Indians 2020 Draft Prospect Thoughts

My thoughts on the players the Indians selected this week in the 2020 amateur draft, along with three high level thoughts. #1 I was concerned the Indians would use the draft as a way to save money this year b/c of the shutdown, but I do not believe they did. It would have been easy for Dolan to underspend on the draft with 99.99% of fans not noticing but they did not go cheap, even w/ an underslot 1st round pick. #2 Logan Allen (2nd) and Mason Hickman’s (5th) clear weakness is velocity but the Indians have demonstrated with some recent successes they can improve this weakness (Civale, Bieber, Plesac). In isolation, I had concerns about Logan Allen’s upside but with the Indians I am more confident in his future. #3 It appears at the surface the Indians value character and desire to improve with some of these guys, which I support 100%.

1st Round: Carson Tucker (SS, Arizona HS): What stands out most to me is his bat speed with a fluid, agile upper body that supports extension and future power potential. At 24-25 years old, I can envision him generating nasty swings, particularly for a middle infielder. He is 6’1"-6’2", 180 and he will get meaningfully stronger though his body frame is narrow. An average runner but he has plus agility that suggests he can play an infield skill position but there’s not much tape of him defensively. His swing is long and he takes a stride, so I expect some growing pains as he shortens his swing. This will take away some bat speed and present-day power but he is physically projectable and given his agility I think the added muscle won’t hinder his athletic actions much. He’s potentially a 25 HR guy at SS but there’s a longer road to get there. If his work ethic is as good as it is made out to be, it’s a big plus.

1st Supplemental Round: Tanner Burns (RHP, Auburn): 2019 and 2020: 102 IP, 80 H, 30 BB, 133 K. 6’0", stalky build at 210 lbs which is not typical of a pitcher. He is consistently 92-95 mph with movement and his breaking ball is a "55" on the 20-80 scale. Also has an effective CH. Burns is very polished, generates good velocity with an easy delivery and keeps his head still through release, supporting his plus command. He has demonstrated the stuff, command and execution of a MLB pitcher at various times in his career so he is not far off. I have seen many of his starts for Auburn. I grew concerned watching him in the playoffs in 2019 b/c his stuff was down and he wasn’t throwing his breaking ball well. He did not pitch that summer. The good news is I think he looked good this spring and the Indians say their medicals on him were good. I have seen numerous starts of his where he starts off looking like a MLB pitcher but then he loses effectiveness after 3-4 innings. He’s got the delivery of a SP but durability is a question mark. He is too good to be just a 1 inning guy, however. Qualitatively, he’s one of my favorite pitchers in college baseball from a fan of the game perspective. I think he is a likable person that would be a good teammate and fits the Indians culture. I believe in him. I support the ‘bullpenning’ concept and I think Burns is best suited to be very good in a 2-5 IP per outing role, and I said the same thing about with Daniel Espino.

2nd Round: Logan Allen (LHP, Florida International): 2019 and 2020: 109 2/3 IP, 88 H, 31 BB, 161 K. 6’0", 195 lbs. My best look at him was at Team USA tryouts last June. He only got 1 or 2 innings, but every single FB he threw was 91 or 92. Most known for his CH, I don’t think he threw one and was only CB (77-78) and SL (82). He gets really nice arm-side tailing action on his FB. Polished, low effort delivery. He’s not traditionally projectable from a physical perspective but neither was Aaron Civale when he was in college, and he went from 89-93 mph in college to pitching at 91-95 mph in 2020 with plus movement. The Indians have demonstrated success with guys like this and if Allen can get to the bump in velocity, he will be a good MLB pitcher but it is questionable how much upside he has without desired pitching physical measurables. Without the added velo, Marco Gonzales (Seattle) is very similar in many respects to Logan Allen and he is a +3.5 WAR pitcher in MLB throwing 88-92. That is from very plus command of all pitches which I’m not sure Allen has yet but Gonzales is a good blueprint for Allen’s success.

3rd Round: Petey Halpin (OF, California HS): I have only seen video clips of him on YouTube, but I am pleasantly surprised. He runs, throws, hits, fields and he has a projectable body frame suggesting he will age well into his early 20s. Good swing with bat speed and I can see a 20 HR hitter in the future if he adds the expected strength. Also he is young for his draft class (May 2002). He should be able to hit well as a pro early on and gradually show more power as he matures. Probably not a future All-Star, but I see a very solid, good MLB regular if he develops. He looks like a great selection in the 3rd round and is arguably better prospect than Tucker.

4th Round: Milan Tolentino (SS, California HS): It looks like he has MLB tools across the board but looks to be deficient in power with his swing despite more of a developed body for someone his age. It is clear he plays the infield well and confidently, potentially a good defender at MLB but I can see some scouts questioning his range given his body type. I can’t get much of a read on him from the internet clips so I will keep it short to avoid BS’ing you all.

5th Round: Mason Hickman (RHP, Vanderbilt): 2019 and 2020: 115 2/3 IP, 72 H, 31 BB, 155 K. 6’6", 225 lbs. Hickman is bigger but Doug Fister is my best comp, as a guy with plus leverage, plus command but below average velocity. Plus downward leverage and he legitimately already consistently shows MLB quality command of his FB and sometimes his CB/SL. His CB has good shape but can be soft – potentially a good MLB pitch but he just needs to tighten it up. Has a CH too but it needs improvement. In higher profile games, I have seen him 88-90 (T 91) but most often it is mostly 87-89. It is important to note that he pitches at Vanderbilt and their coach does not put up with guys trying to light up the radar gun while sacrificing command (common in the SEC). I was hoping to see higher velo out of Hickman this spring but he did not show that jump. The Indians have done a good job getting velo out of pitchers, but Hickman has had the top notch resources of Vanderbilt to support his development and it has not yet led to the velo bump he needs (at least in games) to be successful in MLB. If in two-three years this guy is throwing 90-93 mph, he will be a good MLB pitcher but that is a meaningful bump from where he is currently. I think Hickman was a very good pick in the 5th round. Also a disclaimer on his stats which look excellent for a SEC pitcher, a lot of his starts in 2019 were as a midweek starter facing non-SEC competition.

This draft was only 5 rounds and MLB teams can sign draft-eligible players that were not selected for a max of $20k. I am hopeful the Indians favorable player development reputation (particularly for pitchers) affords them some good prospects to be added this summer. This is really important for the organization so is something meaningful to follow for some years. DelGua has made a couple posts on this board noting specific names he likes. Identifying these under-the-radar prospects in the draft is a specialty of his. I encourage him to post his work if he sees this and it is not too much work.