There’s hope for the Cincinnati Reds offense, right? Right?

The last 30 days have been completely abysmal at the plate.

The Cincinnati Reds have lost 8 games in a row. They’ve lost 9 of 10, 11 of 13, and only once in that stretch have their pitchers allowed more than 6 runs in a game. The pitching hasn’t been world class - they’ve yielded 60 runs across that 13 game stretch - but it’s been cromulent enough that a team with something, anything offensively should have been able to scrape out a few more victories.

The Reds offense, however, is simply not up to snuff. They’ve scored 34 runs in that time, with yesterday’s 4 run outburst in the loss to Arizona the most they’d scored in a game in a week.

The last 30 days have seen Nick Martini’s would-be Disney story from his bit-part heroics of last year (and Opening Day) turn back into a pumpkin. Matt McLain and Noelvi Marte were already afterthoughts, and the fracture in Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s hand/wrist means he, too, will now be shelved for over a month. Jake Fraley got sick twice (and lost 10 lbs), and TJ Friedl only just got back this week after a broken wrist cost him the first 30+ games of the season.

Those evil fruits conspired to produce a death-spiral of suck at the plate. Over the last 30 days, the Reds team wOBA of .270 has been worsted by only the Pittsburgh Pirates (.255). Their team wRC+ of 67 tells a similar tale - only Pittsburgh’s 61 has been more putrid (and for you old timers, their team batting average of .192 is, in fact, the worst of all 30 teams).

I’ve been trying to find a silver lining in this all, and it’s been admittedly tough. About the closest caveat that gives me some hope is that their team BABIP of .235 in that span is both a) comically low and b) the single lowest mark of the 30 MLB clubs by .016 means that there has been luck involved, and the luck has not been good. That said, there’s still enough evidence around that ‘bad luck’ that makes me wonder just how much more we really should have expected from how this offense has performed.

Take, for instance, their hard-hit rate. The basic theory of BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play - is a big reason why exit velocity and launch angle have become the big, shiny new statistics everyone follows. The premise there is easy: the harder you hit a ball and the more perfect angle at which you launch it, the harder it’s going to be for a defender to get to it and turn it into an out. In other words, if the Reds were out there smashing the ball hard more often than most and still sporting a low BABIP, you’d hope the God of Regression would turn that tide sooner than later.

Thing is, Cincinnati’s 26.8% hard-hit rate over the last 30 days ranks as the 3rd lowest among all 30 clubs. They’ve got the 7th highest rate of soft contact, too, and as I mentioned the other day, their 43.7% pull rate ranks as the highest in all of baseball. Even with reductions on shifting, teams naturally play hitters to pull the ball, and pitchers pitch to induce pull contact more often than not, meaning that’s what they really hope you do. So, the Reds are playing into the defensive scheme more than anyone else while also producing a damning lack of hard contact and frequent soft contact.

As Statcast confirms, the Reds are the owners of the second-fewest balls hit with exit velocities over 95 mph so far this season. Their 88.0 mph average exit velocity ranks as 4th lowest.

That hardly seems to be prompting the God of Regression to turn the tide. The wonder is, then, whether the current crop of Reds has what it takes to simply recreate themselves, since it doesn’t appear to be a collective case of what we’re doing should have worked but we just got unlucky!

While that’s all doom and gloom, the Reds do have two very important things working in their favor so far. They’re the owners of a 9.5% walk rate that ranks 5th best in the game, and their baserunning has been rated as the 2nd most valuable among all 30 clubs. And while I do not expect Mike Ford to suddenly morph into a walks/steals machine, it’s worth noting that both CES and Martini held the lowest BB% (3.3 and 2.3, respectively) on the active roster before being replaced - and neither stole a base all year. In other words, in lieu of the Reds picking up hits with more aplomb, perhaps it’s time they leaned harder into what it is that they do do well - take walks, and take bases via stealing.

Friedl, while not a hard-hit machine, can certainly help get on and get himself over more than the bats the Reds just lopped off the roster. If the Reds can use the flexibility of Spencer Steer to get more reps at 1B and keep an OF of Friedl, Will Benson, and Jake Fraley on the field more often than not, they’ve suddenly got the chance to lean very, very hard into a lineup built on patience at the plate and incandescence on the bases.

Until the cavalry arrives later this summer, that may be their best bet to get the offense back up off the mat.