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MMO Free Agent Profile: Tommy Pham, OF

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MMO Free Agent Profile: Tommy Pham, OF

Tommy Pham

Position: OF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 3/8/1988 (33)

Traditional Stats: 155 G, .229/.340/.383, 24 2B, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB
Advanced Stats: 1.4 WAR, 13.9 BB%, – 5 OAA, 103 OPS+, 47.6 HardHit%

Rundown

Tommy Pham was drafted in the sixteenth round of the 2006 MLB Draft out of Durango High School in Las Vegas. His minor league career was hampered by injuries and he didn’t make his big league debut until 2014.

The injury struggles continued during both the 2015 and 2016 seasons as he appeared in just a combined 130 games. He came into his own during a breakout 2017 campaign.

Pham was finally able to put together close to a fully healthy season and finished eleventh in National League MVP voting. He hit .306 with a .411 OBP, .931 OPS, 144 OPS+, 22 doubles, 23 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

Pham finished in the 80th percentile or better in the following categories; max exit velocity, average exit velocity, sprint speed, xwOBA, xBA, HardHit%, walk rate, chase rate, and outs above average.

In his age 29 season, Pham looked like one of the elite all-around players in the game. After his breakout campaign, Pham started the 2018 season as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder. He struggled a bit but still stayed relatively productive.

Pham was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2018 trading deadline. In just 39 games in a Rays uniform, Pham returned to his breakout form. He hit seven homers and seven doubles while stealing five bases and producing a 194 OPS+ and 1.071 OPS.

He spent the next season playing with the Rays and was again a very productive piece at the top of their lineup. Pham appeared in 145 games and hit .273 with a .369 OBP, .818 OPS, 33 doubles, 21 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

He was again traded that offseason, this time to the San Diego Padres, along with utility man Jake Cronenworth. Pham missed a month during the pandemic shortened season due to a hand injury and struggled when he was on the field.

This past season with the Padres he appeared in 155 games. During that span, he hit .229 with a .340 OBP, .724 OPS, 103 OPS+, 24 doubles, 15 home runs, and 14 stolen bases. While the numbers aren’t the prettiest, Pham’s advanced metrics show he hit into some tough luck.

His average exit velocity finished in the 77th percentile, his hard-hit percentage finished in the 84th percentile, his xwOBA was in the 74th, and both his walk rate and chase rate were in the 95th percentile or better.

While Pham showed some signs of decline and has had his fair share of injury issues, he presents some bounce-back potential for the 2022 season. The late-bloomer should have plenty of suitors lining up once the lockout is lifted as either a depth option or even a starter.

Contract

Entering his age 34 season, Pham is hitting free agency for the first time in his career. He’s coming off a bit of a down year at the plate, but still showed some signs of potential upside for this season.

After his struggles and due to his age, Pham will likely have to settle for a one-year deal with a potential option or even a straight-up two-year deal.

Fangraphs projects he’ll receive that two-year deal worth around $20 million.

Pham is represented by Vayner Sports, their other clients include former Met Justin Turner, Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk, and right-handed relievers Roberto Osuna and James Karinchak.

Pham should have a decent list of suitors lining up to bring him in when the lockout is finally lifted. Some potential fits include the Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, and Boston Red Sox amongst others.

Recommendation

Obviously pitching will be the Mets’ main priority once the lockout is finally lifted, and rightfully so. Two of the biggest holes on this team as currently constructed are the starting rotation and bullpen.

While that will be the main focus, one of the other things they need to address is the depth of this current roster. As we saw with all of the injuries last season, there’s no such thing as too much depth.

On a low-cost one or two-year deal, Pham is definitely a guy that could make sense for the Mets. Pham is one of those guys who brings so much to the table to help his team win ballgames.

As he showed last season with his 14 stolen bases and decent sprint speed (69th percentile), Pham can still get it done on the base paths. He is also a proven professional hitter (career .364 OBP and .810 OPS) and has crushed southpaws (.854 OPS, 112 OPS+) over his career.

On top of that, while he’s shown some signs of decline in the field, Pham does have the ability to play all three outfield positions.  And lastly, like each of the Mets’ signings so far this offseason, the 33-year old would be another quality veteran addition to this locker room.

Even with the additions of Starling Marte and Mark Canha, there should be plenty of playing time to go around. Pham could play a role similar to that of Kevin Pillar last season, who started out as part of the ben mob but ended the year with 124 games played. 

While Pham may receive the opportunity for more guaranteed playing time elsewhere, he’d be a really intriguing addition for the Mets. With his bounce-back potential, I could definitely get behind Pham donning the orange and blue next season.

MMO Free Agent Profile: Tommy Pham, OF

The post MMO Free Agent Profile: Tommy Pham, OF first appeared on Metsmerized Online.

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