Series Preview: Guardians at Blue Jays
It’s time to head north of the border
The Guardians will meet another sub .500 team this week. Uh-oh.
The Guardians enter the series against the Blue Jays at 43-23 with a +90 run differential, eighth in MLB with a 107 wRC+, 22nd in baserunning runs above average at -2.5, ninth in Defensive WAR at 1.2, 28th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.52, and first in bullpen FIP at 2.65.
The Blue Jays are 33-35 with a -35 run differential, 17th in MLB with a 96 wRC+, 25th in baserunning runs above average at -3.4, first in Defensive WAR at 11.5, 15th in starting pitcher FIP at 3.95, and last in bullpen FIP at 4.99. Needless to say, the Guardians should try to get Toronto starting pitchers out of the game as soon as possible to get to the Blue Jays pen, while Toronto should try to get to Guardians’ starters early and often.
Matchups:
Game One: Logan Allen, LHP (5.50 FIP) vs. Kevin Gausman, RHP (3.39 FIP), Friday, June 14th, 7:07PM EST,
Analysis: Gausman has been good. Logan Allen has not. The Guardians’ best hitters will need to get to Gausman or get him out of the game by driving up pitch counts, so look to Daniel Schneemann at 216 wRC+, David Fry at 189 wRC+, Steven Kwan at 184 wRC+, Jose Ramirez at 146 wRC+, Josh Naylor at 122 wRC+, Tyler Freeman at 98 wRC+ and Andres Gimenez at 96 wRC+ to help.
Game Two: Carlos Carrasco, RHP (4.98 FIP) vs. TBD, Saturday, June 15th, 3:07PM EST
Analysis: Cookie will need to keep the Blue Jays in check enough for the Guardians to get to whoever the Blue Jays send to the mound. We will see how Carrasco matches up against the Blue Jays’ best hitters who are Danny Jansen at 133 wRC+, Vladimar Guerrero Jr. at 128 wRC+, Davis Schneider at 116 wRC+, and Daulton Varsho at 115 wRC+.
Game Three: Ben Lively, RHP (3.86 FIP) vs. Jose Berrios, RHP (4.56 FIP), Sunday, June 16th, 1:37 PM EST
Analysis: Here, this looks like a matchup heavily in Cleveland’s favor, but because of Toronto’s defense, I’d expect that Berrios is closer to his 4.09 xFIP because of the Blue Jays amazing defense. Mainly, we’re just happy Lively is scheduled to make this start after a bit of a health scare.