Can the Royals Avoid an Entire Rebuild?
The short answer is yes, but Dayton Moore is on a tighter schedule than in his first decade as General Manager. Rebuilds take a long time, as expressed through the frustrations of the Kansas City fanbase in that 29 year playoff drought.
In the post Hosmer-Cain-Moustakas-HDH era, high expectations are as hard to come by as a hit from Chris Davis. If that reference confuses you, research his 2018 season. The Royals lost 104 games in 2018, and another 90+ loss season this year is an acceptable standard, but KC has the talent to make a run for their money, and perhaps return to the playoffs as soon as 2020. Don’t take my word on it, but they’re just waiting on a healthy, simultaneous breakout years from their young studs and a little more spending power.
The outfield is a clusterfuck. With Alex Gordon flirting with retirement (a sad yet timely decision) in the final year of his contract, a primer in Billy Hamilton with a limited ceiling, a roller coaster ride on Bonifacio, the confusing yet promising case of Jorge Soler, and finally the defensive Gordon-esque mastermind Brett Phillips. Aside from what seems to be a well supplied outfield, is a line of potential candidates who might turn Yost’s head otherwise in Spring Training (don’t even mention Bubba Starling).
The bullpen is atrocious right now, especially compared to what it was three years ago. The can’t get outs, the don’t throw strikes, and the Royals could’ve honestly been close to
.500 if it wasn’t for the likes of Brandon Maurer and Blaine Boyer (Best of luck, Pittsburgh). While it’s no pitching prospects dream to pitch the 8th inning and Omaha is a s dry as the rest of Nebraska, someone is gonna have to step up.
I like what the rotation is shaping up to be. While there’s some apparent problems, there’s plenty of upside. Jakob Junis could be that 2nd or 3rd starter workhorse, and a valuable asset to this team when they make a playoff run. However, he needs to pitch a little more out of the zone. 2018 showed that hitters aren’t afraid to swing at him, proven by those 32 home runs. Dear Ian Kennedy, we’re just waiting out your contract. Jorge Lopez, who came in that package with Brett Phillips from Milwaukee could be the ace we never saw coming. Contrary to his overall numbers, he shined in a few games. Brad Keller, the other ace we never saw coming, throwing his was to a 3.08 ERA in 140 innings in his first year of Major League Baseball.
The most promising part of the team, in my opinion, is the infield. Ryan O’Hearn hit 12 home runs in 44 games. Adalberto Mondesi is being slept on by everyone outside of Kansas City. He seriously has the potential to be a five-tool monster, he just needs to work on taking pitches. Yes Whit, Merrifield is already 30, but aside from our improving farm system of middle infielders, there’s no reason to see him decline in the next few years. I expect him to play a big part in their eventual playoff run. Chris Owings was a solid pickup from Arizona. Hunter Dozier has received way too much heat. He needs games at third to adjust defensively, but I see a lot of offensive upside, just needs a little more time to mature. In every MLB conversation involving catchers, I see something along the lines of "Perez is overrated". To everyone who says that: fuck off. Perez has been the most consistent offensive catcher for the past six years. He’s never going to take walks, I’ve accepted that. I would like to see an increase in batting average, and don’t think that’s too far-fetched considering he was battling minor injuries all season long in 2018. He may never excel at pitch framing, but his defense is, hands down, the best in baseball. Don’t run on Perez (or Gordon), no matter how fast you think you are.
Granted, I may seem overly optimistic and hopeful, but maybe I have very good reasons to be. Here’s some overly optimistic projections for 2019:
Salvador Perez - .265, 28 HR, 79 RBI, 0 SB
Ryan O’Hearn - .253, 25 HR, 63 RBI, 2 SB
Whit Merrifield - .314, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 37 SB
Adalberto Mondesi - .257, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 51 SB
Hunter Dozier - .249, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB
Jorge Soler - .267, 24 HR, 68 RBI
Brett Phillips - .236, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 5 SB
Billy Hamilton - .241, 1 HR, 37 RBI, 42 SB
Alex Gordon - .253, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 4 SB
Jorge Bonifacio - .246, 13 HR, 29 RBI
Danny Duffy - 14-7, 3.67 ERA, 178 IP, 159 SO
Brad Keller - 16-9, 3.83, 197 IP, 156 SO
Jakob Junis - 15-12, 4.09 ERA, 171 IP, 148 SO
Ian Kennedy - 11-14, 4.84 ERA, 168 IP, 156 SO
Jorge Lopez - 12-13, 4.21 ERA, 138 IP, 141 SO
Eric Skoglund - 2-6, 5.14 ERA, 60 IP, 40 SO
Wily Peralta - 3.82 ERA, 2 H, 32 SV, 44 IP, 41 SO
Tim Hill - 4.31 ERA, 17 H, 3 SV, 49 IP, 37 SO
Kevin McCarthy - 3.31 ERA, 21 H, 5 SV, 70 IP, 73 SO
Brian Flynn - 3.97 ERA, 11 H, 1 SV, 59 IP, 55 SO
Jake Newberry - 5.72 ERA, 3 H, 0 SV, 22 IP, 13 SO
Ben Lively - 5.23 ERA, 4 H, 0 SV, 37 IP, 33 SO
Brad Boxberger - 4.01 ERA, 12 H, 7 SV, 52 IP, 65 SO