A trade deadline tightrope lies ahead for the Royals

How can they improve without truly going “all-in?”

As we inch closer to June, trade talk has started to pick up among MLB fans. This is especially true for Royals fans, but not for the same reasons that we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Years past saw the Royals out of contention by late May, much less late July. This season, of course, that’s different. The Royals are currently right in the thick of the American League Central race. They’ve been much better than anyone initially expected. Fangraphs now gives the Royals a 35% chance to make the playoffs.

With the team in contention, talk around the trade deadline won’t center around which players they can sell. Instead, it’ll focus on which players the team can buy to aid a run down the stretch. Granted, a lot could happen between now and July’s deadline. One thing’s for certain: no matter what happens between now and July 30th, the Royals’ deadline scenario will be a tightrope of sorts. The team will have to balance improving this year’s team without sacrificing much of the future in the process.

The 2024 deadline will be a balancing act for J.J. Picollo and Co.

Although the Royals are in a position to contend for the division — and add talent to do so — the team doesn’t have the prospect capital or long-term flexibility to acquire names atop the trade market. The farm system has a lot of bright spots to start the season, but it hasn't been rebuilt to the point that Kansas City’s front office can “buy” expensive talent. Blake Mitchell currently ranks as the 73rd overall prospect in baseball but stands alone as the only Royal in the Top 100. Outfielder Gavin Cross looks to be on the upswing once again, but selling low on the former first-round pick won’t be worth it.

Throwing another wrench in the upcoming deadline strategy is the team’s win-loss record. Winning is never a bad thing, but the Royals competitive window is only just opening. The team’s goal should be to widen that competitive window to keep 2024 from becoming just another flash-in-the-pan season. There lies the current dilemma as we approach the trade deadline. First off, the team hasn’t quite built a deep enough big-league roster that allows them to trade from any real strength. They also haven’t developed the farm system enough to immediately supplement the big league roster should they trade any pieces.

Long story short, the Royals need to improve the big-league roster without prospects from the farm system to either supplement with or trade from. The team did well this offseason, spending on key free agents to improve the team’s roster. However, that spending spree was just a side effect of the struggling farm system. This trade deadline predicament is just another symptom caused by the same thing.

Improving the roster while walking the tightrope

Although the margins are slim, the trade deadline still needs to welcome some much-needed reinforcements to the Royals’ roster. It’s unlikely the team will be able to win bidding wars for the top names this summer. Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Randy Arozarena are names that could be dangled in trade talks. They’re also names that the Royals don’t have the capital to afford.

Instead, the team will have to improve in more creative ways, finding both under-the-radar help and added value at a lower cost. The Royals starting rotation has been among the best in the American League and doesn’t figure to be a focal point. Sure, teams can always use more pitching but there are greater needs elsewhere on the roster. The bullpen has been solid as well, and the same applies there as with the rotation. That leaves the lineup, which is the clear shortcoming of this team thus far.

Entering May 14, the Royals are tenth in runs scored, but rank 22nd with a 94 team wRC+. They’ve received 5.7 fWAR from the offense — Bobby Witt Jr. (2.7) and Salvador Perez (1.7) account for most of that. The lineup isn’t deep, and it’s a Salvy slump away from being a more serious problem. Kansas City ranks 14th with a .242 team average. They’re 25th with a 7.6% walk rate. The result is a middling .304 on-base percentage, good for 20th in baseball. The Royals don’t strike out much at all, but they need a larger on-base presence to deepen the big-league lineup and provide more support beyond the big three of Salvy, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Bobby Witt Jr.

With all of the above in mind, there are still a handful of names that make sense for Kansas City while still being realistic. The Cardinals, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Angels look like solid trade partners this summer, based on their current team record and pieces on their roster that may be available. Here is a look at a couple of trades that could fit the bill:

Royals acquire 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the Cardinals for RHP Eric Cerantola, 2B Javier Vaz, and SS Austin Charles

The Cardinals aren’t likely to contend this season following a pretty uninspiring offseason. They’re currently in last place in the NL Central and 7.5 games out of first. Goldschmidt is far from his former self, at now 36 years old. Entering Tuesday, he was slashing .199/.284/.278. Despite the slow start, he’s still hitting the ball hard (78th percentile average exit velocity). Finally, he’s making $20 million this season in the final year of his five-year contract. The Cardinals don’t seem all too keen on extending him either. The result is an aging former superstar on a slow start.

Beyond the current slash line, “Goldy” offers plenty of intangible support. He’s yet another veteran presence with playoff experience.

As far as the return heading to St. Louis, the Royals are going to have to give up talent to get talent. Eric Cerantola has electric stuff with questions in his command. He’s started the season with a solid 1.54 ERA over 23.1 IP and selling high would be a smart move. Pairing him with high-risk, high-reward infielder Austin Charles and a spark plug like Javier Vaz could entice the Cardinals enough.

Royals acquire OF JJ Bleday from the Athletics for 3B Cayden Wallace, RHP Mason Barnett, RHP Henry Williams, and LHP Tyson Guerrero

Bleday, a former fourth overall pick, has struggled throughout his major league career until this season. So far in 2024, he’s slashed .255/.333/.448. The real draw here for Kansas City is an above-average walk rate and plus raw power. Bleday lives above a 10.0% walk rate consistently and always has. He has a 20-30 home run upside to go with that and would do a nice job lengthening the lineup. The cost will be fairly steep, however, as Bleday doesn’t hit arbitration until 2026. He won’t be a free agent until 2029.

With so much team control, the Royals are giving up a solid haul to Oakland. Headlining the return is the team’s second-overall prospect, Cayden Wallace. Wallace has all the tools to be a solid everyday third baseman at the plate that plays above-average defense. With him goes a trio of arms, including last year’s Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year. The Royals have enough depth in High-A and Low-A that they can afford to deal from some of that pitching surplus in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

Royals acquire OF Mauricio Dubón from the Astros for 2B Peyton Wilson and RHP Steven Zobac

Dubón is as prototypical “Royal” as they come. He’d fit right in with the current lineup, offering high contact skills while limiting strikeouts. Among hitters with at least 50 PA this season, Dubón ranks second to only Luis Arraez with a 7.4% K%. Arraez, of course, was recently traded to San Diego after the Royals showed interest. Compare the two players below:

• Luis Arraez: .301/.349/.370, 5.3% BB%, 7.0% K%, .069 ISO, .324 wOBA, 109 wRC+
• Mauricio Dubón: .303/.330/.416, 3.2% BB%, 7.4% K%, .112 ISO, .328 wOBA, 113 wRC+

The two players are eerily similar so it would only make sense that the Royals would have interest in Dubón. Defensively, Dubón offers much more value than Arraez. He’s played left field, center field, second base, and third base this season. The Astros are heading into a clear transition phase with a rough start and stars like Bregman set to hit free agency. Dubón hits arbitration this offseason and is a free agent in 2027. In return, the Royals send Wilson and Zobac. Both players have sneaky good upside but aren’t prospects the Royals can’t afford to lose.

Wilson is 24 in his second stint at Double-A. He performed well last season and his return to Northwest Arkansas seems more of an attempt to maintain trade value than it is to continue his development at the level. Zobac profiles best as a reliever at the next level, but he has a solid fastball and the potential to stick in a rotation if he can develop further.