Game 108, Mariners at Rays

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Luis Patiño, 4:10pm

The M’s beat the Rays for the 5th time in 5 games yesterday, another odd statistic in a season made up wholly of oddities. While they’re a flawed team, and I get why projection systems aren’t high on their playoff chances, the M’s have actually played pretty well against the teams they’re competing with for the wildcard. They’re 5-0 against the Rays, and 6-4 against Oakland. It’s the Tigers that’ve given them fits.

We know, or think we know, why the M’s are on the outskirts of a playoff race. They may not have great starting pitching, and their offense has scuffled, but they had a lockdown bullpen and their bats are unbelievably clutch. Not, perhaps, the *best* set of ingredients for a great team, but as I’ve said all year, it’s an entertaining set of ingredients. This team has been fun to watch because, outside of two painful walkoffs last week, they don’t tend to give away games late, and their offense is at its best (which, I mean, low bar) when it counts. That doesn’t make the team great, but it lets them hang around, even against great teams.

So, why are the Rays in this position? What are the good at, and what’s gone right for them? Remember, the offseason began with the Rays trading away Blake Snell to San Diego and replacing him with Rich Hill. Tyler Glasnow, the team’s best pitcher, is on the shelf, and the Rays traded Hill at the deadline. Randy Arozarena’s star turn in last year’s playoffs has been followed up with a solid, unspectacular season. Manny Margot’s turned back into Manny Margot, not the power hitter who helped get the Rays to the AL Pennant. Especially with Glasnow hurt, Nick Anderson not pitching an inning thus far, Brendan McKay out, and Shane Baz not debuting yet, I expected the Rays pitching staff to be OK/good, but nothing all that special. Instead, they’re right where they always are, near the top in fWAR and bWAR – they’re good by fielding-independent stats and by good old ERA.

They’re line-up is the same: Austin Meadows, Arozarena, Brandon Lowe – they’re all putting up good seasons, but none of them is a star; none of them will get MVP votes. One of their most valuable players is Mike Zunino, putting up perhaps his best year after years of (offensive) struggles in Florida, and Ji-Man Choi is taking the Jake Fraley route to value, drawing loads of walks to make up for a so-so average and power production. It all seems “pretty good” more than “dominant team” but that’s what the Rays have been – they’ve got the #5 staff and the #6 offense by Fangraphs.

What’s more, the offensive strategy looks pretty familiar for M’s fans. The Rays have struck out more than any team in baseball, just ahead of your Seattle Mariners. But they’ve walked far more than Seattle, and hit for a bit more power. Is that just the home parks? Well, Tampa’s rates as even more of a pitcher’s park than Seattle’s by BBREF’s park factors, and FG agrees it’s harder to hit home runs there. Both teams will trade strikeouts for OBP and power, and the Rays have simply been much better at getting them. Mike Zunino and Cal Raleigh really may be similar players, but at least in 2021, Zunino’s been better at it.

Today, the M’s face the primary return for Blake Snell, Luis Patiño, once the pride of the San Diego system. The 21-year old righty throws a hard, rising fastball at 96 and his best pitch is a two-plane slider at 86-87. He’s also got a firm change up and slider, and is messing with a sinker that shows commendably distinct break from his four-seam. The slider’s tough to hit, and righties see a steady dose of them. It’s clearly been his best pitch, but he’s still got to get to it. That’s been harder than you’d think given his fastball. It *looks* good, but batters don’t seem to mind it all that much. They’ve put it in play, and done some damage against it…and MLB’s expected stats show that Patiño is lucky they’ve *only* put up a .331 wOBA against it.

1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Bauers, 1B
SP: Kikuchi