Early Breakdown of the Mets 2022 Draft Outlook

It sure feels like the dominoes are falling perfectly for the Mets as they look ahead to the 2022 amateur draft cycle.

Armed with a multitude of early round picks, Mets vice president of amateur scouting Tommy Tanous and director of amateur scouting Marc Tramuta must be having difficulty containing their excitement as their department has been working all year on making the 2022 draft class one to remember for the organization.

The Mets currently own the 11th overall pick as compensation for failing to sign last year’s first round selection, Kumar Rocker, as well as their own standard first round selection at 14th overall. In addition to holding all of their subsequent picks, the Mets will also likely pick twice in the compensation round that is situated between the second and third rounds of the draft.

They will be awarded these picks (pending a new collective bargaining agreement that is unlikely to make changes for the 2022 draft cycle) because they extended qualifying offers to both Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto. Syndergaard signed with the Los Angeles Angles, and Conforto is projected to sign elsewhere after the lockout ends.

Add it all up, and the Mets are slated to pick six times within the first roughly 100 selections, a huge boon for a farm system whose depth has been depleted in recent years by some graduations and a multitude of win-now trades. The additional picks also arrive with additional associated bonus pool slot money. The Mets have manipulated their bonus pool in various ways in the past, sometimes going overslot on premium high-end talent (Matt Allan, J.T. Ginn, Kumar Rocker and Mark Vientos) and getting creative in later rounds to come up with the needed savings, while still adding quality depth (Jake Mangum, Eric Orze etc.). The larger the bonus pool; the more opportunity to create value.

It’s great to be able to get that value in any draft year, but what feels so fortuitous about the way this is playing out is the excitement throughout the industry for the level of amateur talent that is available among the 2022 draft eligibles. Let’s break it down by category and look at some of the early names that are creating buzz in scouting circles.

College Bats

Armed with the early picks and pool allotment at their disposal, there really isn’t any level of player this early in the discussion that couldn’t potentially be a target at 11th overall when the Mets pick first. The two college position players that seem to be in a class above the cut are Cal Poly’s shortstop, Brooks Lee and James Madison’s outfielder Chase DeLauter.

Lee and DeLauter were both the talk of the 2021 Cape Cod wood bat league, each exciting scouts with their hit and power tools.

Lee combines an almost uncanny ability to find the barrel with strong exit velocities that should buoy a solid power profile. The sure-handed, switch-hitting shortstop projects to stay on the left side of the infield.

Brooks Lee (2022) @calpolystangs @YD_RedSox returned to the Cape from @USABaseballCNT earlier this week. A switch-hitting infielder w/power, here’s a look at open face swings from each side. #PGCape pic.twitter.com/lKQziOYPO7

— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) July 25, 2021

DeLauter boasts size, strength, and a strong hit tool from the left side, with a solid approach that allowed him to get to his plus power against top competition with a wood bat. He also runs well enough and has a strong arm to project as either plus defensively in right field, or possibly even in center field long-term, as he continues to fill out with age.

Chase DeLauter @JMUBaseball @FirebirdsCCBL continues to impress on the Cape, here he takes a ball to the wall in right field Wednesday for a Triple, followed by a single and a near 400 foot fly out. Plus bat speed from the left, feel to hit, plus power, and OF skills #PGCape pic.twitter.com/KfKi0rujcb

— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) July 24, 2021

There are other college bats that could see their names called on day 1 of the draft.

Vanderbilt’s Carter Young boasts a high ceiling, playing a rangy shortstop and showing a lofty left-handed swing that produces plus exit velocities. Swing and miss will be his area to improve.

Texas Tech slugger Jace Jung and Campbell University infielder Zach Neto both bore astounding stat lines last spring and could bring above average hit tools and power profiles to a position on the dirt long-term.

The college outfield class is loaded with big power potential. Stanford’s Brock Jones will likely stay in center field with his plus speed and his power potential is on par with any in the draft, though some swing stiffness and swing and miss threatens to dilute his massive ceiling.

Who else but Brock Jones? Absolute stud for @StanfordBSB #CWSpic.twitter.com/rDELMPFklT

— College Baseball Nation (@CollegeBallNat) June 24, 2021

The next exit velocity darling of the college outfield class would be Gavin Cross out of Virginia Tech, who showed a max exit velocity of 114 mph last spring, putting him in elite collegiate power territory. Like Cross, another corner outfield fit who mashed in the spring but struggled to make a lot of contact on the Cape last summer is California’s Dylan Beavers. He will also look to show enough contact skills to get his name solidly in the first half of the first round.

LSU’s Jacob Berry might be limited to first base, but his bat could be 6/6 grades (hit/power) at the next level. He will try to prove evaluators this spring that he can handle the hot corner of the infield.

Arkansas outfielder Cayden Wallace can also get his power bat into the first round mix if he can show an improved plate approach and/or demonstrate defensive viability at the hot corner.

The talk of the top college bats in this class are the catchers. Arizona’s Daniel Susac has a hit/power combo to be an everyday catcher and moves impressively behind the dish for his size.

Mississippi State’s Logan Tanner brings a huge throwing arm and big right-handed pop to the party, catching plenty of barrels and attention last season.

Ole Miss catcher Hayden Dunhurst has a double-plus cannon arm and some raw power that hasn’t shown up in games just yet.

Georgia Tech’s Kevin Parada is another catcher with everyday hit and power tools that could profile elsewhere on the diamond, but he will look to improve his receiving and convince teams that he can stick behind the plate.

High School Bats

While the college bats are clearly one of the strengths of the upcoming draft class, high school position players are not far behind, especially at the very top tier. Elijah Green out of IMG Academy in Florida, and two Georgians, Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson, offer all-star upside and tools galore.

Green was the earliest of the trio to pop, showing off his immense 70 grade power for a couple of years now. Green also boasts double-plus speed and a plus arm that gives him upside in center field as well. The huge question Green will look to answer this spring is how much swing and miss projects to be an element of his game down the line, and whether it will hold back his uncanny collection of tools.

Elijah Green (FL) hit this ball off the catwalk at Tropicana Field. Absolutely elite tools! #PGNational pic.twitter.com/ujDqIXGo7E

— PG Showcases (@PGShowcases) July 16, 2021

Druw Jones, son of Braves’ great Andruw Jones, will bring an ultra-projectable frame, speed, and athleticism to center field as well. His raw power projection is significant, but there is some question about how much he will access in games with his current swing and approach.

Termarr Johnson is another elite bat, this time projecting to stay up the middle of the infield. The reviews on the 17-year old’s hit tool are mesmerizing, and there is plus power as well.

While those three names remain unlikely to fall to the Mets first picks, there are some other very enticing prep position players who could find themselves in the 11th to 14th pick range. Mikey Romero and Cole Young out of the southern California and Pennsylvania prep ranks respectively, have exciting hit tools and projectable frames to go with infield actions that project them to stay at shortstop.

Jackson Holliday, son of former MLB outfielder Matt Holliday, also has a chance to stick at shortstop, showcasing athleticism in the field and at the dish that has him being mentioned as a first round candidate.

Another infielder with great blood-lines is Cam Collier, son of Lou Collier. His easy plus hit tool, age (only 17 this summer), and ability to play a solid third base has his name on the first round map already. If he can show some game power this spring playing against much older players at Chipola Junior College, his name will shoot further up lists.

Cam Collier (GA) hits this ball over the RF wall. Typically stays to his professional round and uses the hit tool first. Very good bat to ball skills. #PgNational pic.twitter.com/loE5H5lrrU

— PG Showcases (@PGShowcases) July 16, 2021

High School Pitchers

While recent history continues to show that the Mets amateur team does not typically select prep pitchers in the first round, it is surely a demographic they have gone to early in the draft with premium picks, last year selecting prep righty Calvin Ziegler in the second round (46th overall). The prep pitching talent pool this year is deep, and it is likely that the Mets again take a dip in the high risk/reward terrain.

Dylan Lesko, Andrew Dutkanych, Owen Murphy, Brock Porter, Walter Ford and Ian Ritchie Jr. are some right-handers that are in the top 50 pick mix. Lesko combines plus velocity, smooth mound operation and command projection, and good feel to spin. Dutkanych, Porter and Murphy are mid-west products with plus velocity.

Dutkanych and Murphy have high-spin fastballs that can garner swing and miss, while Murphy can spin a huge slider over 3000 rpms. Porter owns a plus changeup with parachute action and some nascent feel to spin. Ford is immensely projectable, young for the class, and into the mid 90s. Ritchie Jr. is also mid 90s with his four-seamer, and has good feel for a slider and changeup.

There are also a few left-handed starting pitchers in the prep ranks that have put themselves above the rest in the early going, and the upside is immense for each. IMG Academy’s Jackson Ferris brings a mid-90’s fastball and high-spin curve to the party already with more changeup refinement and physical projection still to come. Noah Schultz is a long, lanky 6’9″ lefty from Illinois with a funky low-slot delivery, tailing fastball already into the low 90s, a very high-spin slider, and physical projection galore.

Tristan Smith from South Carolina also works with a deceptive delivery from the left side, a low to mid 90s fastball that eats with tough angle, and a high-spin breaking ball that offers future plus projection.

As with almost all high school pitchers, each of these talented arms will determine much of their future outlook by showing scouts that they can command their loud stuff this coming spring.

College Pitchers

If there is one demographic of the 2022 class that doesn’t currently boast the loudest, it is the current group of college pitchers. But there is feeling that some of that may change this spring if some of the talented arms in this group can show either sustained health, ability to handle a starter’s workload, or a sustained uptick in velocity.

In the first group, you have supremely talented arms that will have varying amounts of opportunity to prove their health, a perhaps sensitive issue to a Mets team that ran into issues with Rocker’s medical review last summer.

Peyton Pallette is a right-hander from Arkansas who missed much of last spring and summer with shoulder fatigue, but he looks to be ready to show he is the top collegiate arm in the class this spring. Pallette draws comparisons to Walker Buehler in his body type and pitching motion, and he owns a mid 90’s fastball and a breaking ball with elite spin.

Connecticut’s Reggie Crawford and Alabama’s Connor Prielipp are two draft eligible left-handers coming off of reconstructive elbow surgery and will have much of their spring and summer delayed. They may or may not be able to pitch competitively before the draft, but that won’t necessarily stop teams from using a high pick on Crawford, who sits in the upper 90’s with his heater and can spin a tight, lateral slider. The same goes for Prielipp, who also owns a plus slider and has been into the upper 90’s in his brief collegiate work. These two names could fall to the second round the way LSU’s Jaden Hill did last summer.

Mississippi State closer Landon Sims will look to take his flat approach, vertically-oriented fastball and plus slider to the rotation. Already showing plus command and mound presence, if Sims can show a third pitch and ability to turn over a lineup, he could move into top half of the first round discussion.

Tough to do better than Landon Sims today.

He entered with bases loaded, no outs.

Three straight strikeouts.

And it only got better. He finished with 10 K’s in 4 innings ????

He ranks among the top 2022 college draft prospects:https://t.co/kAx8r5pUdzpic.twitter.com/ndPGvqnEV4

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) February 20, 2021

There are a handful of left-handers that have performed well with top 2 round stuff: Florida State has two changeup artist Parker Messick and high-spin breaking ball dishing, Bryce Hubbart.

East Carolina lefty Carson Wisenhunt may have an even better changeup than Messick and Miami’s Carson Palmquist brings a funky low-slot delivery with extreme horizontal approach and feel for a sweeping slider. The names in this group can solidify and improve their draft stock by showing scouts their ability to sustain mid 90’s velocity and continue to command their pitches.

With still a whole season of competitive baseball games to play for all of these names, draft boards are merely loose frameworks at this point, but with this draft lining up to be so impactful for the Mets, the time is now for Mets fans to start looking at who to keep their eyes peeled.

The post Early Breakdown of the Mets 2022 Draft Outlook first appeared on Metsmerized Online.