Bobby Witt Jr. season should net Royals extra draft pick

A top three MVP finish would bring the Royals a PPI Pick.

Entering the season, it seemed possible but unlikely that Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. could bring an MVP to the City of Fountains. Sure, he was fantastic over 2023’s second half, but I’m not certain anyone expected him to become this good, this fast. Witt’s age-24 season has seen him slash .352/.400/.621 with 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 176 wRC+. By wRC+, it currently sits as the second-best season by a position player in franchise history. Only George Brett posted a higher mark. He finished his 1980 season with a 198 wRC+ — and an MVP.

The impact that Kansas City’s phenom shortstop offers extends beyond the box score and standings as well. The Royals inked Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7 million contract extension this past offseason. That deal ties him to Kansas City for at least seven seasons (it includes player opt-outs in the back half of the deal) and helps to solidify the immediate future. Without free agency looming in 2028, top prospects Jac Caglianone and Blake Mitchell could make their way to the big leagues and spend many years playing alongside Witt. The impact is yet to be fully felt, but his superstar status will also help the team to attract better free-agent talent as well.

Then, there are the more intangible impacts as well. Witt is well on his way to becoming the face of Major League Baseball. Think of what Patrick Mahomes has done for the Chiefs organization and the city. If Witt could do even half of that for the Royals, it would be massive. Jersey sales, additional television revenue, and more nationally televised games all seem likely in the coming years. More immediately, Witt will likely impact the Royals draft class as well.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s standout 2024 season should earn the Royals a PPI Pick in 2025

As reported by Baseball America earlier this year, Bobby Witt Jr. maintains Prospect Promotion Incentive eligibility in 2025. MLB.com lays out how the Promotion Incentive program works here:

In short, an MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.

Witt signed an extension this offseason, but remains eligible for incentive draft picks this season. If a player signs an extension prior to his major league debut, he loses PPI eligibility. They remain eligible if the extension comes after his major league debut (as with Witt, and Corbin Caroll last season). Before the season, it seemed as if Witt was a longer-shot candidate to factor into MVP voting. Now, in mid-August, it looks like a three-horse race to AL MVP between Witt, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto. It would take a serious collapse in production over the season’s final month for Witt to fall out of that conversation.

So what will that look like in 2025 should Witt finish at least in the top three? The Mariners were rewarded the 29th overall pick in 2023 after Julio Rodriguez won Rookie of the Year in 2022. I think the way their draft position landed that summer lines up very similarly to what I expect the Royals will see next summer. The Mariners entered the draft owning the 22nd overall pick, as well as picks 29 (PPI) and 30 (CB-A). Seattle turned those picks into serious prospect capital, selecting Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, and Tai Peete.

Should the Royals make the playoffs, the highest they could pick next summer would be pick 19. Should he finish top three in MVP voting, Witt will give them an additional pick immediately after the first round. That means the Royals would likely end up with two picks in the top 31 selections of the draft. It’s still unclear how the Competitive Balance picks will shake out, but it’s a good bet the Royals made end up with a Competitive Balance Round B selection as well (after round two). That would give the Royals four selections next season in the draft’s Top 75 picks.

The Royals last had four Top-75 picks in 2023 and 2018. That many early selections in next year’s class could go a long way to continue building up a rebuilding farm system. The 2025 draft class is expected to be a noticeably stronger class than we saw in 2024 when the Royals were still able to add the 18th overall prospect in baseball. The future is extremely bright in Kansas City, and Bobby Witt Jr. continues to make that happen in many more ways than one.