Mets Ranked No. 1 Team Following Free Agency
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN ran 10,000 simulations on the 2023 baseball season now that all the top free agents are off the board.
Their result?
The New York Mets are the best team in baseball.
Here’s what ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle was able to find out:
Projected wins: 102.8
Playoff odds: 98%
Title odds: 18% (up 6.8%)
Aggression rank: 1
Improvement rank: 2The Mets certainly have been busy. And while you can say the spate of rotation moves has largely resulted in a wash — Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga in; Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker out — the addition of Carlos Correa (assuming the sides can work through the medical issue that arose during Correa’s physical) has put this New York offseason into the stratosphere. Despite the addition of Verlander, much of the Mets’ gain might come on hitting side, and not just because of Correa but also because of the on-paper upgrade catcher Omar Narvaez represents at the plate, where Mets ranked 22nd in WAR last season, per Baseball-Reference.com. The Mets’ bullpen certainly looks like a deeper unit behind Edwin Diaz as well, especially after Adam Ottavino reupped with the team last week. It still all has to work on the field, and this is an old roster. The payroll of course is beyond bloated. But the depth of frontline veteran talent on these Mets is staggering.
So there you have it. The Mets are projected for the most wins in baseball with 103, are a lock to make the playoffs, and have improved their odds to win a title despite the losses of multiple free agents.
Following the Mets in Doolittle’s simulations are:
2. San Diego Padres (99.9 wins)
3. New York Yankees (99.4 wins)
4. Atlanta Braves (99.2 wins)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (94.4 wins)
Doolittle also ranked teams based on how “aggressive” they were in free agency, where he counts quantity and quality. The “improvement” rank considered how much the team did to better itself on its 2023 outlook. The Mets aced the test.
Of course these simulations are done with the addition of Carlos Correa. Owner Steve Cohen was right, the Mets needed one more splash to put them to the top and this was the move that did it.
Obviously, things change during the regular season and no one can perfectly predict the MLB season but as of now go around declaring how you root for the best team in baseball.
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