Mets’ Baserunning Could Improve With Offseason Acquisitions

Looking over the last couple years, it is hard to recall a New York Mets team that ran the bases well. There have been a few great baserunners that have come along over the years, but the collective has often been underwhelming when it comes to adding value on the basepaths.

Looking at 2019 and 2020 in particular, the lack of quality baserunners–measured by BsR, Fangraphs’ well-regarded baserunning stat–on the Mets’ roster has been pretty astonishing, with only five players (minimum 100 plate appearances) notching a total positive baserunning metric over that span. Those are players are:

• Andres Gimenez (3.1 BsR)
• Brandon Nimmo (1.9)
• Michael Conforto (1.1)
• Amed Rosario (0.8)
• Adeiny Hechavarria (0.4)

Two of those players were traded and another was only on the team for part of 2019.

Winning and a high BsR aren’t perfect positive correlation, but if you look at the top and bottom of the BsR rankings over the last five years, you’ll see successful teams like the Dodgers (6th in total BsR from 2016-2020 with 26.0), Nationals (36.4 BsR), Yankees (41.5), Cleveland (43.7), Braves (25.5), and Rays (24.5) all in the top-eight in that span.

Teams in the bottom-eight include: the Blue Jays (-61.9 BsR), Tigers (-39.4), Reds (-34.2), Marlins (-31.9), and, of course, the Mets, sitting at -45.4 BsR. Successful teams generally run the bases well, and unsuccessful teams, like the Mets the last five seasons, typically don’t.

There has been chatter among coaches in the first week-and-a-half of spring training about wanting to create value through base running, like when Chili Davis noted that better base running could lead to more runs. Getting on base wasn’t an issue for the Mets offense last year. Adding value once on the bases was.

So this offseason, what did the Mets do to theoretically improve on the basepaths?

Outside of hiring a new baserunning coach, Tony Tarasco, who will also be the first base and outfield coach, they actually got a group of players with history of speed and quality base running.

Jonathan Villar (first, 11.1 BsR), Mallex Smith (seventh, 9.1) and Kevin Pillar (15th, 7.8) were all top-15 in the league in BsR over the last two seasons.

While these guys probably won’t combine for 700 plate appearances this year, by plugging in your depth and defensive pieces on the basepaths for guys like Dominic Smith (-1.0 BsR) or J.D. Davis (-5.5) the Mets could have a better chance to score in late innings purely by having better baserunners. And not just a faster, but better. (Villar, Pillar, and Davis all had similar sprint speeds around a league-average 27 feet/second last season.)

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections also see prospect Khalil Lee as a positive base runner in 2021, as well, though he will probably spend most–if not all–of the year at the minor league level. Albert Almora Jr., Brandon Drury, and Drew Ferguson–all potential upper minors depth–are league-average base runners or better, too.

Oddly enough, at position the Mets have had the best base running from the last two seasons–shortstop–they’ll see the biggest drop off in BsR. Where Rosario and Gimenez combined for 3.9 BsR in 2019 and 2020, newly acquired Francisco Lindor posted a -4.5 BsR–the worst in the league at the position over the same time span.

However, you’d concede Lindor’s iffy base running skills for his bat and defense, which are both far superior to what the Mets have had at shortstop the last two years.

On the flip side, the Mets had Wilson Ramos rounding the bases hundreds of times for them from the catcher position the last two years. You wouldn’t be too shocked to find Ramos had a -8.0 BsR, the worst of any catcher with at least 100 plate appearances over that span. His replacement, James McCann, had a positive 1.0 BsR over the last two seasons, the fifth-best mark of any catcher.

While you may be able to pinpoint a minus in Rosario/Gimenez-to-Lindor on the base paths, the pluses on the majority of the roster from Pillar, McCann, Villar, and more should help the Mets create positive value and runs through baserunning this season–a much needed departure from the past.

The post Mets’ Baserunning Could Improve With Offseason Acquisitions first appeared on Metsmerized Online.