Game 128, Royals at Mariners

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Brad Keller, 7:10pm

A wonderful benefit of the M’s odd playoff push is that each successive series gains in importance. Imagine seeing this series on the schedule before the year began; you would’ve yawned – two out-of-it teams play out the string, hopefully with some of their big prospects getting their first taste of the big leagues. The Royals have done their part, and are…out of it and playing out the string. Their top position-player prospects are in AAA, but some of their young pitchers have debuted already. But the Mariners shrugged off the emotional trade of their beloved closer and continue to win series after increasingly-important series. This set now isn’t a late-summer snooze, it’s the M’s best chance to gain ground on the A’s and Yankees, who are now playing each other.

The M’s playoff odds remain poor, but they’ve finally surpassed the Angels’, whose latest swoon has pushed their odds to 0. The Angels are in the process of losing a series to the abysmal Orioles. It was LA that broke the Orioles long losing streak, and it is LA that’s currently losing to Baltimore 13-1. The Blue Jays are still hanging around, but are in 4th place in their division and 2.5 games behind the M’s.

The Royals come to Seattle with one of the weaker line-ups in the AL. Kansas City has the lowest walk rate of any team in baseball, and the 4th worst isolated slugging. Dayton Moore has a type of baseball he likes, and doesn’t seem to mind how well it works. He won a world series doing it his way, so I can’t completely make fun of it, but at least that team had otherworldly defense, especially in the outfield. Now, the Royals can’t hit for power, can’t draw any walks, *and* can’t catch very well. It’s a rough combination. Their pitching has been decent, though they’ve been the primary victims of the Royals’ poor defense. They do have three solid players up the middle with Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield, but things drop off after that. They’ve given at least 100 PAs to players who’ve accumulated negative WAR, and projected middle-of-the-order guys Hunter Dozier and Jorge Soler have completely imploded.

The pitching was supposed to be a strength, especially after they added Mike Minor. They’re not out and out bad, but they’ve disappointed. One of the under the radar/breakout starters last year was Brad Keller, a guy with no real out pitch and a low K rate. He pitched well in his rookie year in 2018 and was even better last season, but there was a lot written about him before this year due to the seam shifted wake, and how his pitches seem to move differently than they would if the Magnus Force/spin were the only thing acting on them. The whole seam shifted wake discussion can be hard to understand, so giving the concept a face and helping to explain what could be seen as anomalously good results was important. It’s not that he throws 98 mph, or has otherworldly rise on his fastball. It’s not that he throws a deadly slider with tons of break. It’s just that the ball ends up 5 inches from where batters – and even Statcast – thought they would. Great story!

And then he started pitching in 2021. Whatever’s going on with his spin, it is…not confusing to batters anymore. By MLB’s expected stats, based on how hard and at what angle batters have put balls in play against Keller, his expected ERA thus far is 6.31. His actual ERA is “only” 5.43, and while his FIP is lower, FIP doesn’t see that Keller’s barrel rate is one of the highest in the league.

Keller throws a four-seamer and sinker at 94, a good slider with lots of vertical drop, and a rare change-up that’s very firm, at 89-90. The slider’s the best of the bunch, and it’s now the pitch he’s using the most, at over 30%. Because of its slurvy, curve-like movement, it’s not a pitch he needs to worry about throwing to lefties. If anything, he’s been *more* successful against lefties. Righties are not striking out against him, and that’s helping push his walk rate up. He was never a real control pitcher, but his BB% has crested 10% this year, which is part of the reason he’s struggled.

The M’s need to take care of business against the Royals. They did it against Texas, who is admittedly a far worse team, but they need to keep this momentum. Given their ultra-low batting average, the M’s always feel like they’re an ill-timed slump away from falling out of contention. But by the same token, they’re a well-timed run away from surpassing the A’s and the flailing Red Sox, too. Everything continues to come up roses for the club, and so we’ll just hope that keeps happening. This club would look very different with either Kelenic or Raleigh hitting like major leaguers, and maybe things can click for them back at home against sub-par opposition.

The same can be said for Yusei Kikuchi. The M’s are a more dangerous team when he’s playing up to his potential, and their future prospects look weaker when Kikuchi has games like he did in Houston. But he’s back at home and he’s facing the anti-Astros in the “swing softly at everything” Royals.

1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Bauers, DH
SP: Kikuchi

One of the M’s biggest breakout prospects of 2021, Matt Brash, starts for Arkansas tonight. Brash overwhelmed the High-A West, but has been even better in AA, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 6 starts with 48 Ks in 33 IP. Emerson Hancock got the win for Arkansas last night, a 4-3 victory over Corpus Christi. Hancock remains the bigger prospect name, but has missed far fewer bats thus far.

The best team in the M’s system is probably Everett, who lead the High-A West by a game, and who’ve amassed a +164 run differential. It’s been nice to see them stay hot despite losing Julio Rodriguez to the Olympics and then to Arkansas. But they keep on winning, as they did last night by a score of 8-1 over Spokane. OFs Cade Marlowe and Kennie Taylor are helping pace the offense.

Tacoma was off yesterday, and kick off a series against Salt Lake tonight at Cheney.