Jacob deGrom Continues Leading Mets in This Rotation-Wide Trend
On Saturday against the Kansas City Royals, New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom performed in a way we’ve gotten used to seeing since the start of last season. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner held his opponents to just one run on three hits, two walks, and five strikeouts in seven dominant innings, which even led to him earning a win.
While he’s long shaken off a rough March/April that resulted in an uncharacteristic 4.85 ERA, the right-hander has reached back for yet another level of ridiculousness since the All-Star break. Upon returning from his third career appearance in the midsummer classic, deGrom has posted a 1.00 ERA (second among qualified starters) with a 32.0% strikeout rate in 45 innings. Heck, he’s been so good that he’s even collected four wins against no losses throughout seven starts.
It’s not that deGrom didn’t have a run like this in him — after all, we just saw him do something similar a year ago. What is different, though, is the way in which he’s getting there. Take a look at how his pitch mix has shifted since 2016:
| Year | FB% | SL% | CB% | CH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 59.5% | 18.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| 2017 | 55.4% | 22.7% | 9.5% | 12.4% |
| 2018 | 52.1% | 23.9% | 7.9% | 16.1% |
| 2019 | 50.7% | 30.8% | 3.4% | 15.1% |
There’s a clear decrease in fastball and curveball usage, which in turn has shifted over to his changeup and slider usage (the latter of which is obviously more drastic). DeGrom’s reliance on his slider has become even more pronounced when looking at his usage between the first half and second half of this year. Prior to the All-Star break, he was tossing it at a 27.2% clip, which already was on track to be a new single-season career high. Since returning from the break, that rate has climbed up to 40.1%, which is the third-highest clip in baseball at the moment.
This kind of change isn’t necessarily something unique to deGrom. The Mets’ rotation has been among baseball’s best over the last five weeks when looking at cumulative fWAR and ERA. As a group, their slider usage has gone from 14.7% in the first half to 20.7% thus far in the second half.
DeGrom hasn’t been the only one making this shift in pitch mix. We’ve already mentioned Noah Syndergaard going down this road, but it’s continued while other friends have joined the party.
| Pitcher | 1st Half SL% | 2nd Half SL% |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 27.2% | 40.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | 10.5% | 21.8% |
| Zack Wheeler | 18.4% | 24.4% |
| Steven Matz | 9.7% | 21.5% |
Is there any correlation to this helping out? Well, New York’s rotation remained as one of the league’s best in the first half when it came it controlling the quality of contact from opposing pitchers. That hasn’t changed in the second half, but their collective soft-hit rate (19.4% to 21.0%) and hard-hit rate (35.0% to 30.8%) allowed have both gone in the right direction.
That has to count for something, right?
What also helps support this argument is the increase in value each hurler has seen in their slider from one half to the next. This statistic comes from FanGraphs, and we’ll be looking at the pitch value of each slider on a per-100-pitch basis.
| Pitcher | 1st Half wSL/C | 2nd Half wSL/C |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 0.81 | 1.89 |
| Noah Syndergaard | -2.39 | 4.73 |
| Zack Wheeler | 0.12 | 3.81 |
| Steven Matz | -1.08 | 2.67 |
So it certainly seems like something specific is going on with the Mets’ rotation when it comes to each of them throwing their respective sliders.
What will be fascinating to watch moving forward is how the starting staff responds to the upcoming tough stretch of games. And if we’re looking into the immediate future, the homestand beginning on Tuesday against the Cleveland Indians, followed by the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs is what will be crucial.
Despite the Mets currently being a top-10 offense in the second half based off their team wRC+ of 107, this squad is built around the starting rotation. It’s something that’s been said way too often over the years, but it’s true. The pitching staff needs the offense in order to be successful, but New York will ultimately go only as far as the rotation can carry them (especially when that includes limiting the exposure of the bullpen to opposing hitters).
The collective step forward they’ve taken since the All-Star break has been crucial in the sense that it’s helped get the Mets back in the NL wild-card race in the first place. If they’re going to stay there and potentially move up, they’ll have to keep performing against lineups that are formidable, and in some cases, ready for October to arrive.