Riding High On July 34th

Last night, Vince Cotroneo wisely named it “July 33rd” and sure enough the “6 runs/game in July” A’s put half a dozen runs on the board to run their July record to 16-9. Since the All-Star break, if it isn’t the final game of a series the A’s aren’t losing. 9-4 in the second half and looking like first class spoilers.

The question is: where is this all heading? I know, Sacramento, but have the A’s morphed from an awful team to one on the brink of being truly competitive, or are they just enjoying a long good month?

Part of the skepticism that the A’s could compete in 2025 comes from the realization that Fisher’s Athletics just won’t spend the kind of money needed to stay with the competition. The Kansas City Royals are a decent model for what the A’s hope to do from 2024 to 2025, as last year’s 56-106 team stands 62-49 fighting for a playoff spot.

Two key differences between the Royals and A’s stand out. One is that Kansas City has a bonafide superstar from its draft in shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.348/.396/.600, 7 DRS, 7.7 WAR) and the A’s hoped version of that, Jacob Wilson, is a poor-poor-destitude man’s Witt at best.

But the other reason the Royals have been able to take off in 2024 could be emulated. In the off-season they bolstered their rotation big time with the free agent signing of Seth Lugo. Lugo signed for the type of contract the A’s absolutely could give out: 3 years, $45M. Lugo has been worth every penny so far, anchoring the staff with a 13-5, 2.57 ERA performance over 23 starts and 150.1 IP.

I feel your eyes rolling at the thought the A’s would spend that kind of money on a free agent (or be able to lure one to town). But it’s hardly unprecedented even in the Fisher era. The Fisher era has had several iterations, only the most recent of which has been “don’t spend anything at all on anyone”.

It was Fisher’s A’s who signed Esteban Loaiza to a then reasonably pricey 3 year, $21M deal and who inked Scott Kazmir to a 2 year/$22M contract back when $11M/year was pretty steep. Khris Davis’ ill-fated 2 year/$33.5M extension came relatively recently (2020) under Fisher’s rule.

Imagine adding one front line SP to the 2025 rotation — basically identifying next year’s Lugo and making too competitive an offer for said Lugo to refuse. I don’t know if the A’s plan to try moving Mason Miller back into the rotation in 2025 but if you did you might find yourself with 2 aces ahead of Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Joey Estes et al. Now you’re actually cooking.

Certainly there is some talent around the diamond now, with the arrivals of Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom, the apparent breakout of Lawrence Butler, the ever steady JJ Bleday, and even the dangerous bat of Miguel Andujar, all buoyed by one of the finest DHs in the land, Brent Rooker.

2025 should also see the debuts of two talented outfielders, Colby Thomas and Denzel Clarke, and possibly two intriguing infielders, Max Muncy and Cooper Bowman. The question is largely whether there will be enough starting pitching that is better than “decent” and if you’re looking at 2025 it may require a free agent signing or an off-season trade to add someone not currently in the organization.

Is there any chance the A’s will look to actually spend their revenue sharing money (what a concept) and fortify their roster as the Royals did strategically and shrewdly? It’s worth noting that as penny pinching as Fisher is these days the kind of money we’re talking about with one player’s contract is little compared to the kind of funds he is desperately trying to secure for a new stadium. Lugo may have cost KC $45M over 3 years but his price tag wasn’t $1.5B.

The chance Fisher will allow payroll to rise a bit — perhaps all the way up to 29th in MLB??? — might hinge on how the A’s plan to be perceived in Sacramento. Are they a nameless team with no city on their back, biding time as a forgotten child? Or might they be an exciting team on the rise showing Sacramento, and MLB, how great baseball could be there in the off chance (I give it 80%) that Las Vegas falls through?

The answer may lie in how the A’s ownership is currently feeling, behind closed doors, about their chances of completing the Las Vegas hoodwink. Publicly they keep insisting it’s “full steam ahead” but privately they have to see what the rest of us see: in the words of Elton John, “Mama don’t want you, daddy don’t need you...” The only people who really seem to want to see the A’s land in Las Vegas are John Fisher and Dave Kaval and that won’t fill a stadium.

Maybe there’s enough incentive for the A’s to try to hit the ground running in Sacramento in case that’s the only ground they run into the next few years. Sutter Health Park might only hold 14,000 fans but sold out crowds every game and a winning atmosphere would go a long way to setting the stage for a brand new stadium under the watchful eye and wallet of buddy Vivek Ranadive.

The point here is that in contrast to where the team was a year ago, right now it really appears that in order to be competitive in 2025-26 it won’t take that much. Sure there are holes on the current, and upcoming, roster and no sure things when it comes to young talent — but there are also several key building blocks and some real momentum and a core of legitimate athleticism whose ceilings are high.

Perhaps 2025 will bring pennies pinched only tighter and Sears getting the Opening Day nod as the “grizzled veteran”. But I wouldn’t be too quick to rule out that David Forst might have a few more dollars to work with this off-season with the quest to complete a roster that has at least a chance of taking Sacramento by storm.

Now to pore over the list of 2025 free agents to see who the next Seth Lugo might be...Come to daddy: he needs you.