Series Preview: Mets Head to Arizona For Critical Series

The Mets play their final games on the West Coast this season as they head to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in a three-game set starting on Tuesday. Before we get into the series, let’s look at what just happened.

Mets Discouragingly Split Padres Series

The Mets were primed to start their 10-game road trip with a 3-1 series win in San Diego. But the team’s two most reliable relievers—José Butto and Edwin Diaz—coughed up a 2-0 lead over the eighth and ninth innings, resulting in a 3-2 Padres win and a series split. Rather than inch two games closer to the Padres in the Wild Card race, they sat on Sunday afternoon right where they started Thursday afternoon. They lost a game to the Braves, too.

During the series, the Mets lost starter Paul Blackburn to the injured list when he was hit on the finger with a comebacker.

What’s the Story?

So now the Mets head to Phoenix further back in the Wild Card race. A month ago, this was shaping up to be the second series in a row with NL Wild Card implications, but as the Mets have treaded water in August with a grueling road schedule, the Padres and D’backs have been on fire. They’re now six and seven games ahead of the Mets, respectively. With 31 games left, the Mets are probably no longer within striking distance. The Braves are the only Wild Card team within reach now, sitting three games ahead of the Mets.

But nevertheless, this series remains critical. They need to rack up wins before they face the Braves at the end of September and remain within 2-3 games by then. (Ideally, they’re within a game or even ahead before that series.)

The Diamondbacks, however, have been the hottest team in baseball since June 1, sitting at 50-24 since then. They (and the Padres) have not only distanced themselves from the backend of the NL Wild Card race, they’re now just three games back of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.

They’ve remained hot with Christian Walker (oblique), Ketel Marte (left ankle sprain), and Gabriel Moreno (groin) all on the injured list and former closer Paul Sewald pitching to a 7.50 ERA since the beginning of July. They’re 12-3 in their last 15 games, with two six-game winning streaks bookending a sweep by the Rays. They’re fresh off a sweep of the Boston Red Sox, who the Mets see next week.

Pitching Matchups

• Tuesday: Sean Manaea (9-5, 3.48) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.94): Manaea is coming off a gem against the Orioles that unraveled in the eighth inning, but he’s been on a hot streak since July 24. He has a 2.78 ERA with an elevated strikeout rate over 35.2 innings since then. Pfaadt, though, has been in a rough patch, allowing 18 runs over his last 29.1 innings (5.46 ERA). He’s a workhorse, though, leading the team in innings. It’ll be tough to knock him out early.
• Wednesday: Luis Severino (9-6, 3.84 ERA) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 4.08 ERA): Severino has allowed just one run over his last 14 innings (including a complete game shut out two starts ago). Rodriguez, on the other hand, made his season debut earlier this month after starting the year with a shoulder strain. He’s pitched to a 3.94 ERA over his first three starts.
• Thursday: TBA vs. Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.29 ERA): This is where Paul Blackburn was supposed to start. The Mets could either call up Tylor Megill for his start, or they could run with a bullpen game. How the first two games go may determine that. Nelson has been another point of consistency for the D’backs’ pitching staff, averaging right around six innings and three runs per start.

Who’s Hot?

Francisco Lindor

Well, he just won Player of the Week, and he’s planted himself firmly atop the fWAR leaderboards. Since the beginning of May, Lindor has been the Mets’ best offensive player and overall player. The team goes as he does, and he’s enjoyed Chase Field in the past, slashing .377/.404/.679/1.083 over 12 games there.

Everyone… Everyone In The Diamondbacks’ Offense

How have the Diamondbacks been able to weather injuries to their two best players, Walker and Marte? Because the rest of the offense picked up the slack, including Corbin Carroll, looked lost for the first three months of the year. The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year is slashing .270/.350/.596/.946 over the last 30 days. But it doesn’t stop with him. Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson, Josh Bell (acquired at the deadline), and Gerardo Perdomo all have an OPS over .900 in August.

The offense as a whole has scored by far the most runs this month, and they’re slashing .293/.372/.513/.885 as a team the last 30 days. The Mets’ pitching staff has their hands full.

Prediction

The fan wants to say this will be a series they win two-of-three, then they’ll sweep the White Sox before heading home. But these Diamondbacks are just crazy hot—especially their offense. I’ll predict they win Manaea’s start Tuesday, they’ll lose the day game Thursday, then it’ll come down to Severino’s ability to control the offense on Wednesday. My gut says the D’backs will get to him. (The White Sox sweep is still in the cards!)

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