What Trade Might the Guardians Make This Coming Week?

Looking at past trends

To make an educated guess at what the Cleveland Guardians might do at July 30th's trade deadline, it may be helpful to look at past trades the franchise has pulled off.

Since 2018, the Guardians have traded with the:

Padres - 4 times

Cardinals

Tigers

Blue Jays - 2 times

Pirates

Nationals

Mariners - 2 times

White Sox - 2 times

Mets - 2 times

Marlins - 2 times

Rays - 5 times

Reds - 3 times

Red Sox

Rangers

Astros

Braves

Brewers - 2 times

Twins

Orioles

Diamondbacks

Rockies - 2 times

Dodgers

Yankees

Giants

As far as trends go, I'd say the Guardians are not afraid to make trades and generally willing to do them with anyone (only five teams are not on this list). Interestingly enough, several repeat customers for the Guardians - the White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Blue Jays, and Rays - should all be selling at one level or another this deadline. So, let's assume there is some chemistry between these teams, especially the Rays, Blue Jays and Reds whose front offices have a lot of continuity with the ones who made these earlier trades with Cleveland.

If the Guardians are engaging in talks with the Blue Jays, pitchers Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt could all be under discussion as pitchers who would fit Cleveland’s needs. If the Guardians are talking to the Rays, pitchers Zach Eflin and Zack Littell, and outfielder Randy Arozarena all make sense as potential targets rumored to be available. If it's the Reds... there isn't much at all in the way of pitching available there. But what about switching Gimenez to short and playing Johnathan India at second base? He's not great there, but you can probably put up with that to add a 123 wRC+. It's not likely, but India is certainly the kind of clubhouse presence Cleveland values.

The Guardians have traded with the White Sox, Tigers and Rangers, so... pipe dreams of Garrett Crochet can persist and Erick Fedde remains in play, also Jack Flaherty from the Tigers, as well as Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jon Gray from the Rangers.

The Marlins don't seem to have much to tempt the Guardians unless Cleveland thinks they can fix Edward Cabrera and the Marlins are interested in getting what they can for him while he's been briefly healthy. A return engagement with Cal Quantrill or Ryan Feltner from Colorado could be of interest to Cleveland if there's truly a front office connection there.

Personally, looking at the market, I find it unlikely the Guardians add a bat. But, I do think they'll find a way to find a viable starter. Going off historical trends and current team state, I'm going to predict that the Guardians find their way to the top of the Yusei Kikuchi sweepstakes, giving up both a top 10 (on the Guardians) prospect and a top 20 prospect for him. He's a lefty and a rental with a 3.58 FIP. He's not my top choice (that would be Fedde of the reasonable options), but it's the kind of arm that this club desperately needs to make this journey to playoff baseball possible.