MMO Free Agent Profile: Garrett Richards, RHP
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Age: 32 (5/27/1988)
Traditional Stats: 2-2, 10 games started, 51.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 46 K,
Advanced Stats: 0.7 fWAR, 1 bWAR, 4.28 FIP, 4.46 xFIP-, 8.06 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9
Rundown
Looking for a pitcher who might be an adjustment or two away from becoming the next Charlie Morton? Look no further than Garrett Richards. Richards has long been known for his fastball and it’s velocity. His best year came in 2014, when he was an ace with the Angels. Unfortunately, it was shortened due to a torn patellar tendon and he has not replicated the same success. Richards has been a solid MLB pitcher, when healthy. From 2016-2019, his innings totals are as follows: 34.2, 27.2, 76.1, and 8.2. He did pitch a full season, albeit shortened, in 2020.
I still think he’s a target worth exploring because as I mentioned above, he can very easily become the next Charlie Morton. Richards has had a better track record than Morton did before his breakout but he would be a late bloomer similar to how Morton was.
When you compare their velocity, it is something that Richards already has in his arsenal which Morton did not. Richards has always averaged 95 MPH or more on his fastball (he averaged 94.8 MPH in 2013 but let’s round up for the kind man).
His fastball has speed but it’s not like Noah Syndergaard‘s fastball in 2016. It is not a pitch that leads to strikeouts. Richards used to rely on this pitch more than 60% of the time with the Angels as he’s started to use that fastball less, the more guys he is starting to strikeout.
The obvious reason is that his pitching style is far less predictable. The other answer is that his slider is really good. Richard’s slider has the 21st highest spin rate in all of baseball and the fifth highest among starting pitchers. Here’s a video of one of his 3,000+ rpm sliders: Garrett Richard’s Slider. The pitch moved 5.9 inches vertically in 2020, one of the highest figures in the league. The more he realizes how much of a weapon this is, the better he can be.
The other reason I believe Richards can breakout is because of his active spin or lack thereof. Active spin is the spin that actually contributes to movement. So if a player has a high spin rate and actually puts that to use, he will generate a lot more movement. If a player has a high spin rate and does not have a high active spin, that would seem to indicate that he is not getting the full mileage out of his spin rate. The latter describes Garret quite well. Richards gets a lot of vertical movement on his slider but gets virtually no horizontal movement on a pitch that is typically considered a horizontally moving pitch.
For example, two pitchers who have the highest active spin on their sliders are Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. Both of these guys have similar vertical movement on their sliders but both rank in the top-5 in terms of horizontal movement. Gray gets 10 inches of horizontal movement while Bauer gets 8.8. Definitely not a coincidence that one of the most analytical pitching departments in baseball is able to generate the most of their pitchers. Cincinnati has 5 pitchers in the top-5o of horizontal movement, so that’s where I would recommend looking incase the Mets are looking to upgrade their pitching department.
All told, Richards only has a 24.6% active spin percentage on his slider. Gray and Bauer are at 81.2% and 79.3%. Meanwhile, Richards has the second lowest active spin on his fastball in all of baseball. He gets high spin rates but he has just not been using that to his advantage. With his natural stuff, even a little bump in active spin will make him a breakout candidate. It’s probably a lot easier said than done but some team (hopefully the Mets) will get their hands on him and find a way to do what Cincinnati is doing to their pitchers.
Contract
Craig Edwards of FanGraphs has Richards getting a one-year deal worth $7 million. MLB Trade Rumors believes that he is in line for $16 million over two-years. I think he gets a one-year deal with an player option for the second. Maybe all told the value will come close to $16 million plus incentives.
Recommendation
Well I think I laid my case out above as to why I believe he should be a Met. He’s got the potential to be a breakout starter and the Mets still need to fill out two or three spots in their rotation. Trevor Bauer is the hot commodity but they’ll still need one more starter even if they signed Bauer.
I am all for the Mets signing both Bauer and Morton but the more likely scenario is that they’ll go after one of those guys and go after George Springer and proceed to fill the rest of the roster out. Richards just seems to make a lot of sense as someone who slots in the backend of the rotation with the potential to provide more. I certainly like his potential a lot more than Rick Porcello.
