Series Preview: Mets Head to Cleveland to Face Guardians

For the next stop on their road trip, the New York Mets (21-25) head to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (30-17).

Over the weekend, the Mets only won one out of their three games against the Miami Marlins. While they had a sizable lead during Saturday’s game, closer Edwin Díaz allowed four earned runs in the ninth inning to send the game to extra innings. Consequently, the Mets lost that game, causing the team to reflect on their closer situation.

Now, the Mets are committed to regaining Díaz’s confidence through low-leverage opportunities while opening the closer role to pitchers like Adam Ottavino and Reed Garrett.

As for the Guardians, they swept their division rival Minnesota Twins in three games over the weekend. In each game, they received excellent performances from their starting pitchers. Their bullpen has also been exceptional, so the Mets will be in for a difficult week at the plate.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, May 20, 2024: RHP Tylor Megill (0-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. RHP Ben Lively (2-2, 3.06 ERA)

Tylor Megill will make his return from injury on Monday. This season brought a lot of excitement for Megill as he made several adjustments heading into it. Megill introduced a cutter while increasing his split finger usage in his one start this season. In his last two rehab starts with the Syracuse Mets, he tossed 9 1/3 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. He looks to continue on that path as he returns to the rotation.

Ben Lively has been solid to begin the year, but his advanced statistics indicate that it may be short-lived. He primarily uses his sinker and is in just the second percentile in ground ball rate and the seventh percentile for average exit velocity. He has not exactly generated strikeouts either, with just a 23.1 percent rate in that department. Lively’s primary pitches have been hit particularly hard, as his sinker and fastball have average exit velocities of 92.9 mph and 95 mph. The Mets should look to make solid contact early in the count against Lively, as he has generally had more success with his secondary pitches this season.

Tuesday, May 21, 2024: RHP Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.44 ERA) vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 5.16 ERA)

Adrian Houser will get another chance in the rotation after being demoted to the bullpen recently. Houser, a potential DFA candidate, must prove his worth to this Mets team if he wants to remain on the roster once injured pitchers like David Peterson and Kodai Senga return. His chances are not looking great, as he has struck out just 10.8 percent of the batters he has faced. While Houser has never profiled as a strikeout pitcher, his pitch-to-contact strategy has warranted hard-hit contact at a 40.9 percent rate.

Former Mets pitcher Carlos Carrasco will pitch for his original team on Tuesday. Carrasco has reduced the usage of his five other pitches to make room for a sweeper that he has used at a 5.8 percent clip this season. This adjustment has proved beneficial for Carrasco, as the sweeper has a whiff rate of 33.3 percent. Beyond that, Carrasco has struggled with limiting hard contact, as indicated by his hard-hit rate of 40.6 percent. The Mets will look to use their familiarity with Carrasco to their advantage in Tuesday’s game, as they will likely need all the runs they can get.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (1-4, 5.21 ERA) vs. RHP Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.23 ERA)

Jose Quintana has continued to struggle to begin the year. He is striking out just 15.5 percent of the batters he faces, in addition to his hard-hit rate of 47.1 percent. This combination is troubling for a pitcher who has relied on soft contact throughout his career. He looks to improve against Cleveland, a team he has a 2.74 ERA against.

Triston McKenzie has been effective this season. While his numbers appear solid, his profile paints a more accurate picture of his abilities. He relies on three pitches: a four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. He has increased his curveball usage this year, which has warranted good results. Opponents are batting just .160 against it with a whiff rate of 34.9 percent. On the contrary, his fastball has not been very effective, with an expected batting average of .324 and a whiff rate of just 11.3 percent. Perhaps McKenzie should add a changeup to his repertoire, which could help to work off his fastball.

Players to Watch

J.D. Martinez (NYM)

After a slow start to begin his Mets career, J.D. Martinez finally looks like himself at the plate. In his last seven games, he is batting .393/.433/.607 with 11 hits, a home run, and six RBIs. His OPS for the season is .825, which is more consistent with his career .873 OPS. His profile indicates that this success is sustainable, as he has a 91.6 mph average exit velocity, a 13.5 percent barrel rate, and a 48.1 percent hard-hit rate. The strikeouts, however, have been a problem for J.D., as he is striking out at a 26.6 percent rate and chasing at a 37.4 percent rate.

Andrés Giménez (CLE)

Former Mets infielder Andrés Giménez has been on a tear in his last seven games, batting .464/.484/.714 with 13 hits, two home runs and eight RBIs. To go along with that, Giménez is in the 99th percentile with six Outs Above Average and ranks in the 89th percentile for sprint speed. He looks to continue his success all around the diamond against his former team this week.

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