Steven Matz Needs to Remain in the Bullpen Next Season

After making his impressive major league debut in 2015, where he produced a 2.27 ERA over six starts, Steven Matz has endured a rollercoaster tenure over the last five seasons and his time as a starting pitcher could be over heading into the 2021 campaign.

While this past season proved to be challenging at times across the entire MLB, it was particularly difficult for Matz, as he bounced back-and-forth between the New York Mets’ starting rotation and their bullpen.

Though his production spanned over just a small sample size due to the shortened 60-game season, the 2020 campaign still served as the worst statistical performance of his career, which played a major factor in his club failing to qualify for the playoffs.

Over his 30 2/3 innings pitches, the 29-year old lost five of his six starts, producing a miserable 9.68 ERA, 6.57 xERA, 7.76 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 229 ERA-, 177 FIP-, 93 xFIP-, 1.70 WHIP, .318 OPP AVG, .341 BABIP, 25.4% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate, 28.4% LD rate, 32.6% GB rate, 38.9% FB rate, 37.8% HR/FB rate, 13.5% barrel rate, 49.0% hard-hit rate, along with a career-worst -0.7 fWAR rating.

Aside from increasing his strikeout rate (up 3.3% from 2019) and lowering his walk rate (0.5% decrease), Matz’s sixth season in Queens was a complete disaster and he probably should’ve been removed from the rotation even earlier in the season. As a result of his concerning performance, the left-hander finished at the bottom of the leaderboard in several different categories, as he was considered one of the league’s most underperforming pitchers.

Among all hurlers who compiled at least 30.0 innings pitched, the Stony Brook native finished with the highest HR/FB rate, tied for the highest OPP AVG, the second-highest ERA, ERA-, and FIP-.

He also tied for the second-most home runs allowed (14), the third-highest FIP and hard-hit rate, the fourth-highest barrel rate, the fifth-highest LD rate and average exit velocity (91.5 mph), the seventh-highest WHIP, the 14th-highest BABIP, along with the second-lowest fWAR rating, according to FanGraphs.com.

Slated to enter the final year of his current contract, the 6-foot-2 hurler will also be crossing over the 30-year old threshold next season and will need to find a way to bounce back before he becomes eligible for free agency.

If the former second-round pick fails to accomplish that feat, and that’s certainly a possibility, then his chances of returning to the Mets in 2022 will likely decrease significantly and he could struggle to locate his next deal.

So what’s the best way Matz can turn his career around next season? And how might he be utilized during his seventh season in blue pinstripes?

Well, it seems like the next stage of his career will occur in the bullpen, as there’s a very small chance he returns to the starting rotation when spring training opens in 2021.

Considering the Mets’ rotation is expected to feature pitchers Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, and David Peterson next season, the Ward Melville HS standout will likely continue his transition into a full-time reliever and could serve as a multi-inning hurler during low-leverage situations.

That being said, Matz could potentially emerge into a more meaningful role later in the season if he’s able to find success on the mound during the first-half of the campaign.

Even though three of the four hits he allowed as a reliever in 2020 went over the fence, including two during his final outing of the season, Matz did prove to be a reliable relief pitcher at times. Especially against left-handed hitters.

Despite spending just a brief period in the bullpen, the former top prospect’s success against lefties could serve as a building block for what he’s able to accomplish in 2021.

During his short time as a reliever, No. 32 faced 10 different left-handed batters and was nearly perfect against each of them, as he didn’t allow a single hit, creating five strikeouts, just one walk, 0.86 FIP, 1.50 xFIP, 75.0% GB rate, and a 25.0% FB rate over that span.

Based on his encouraging results against lefties, utilizing Matz as a lefty specialist appears to be the best way to maximize his value moving forward, although, the unpopular three-batter minimum rule could complicate that game plan.

Adding to this, his overall performance during the final season of his current contract will be largely determined by his mid-90s sinker, as he struggled to command his primary weapon effectively in 2020.

Over his nine appearances this past season, the veteran arm utilized his sinking fastball 53.7% of the time, generating a .322 AVG (18th-highest among all pitchers with at least 50 plate appearances), .305 xAVG (18th-highest), .678 SLG (second-highest), .558 xSLG (seventh-highest), .440 wOBA (fourth-highest), .385 xwOBA (ninth-highest), 47.8% hard-hit rate (18th-highest), 10.9% barrel rate (3.3% increase from 2019), 39.1% LD rate (11.1% increase), 28.3% GB rate (15.8% decrease), 11.9% walk rate (4.5% increase), 19.4% strikeout rate (4.3% decrease), along with a 10 run value (second-worst) against it, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Since his sinker’s in zone rate increased by 4.7% (54.7%) this past season, it’d probably be wise for Matz to focus on locating his favorite pitch outside the strike zone a little more frequently in 2021. This will likely reduce the amount of hard contact it allows.

In addition, this adjustment should also help him create plenty more swings and misses next season, particularly during two-strike counts.

While there is an argument to be made for Matz being non-tendered this offseason, the lefty probably won’t earn a raise from his 2020 salary of $5 million if he remains on this team. But even if he does receive a slight raise, there’s a strong chance he could flourish as a full-time reliever next season, which would make up for the price tag.

With the Mets aiming for a deep postseason run in 2021, it’ll be crucial to make a handful of upgrades to their pitching staff over the next few months and they’ll need improved performances from the hurlers inside their organization as well.

If successful, this team will have a solid chance to participate in meaningful baseball games next fall for the first time since 2016 and will hopefully be able to capture their third World Series championship in franchise history.