Manageable Intangibles

One of the great mysteries of pitcher prognostication is the volume of innings pitched. Pop quiz hotshot: who had the second-best fastball in MLB last year? Answer: Ranger Suarez. How many runs better was his fastball in 2021 than 2020? An astounding 27 runs. How cool is that? OK, how many innings did he pitch in 2021? 106. That's...a few. How about 2020? Oh, 4 innings pitched. I see the conundrum. Imagine you reach into your swear jar and pick out a quarter and start flipping it, and 8 times out of 10 it lands heads. Did you just find a weighted coin? IS IT COUNTERFEIT? Do you have magic hands? Or did you just need to flip the coin, say, 100 times for it to end up 53 heads and 47 tails? Even if it ended up heads 53% of the time, do you think you've discovered a magical coin that gives you 3% advantage over the field (which pro gamblers would slit your throat for), or do you think that hot streak at the start weighted the final results? What if you flipped it, say, 200 times? Do you want to take that bet that your swear jar coin is going to have a 53% heads rate after another 100 flips? Suddenly this pop quiz is more quiz and less pop...