Series Preview: Mets Prepare for Four-Game Series Against Phillies

After a dramatic walk-off victory to avoid a series sweep against the Braves, the New York Mets (19-20) will face the Philadelphia Phillies (28-13).

The layout of this series is unusual, as the teams will play two games at Citi Field, followed by two more at Citizens Bank Park. This scheduling procedure ensures that the teams will play an even amount of home and away games ahead of their series in London next month.

The Phillies have been on an incredible run to start the season, leading the National League East Division. Most recently, they are coming off a series in which they won two out of three games against the Marlins. Their starting pitching has been highly effective, so the Mets will be in for a tough series this week.

That said, let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, May 13, 2024: LHP Cristopher Sánchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA)

Cristopher Sánchez has been stellar to begin the season. His 61.8 percent ground ball rate and 3.8 percent barrel rate indicate that he avoids hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground. While his sinker has been his weakest pitch, his auxiliary pitches have carried the freight for him. His changeup and slider have generated whiff rates of 41.7 percent and 30.6 percent.

Sean Manaea has been shaky to begin the year. He has struggled with walks and ground balls, owning a 12.5 percent walk rate and 32 percent ground ball rate. As a predominantly sinker pitcher, Manaea relies on inducing ground balls to be at his best form. Since switching his sinker to his primary pitch, Manaea has generated an average launch angle of 17 degrees with it, which is far from ideal in generating favorable outcomes.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024: RHP Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA) vs. RHP José Buttó (1-2, 3.00 ERA)

Aaron Nola, while effective, has not been his usual self to begin the year. Nola has had difficulty limiting hard contact, with a hard-hit rate of 37.9 percent. Furthermore, his changeup and cutter have not been as effective as last season. Opponents are batting .316 and .429 against the two pitches, compared to figures of .220 and .246 last year. Also, his whiff rates of 31.9 percent and 30.1 percent for each pitch have decreased to 14.6 percent and 17.1 percent to start this season. Nola will look to figure out why these pitches are not working or switch to a game plan that would allow him to use his primary pitches more often.

José Buttó has taken advantage of his extended opportunity in the Mets rotation. In six starts, Buttó owns a 3.00 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 33 innings. If the right-handed pitcher wants to remain in the Mets rotation when the other pitchers return, he must lower his 12.6 percent walk rate. When this figure is combined with his 43.2 percent hard-hit rate, it could become problematic for Buttó, as hard contact does more damage with runners on base. One area where he has excelled is in the swing-and-miss department, with a 30.8 percent whiff rate.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024: LHP José Quintana (1-4, 5.44 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (7-0, 1.50 ERA)

José Quintana has struggled in recent play. While he is generating a ground ball rate of 48.2 percent, Quintana is allowing hard-hit balls at a 46 percent rate. Also, he is not fooling any batters with his 18.1 percent whiff rate and 15.1 percent strikeout rate. Throughout his career, Quintana has been at his best when inducing soft contact that stays on the ground. He looks to return to that form with a better approach against the Phillies.

Ranger Suárez has been exceptional to begin the season, emerging as the ace of the rotation. His average exit velocity is just 83.2 percent, with a hard-hit rate of just 28.2 percent. He’s generating soft contact and striking out batters at a 28.1 percent rate while limiting the walks to just a 4.1 percent rate. One major catalyst for his success this season could be the lower velocity and spin rate of his changeup. Compared to last season’s figures of a .267 batting average and 31.1 percent whiff rate, opponents are hitting just .029 against his changeup with a 38.9 percent whiff rate. He looks to continue his ace-like production against a light-hitting Mets lineup.

Thursday, May 16, 2024: RHP Christian Scott (0-1, 2.84 ERA) vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (3-0, 4.82 ERA)

Christian Scott is still looking for his first MLB victory. His lack of a victory is certainly not an indictment on his performance, as he has been stellar in his first two starts. His 33.3 percent whiff rate and three percent barrel rate indicate he is missing bats and generating soft contact. Scott offers a four-pitch repertoire headlined by a four-seam fastball that has induced a whiff rate of 37 percent. This Phillies lineup will serve as another test of his capabilities at this level.

Former Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker has been shaky to begin his 2024 campaign. He did spend some time away from the team due to injury, so his slow start could be attributed to that. Nevertheless, Walker has excelled in the walk department with a walk rate of just 5.2 percent. However, he has not performed in any other area. The most notable issues for Walker have been his 18 percent whiff rate and 26.8 percent ground ball rate. As a sinker pitcher, Walker is at his best when he is keeping the ball on the ground.

Players to Watch

Sean Reid-Foley (NYM)

Sean Reid-Foley has quietly been off to a great start this year, allowing no earned runs in 8 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. While this success has come in a small sample size in low-leverage situations, it is still a positive sign for the right-handed reliever. His ground ball rate of 69.2 percent and whiff rate of 38.6 percent show that he is inducing favorable contact and missing a lot of bats.

He has not made any visual adjustments, as he continues to offer a three-pitch repertoire headlined by a four-seam fastball. However, as someone who is not too far removed from Tommy John Surgery, Reid-Foley could have turned a corner in his recovery. Often, pitchers take a little longer to reach their full potential after receiving the operation. Either way, manager Carlos Mendoza should reward the passionate reliever with higher-leverage opportunities in the wake of his strong start to the season.

Bryson Stott (PHI)

In the absence of shortstop Trea Turner, Bryson Stott has stepped up to fill the void. In his last seven games, Stott is batting .455/.581/.682 with ten hits, nine RBIs, eight walks, and four stolen bases. Stott’s 19.7 percent whiff rate and 17.3 percent strikeout rate indicate he is not missing very often, while his 12 percent walk rate shows he is not swinging at bad pitches. When Stott gets on base, which has been frequent lately, his 91st percentile sprint speed makes him a major threat on the bases. For a Mets team plagued by the stolen base, Stott’s abilities present a dangerous possibility for this series.

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