Should the Indians Extend Lindor, and the Team's Real Issue

I examined what it would take to extend Lindor earlier in the offseason; needless to say I doubt my ideas ring true. It would take dramatically more for the Cleveland Indians to extend Franke this offseason, or next offseason (even with the calf injury). With the continued lull in the offseason some analysts put their heads together on whether Cleveland should extend Francisco Lindor (from Pluto's typical take, to Meisel's take, and our own Matt's take). Overall, before we continue I fully agree a Lindor extension is unlikely, and unfortunately Lindor will inevitably take his talents elsewhere by 2022 (and I pray the Indians do not trade him before he leaves, barring a 2009-2009 meltdown). However, if I were the front office I would seriously consider an extension, if Lindor would truly entertain one in the near term. For several reasons, first..

Francisco Lindor may be the Best Shortstop in Team History

I say this soberly, and honestly. Lindor's career start exceeds Lou Boudreau's (the reigning best Tribe shortstop), here are their first four seasons (ignoring Boudreau's single game stint in 1938):

Bourdreau:
503 Games, 2,247 PA, .276/.365/.406 (108 OPS+), 124 2B, 24 SB, 24 CS, 15.8 bWAR, 30 rField

Lindor:
574 Games, 2,590 PA, .288/.350/.487 (119 OPS+), 138 2B, 71 SB, 20 CS, 23.9 bWAR, 46 rField

Overall, a clear advantage across the board. Lindor hits better than Boudreau (with a decent OBP disadvantage), fields better than Boudreau, and steals more bases (in a time where the stolen base long lost its sway). Now, Lindor has yet to copy Boudreau's magnum opus season in 1948, when he won the MVP. Then again, he doesn't need to in order to surpass the Hall of Fame shortstop. To be clear: Lou Boudreau ranks 15th all time in JAWS, 6th all time in WAR7; Lou Boudreau was a brilliant shortstop in his time. Francisco Lindor could surpass him. That's talent you simply do not walk away from lightly, and is not easily replaced. Especially when maintaining him will not cost the Indians money in the near term, when the budget is tight.

Fitting Lindor

Hear me out. Assuming the Indians can keep Lindor at rough arbitration prices (which is reasonable), Manny Machado set a $30M annual price for Lindor. The next two seasons are tight financially for the Indians, but by 2021 the money begins to slack. Currently the Tribe committed only $23.35M to players in 2021, with $51M in options; many of those options face likely declines. Roberto Perez ($9M) & Carlos Santana ($17.5M) will likely become free agents in 2021. Assuming Kluber & Hand's options are exercised the Indians committed $51.35M in 2021. The only notable player eligible for arbitration is Michael Clevinger (who will be in his second year of arbitration). Assuming Clevinger signs for a similar amount of money as Trevor Bauer, that would add an additional $13M to the payroll, running total: $64.35M. Keep in mind: this is Lindor's last season of arbitration, so under my proposed deal Lindor's salary would fall somewhere around $25M, breaking the record. This brings our current payroll to about $90M, with room to spare to find roster improvements.

Starting in 2022: Lindor's full $30M kicks in, but the Indians only committed $14M in salaries (only Carlos Carrasco), and only $18M in options, $11M of which is Jose Ramirez. Now, Jake Bauers (assuming he works out), and Shane Bieber will be eligible for arbitration for the first time, and Clevinger enters his final year of arbitration commitments. But again, even with Lindor's $30M commitment, the Tribe still has plenty of room to fit players onto their roster. Heck, we don't even know if Bauers will work out yet. The real question we need to answer is whether we believe a potential Hall of Fame shortstop, averaging over 6 bWAR in full seasons is worth building a team around.

With Lindor on the roster the Tribe would still boast a pretty impressive core of Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, and Shane Bieber. Potential role players already rostered include Jake Bauers, Adam Cimber, Eric Haase and Nick Goody. Potentially a playoff team, but also one without any solid relievers and no outfielders (or first baseman if we place Bauers in left). Thus the Indians still need to find a way to populate their outfield. This budget does not leave a ton of money to sign major free agents (although it does leave some), which brings me to the bigger issue the Indians face.

The Indians Need to Draft Better

The biggest issue facing the Cleveland Indians the past few years is easily poor drafting. When looking at the composition of our current roster this becomes clear: our rotation outside of Shane Bieber were all acquired via trade, our bullpen is a complete mess and reliant on a trade acquisition (Brad Hand) and a free agent (Oliver Perez), and our outfield was so bad we had to scramble on finding somebody who can help. Overall, the Indians inability to develop outfielders and relievers have cost them dearly. The last productive Tribe outfielder out of the draft was Lonnie Chisenhall, and he couldn't stay on the field. Before Lonnie we're talking...who? Manny Ramirez? Brian Giles? The Indians haven't developed a solid outfielder in practically decades. Every other outfielder has come from via trade.

The situation is only marginally better for relievers. The only effective drafted reliever the Tribe's produced recently is Cody Allen. Before Cody, we're probably discussing Vinnie Pestano. The inability to produce our own relievers has, again, forced the Tribe to make trades. We are all familiar with the lengths Cleveland went to acquire impact relievers in recent years.

At some point, the dam bursts, as we're seeing this year. Out of money, and unwilling to part with prospects (or to be fair, perhaps they were not enticing), the Tribe picked up cast offs from everywhere to fill both the bullpen and the outfield. It is a precarious spot for a contender to find itself. The Indians cannot continue to rely on hopes and prayers in two major areas of the team, and the Indians cannot afford to pay a free agent for all of these openings either. Unless the Indians rebuild, and do what they do best: trade veterans for prospects, they will need to draft their way out of it.

Conclusion

In the end the Tribe cannot spend their way out of every problem. At $30M, retaining Lindor will come at a huge price to this organization. On the other hand, it would not completely hinder the team from competing. Even with an additional $30M in spending, the Indians cannot build an outfield and bullpen with $30M. If they fail to draft the players they need they will never compete. The same is true with all the other small market extensions I mentioned in my original article. Take the Reds: does anybody believe the Cincinnati Reds are $25M in free agent spending away from becoming a contender? I don't. Buster Posey's $22M a year certainly sets the Giants back, but their recent struggles have little to do with their inability to reallocate that $22M. A better model for the Indians is probably Freddie Freeman. Freeman is an expensive player for the Braves at over $20M a year, and they're competing because they drafted and traded for a cheap core around him. In short: the extension is not the problem, it's the failure to draft around the extended player which causes the issue.

Should the Indians extend Lindor? Only if you believe the front office is smart enough to find the cheap talent to place around them.