Trade Deadline Decisions Could Hinge On “When Might The A’s Be Good Again?”

This trade deadline, which has just 10 days left to unfold, is different for the A’s than others. In the past Oakland has either been buyers, dangling Jesus Luzardo in order to “go for it” with the acquisition of Starling Marte, or sellers of their soon-to-be-free-agents-anyway, such as Frankie Montas.

There are exceptions that prove the rule, of course, such as spinning reliever Sam Moll for lottery ticket Joe Boyle. The only norm with trades is that there is no norm. Which brings us to the 2024 upcoming deadline...

What stands out this time around is that the A’s biggest trade chips, should they choose to make a significant move in the next 10 days, are players with quite a bit of contract control. Which means players who could, if they stay, be part of the next competitive A’s team — assuming the A’s are poised to be good anytime soon.

Don’t ever be fooled by how a team looks over any 5 game stretch. The A’s are not the team that has gone 4-1 since they landed in Philadelphia for a series against the team with MLB’s best record. Yet it’s hard not to be encouraged by signs of life as Oakland put 39 runs on the board over its last 3 games, led by one of their young hopefuls, Lawrence Butler, and featuring the debut of top prospect Jacob Wilson.

Primary Trade Chips

Back to the trade chips, there are 2 primary ones being discussed. One is the 29 year old Brent Rooker, who is under contract through 2028. The other is 25 year old Mason Miller, under contract through 2029.

Considerations around moving one or both of these two players doesn’t just involve the question of what the A’s can get back. It also is intertwined with the question of whether the A’s are a year away, or two years away, or several years away, from competing. And this is a difficult one to answer.

Partly it’s difficult because unlike most teams, the A’s don’t come with any expectation of spending real money anytime soon — even though their revenue sharing agreement overtly demands it. So you can’t expect Oakland to finish a rebuild by inking a top SP from the free agent market or taking on a sizable contract in order to fill a needed hole on the diamond.

Projecting The “Sacramento-Era” A’s

And then partly it’s hard to project the 2025-27 A’s because the immediate future rests in the hands of unproven players, from the enigmatic Zack Gelof to the talented but immature Tyler Soderstrom to the only recently emerging Butler to the man with a career 1.000 batting average — in one at bat — Wilson.

If the A’s are close to turning the corner and competing in the relative near future then it makes sense to keep Rooker and/or Miller as cost-controlled players who won’t break the bank anytime soon. But if not then cashing in on their value might be necessary, especially if you think Miller’s arm is ticking time bomb about to explode and that Rooker’s age makes him a great hitter with a short prime that isn’t going sustain for very long.

My take is that the current A’s are too flawed to be considered “about to be good,” especially when you look at the starting pitching, and yet improvement could come suddenly and rapidly with an infusion of legitimate talent that is now just 1-2 steps away from arriving.

The Worrisome Reality

The A’s rotation, even with a healthy Paul Blackburn, is pretty mediocre with little on the way. Right now the immediate future, i.e., 2025, looks like Blackburn-Sears-Spence-Estes-Harris, which is downright uninspiring: at best it might be a #3 SP followed by a bunch of “decent back of the rotation guys”.

With Luis Medina most likely headed for Tommy John surgery, and not having proven he can be a consistent SP anyway, the immediate help behind these 5 looks like Oswaldo Bido, Brady Basso, and eventually the attempted return of TJS survivor Ken Waldichuk.

As far as SP who could slot in any higher than the middle of a good rotation, unless you’re pinning your hopes on the already injured and always inconsistent Royber Salinas, you have to wait for Luis Morales and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang, both still in A-ball. That is, unless you foresee Miller himself staying healthy as a starting pitcher in which case your ace might already be on the roster.

The Exciting Landscape

There are scenarios where the A’s become a force all over the diamond in the next two years. Here is a group that is not just talented, but also on balance extremely athletic with significant upside:

C - Shea Langeliers with Daniel Susac arriving by 2026
1B - Tyler Soderstrom with Nick Kurtz on the fast track
2B - Zack Gelof with Darell Hernaiz as a ready fall back
SS - Jacob Wilson
3B - Max Muncy
LF - Colby Thomas
CF - Denzel Clarke
RF - Lawrence Butler
DH - Brent Rooker
Depth - Esteury Ruiz (OF), Max Schuemann (UTL), Hernaiz (INF), JJ Bleday (OF)

Not only is there a bevy of real talent there, but in most cases also a Plan B that is potentially as good if Plan A stumbles.

So yes, perhaps 2024 Gelof is real and 2023 Gelof the mirage, but Hernaiz might be really good as an every day 2Bman. Maybe Thomas doesn’t emerge as a starting LFer, but Bleday is already in house as a very solid player best suited to that position. If Soderstrom doesn’t prove to be a great hitter culled with a first round pick, perhaps Kurtz does. And so on.

I may find it hard to squint and see the A’s challenging for anything but respectability in 2025, but at the same time I don’t have to squint to see a 2026 team I can get truly excited about, at least around the diamond.

The $64,000 Question (Too Rich For Fisher’s Blood)

Could 2025 be the A’s 2017 redux, when Matts Chapman and Olson were arriving mid-season to make a mediocre team good in the second half? Could 2026 be the A’s 2018 redux, with Clarke, Muncy, and Kurtz leading the charge into a return to actual contention?

I don’t know the answers to these questions, as prospects are inherently flawed and hard to predict and none more so than the electric-but-raw Clarke and the entirely untested Kurtz. Luckily, I don’t need to know the answers. But the A’s front office does and they need to know it over the next 10 days even though it won’t play out for 2 years.

The Zag...

One final thought. There has been ample focus on Rooker and Miller, along with Miguel Andujar, who is not under contract as long and could fetch something mildly interesting.

Rarely mentioned, if ever, is JJ Bleday but Bleday has the appeal, for other clubs, of having 4 years of contract control left after this season and he is having a breakout season of sorts at age 26 (.232/.313/.431, 114 wRC+, tied for 4th in the league with 27 doubles).

Meanwhile, with Thomas, Clarke, and right behind them Henry Bolte, in the mix along with Butler and Ruiz, the A’s could deal Bleday and still have a high ceiling for the outfield they will have in 2025-26. You wonder if that’s where conversations should turn, rather than with the players more often mentioned in upcoming trade discussions.

Should be an interesting journey to the end of July, 2024 in Oakland with a keen eye on April, 2026 in Sacramento.