Series Preview: Mets Look to Rout Rockies

After righting the ship during a vital makeup game with the St. Louis Cardinals, the New York Mets (59-53) start a three-game series Tuesday in Denver against the Colorado Rockies (41-72).

As of now, the Mets now trail the Braves, Padres, and Diamondbacks, who are all tied for three Wild Card spots, by 1.5 games. As a result, every game must be approached with urgency, as there are a number of other teams in the running for these spots.

That being said, let’s preview the pitching matchups for this week!

Tuesday, August 6, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (7-4, 3.93 ERA) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (3-4, 5.64 ERA)

Luis Severino struggled in his recent start, allowing six runs over three innings. He clearly was not on his game that day, so the hope is that he will turn it around against a weaker Rockies lineup. He used his fastball 42 percent of the time in that outing, and only generated one whiff on 14 swings. Severino is in the 89th percentile for fastball run value on Baseball Savant, so there is potential for that pitch to be effective.

Kyle Freeland has been very ineffective this year, measuring poorly in a number of metrics. He has a 1.51 WHIP, but that is mainly from allowing so many hits, as he walks only 5.8 percent of opposing batters. His average opposing exit velocity is 91.1 miles per hour, placing him in just the third percentile of that category. Furthermore, his 19.1 percent whiff rate places him in the eighth percentile among qualified pitchers. The hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field should help the Mets take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Wednesday, August 7, 2024: RHP Paul Blackburn (5-2, 4.11 ERA) vs. RHP Ryan Feltner (1-10, 4.97 ERA)

Paul Blackburn excelled in his Mets debut, striking out six over six innings. Like Manaea, he altered his pitch mix in this outing by decreasing the usage of his ineffective four seamer. Instead, he used his cutter and changeup as his primary pitches, which yielded favorable results for the right-handed pitcher. In fact, he generated six whiffs out of 13 swings against his changeup. He looks to build upon this solid outing on Wednesday.

Ryan Feltner offers a five-pitch mix headlined by a four seamer and slider. His best pitch is his curveball, which has a .167 opposing batting average and 29.7 percent whiff rate. His other pitches are not strong, contributing to his seventh percentile pitching run value. Also, he does not profile as a strikeout pitcher, with just a 20.1 percent strikeout rate. Feltner is another pitcher that the Mets should have an advantage against this week, especially for beating him up for four runs over 3.2 innings in July.

Thursday, August 8, 2024: LHP David Peterson (5-1, 3.47 ERA) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (3-7, 4.66 ERA)

David Peterson has quietly been very effective this season. He has a 55 percent ground ball rate, which makes up for his underwhelming strikeout numbers. The one flaw in his game this season has been his 10.4 percent walk rate, an issue that plagues several Mets pitchers. Peterson was strong in his last outing, allowing two runs over six innings with four strikeouts.

Austin Gomber offers a four-pitch mix including a four seamer, knuckle curve, changeup, and slider. He does not rely on strikeouts, but demonstrates a strong command of the strike zone with a 5.8 percent walk rate. However, Gomber has struggled in limiting barrels with a 10.4 percent opposing barrel rate. Opponents have specifically succeeded against his four seamer, which has an opposing .620 slugging percentage.

Players to Watch

Jeff McNeil (NYM)

Jeff McNeil has turned his season around, adding another home run to his ledger against St. Louis on Monday. He now has five homers and six doubles 364/.393/.745/1.138 slash line since the All-Star break (61 plate appearances). McNeil hit two doubles in three games against the Rockies in their early July series. Since McNeil measures very well in whiff rate and strikeout rate, he should have the advantage with his swing-heavy approach against the weaker Rockies pitchers in a big Coors Field.

Ezequiel Tovar (COL)

Ezequiel Tovar is batting .318/.319/.545 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 15 games. In addition to his recent hot streak, he was a thorn in the Mets side during their early July series. He went 7-for-13 with three doubles and two home runs in three games. Brenton Doyle for the Rockies also had an insanely hot July, earning him NL Player of the Month honors.

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