Armchair's Plan

Introduction

Some of you have seen the nuts and bolts of this plan, with slightly amended trade packages and my thoughts. I at least owe people an explanation on the moves even if they don’t buy the overall premise, healthy debate right?

The 2018 White Sox were rough, several flaws were obvious, as should be expected in the first evaluation year of a rebuild. It’s impossible to correct all the flaws in one shot, so I’m going to take a stab at fixing the following 4 flaws:

Infield OPS against left handed pitching – short term fix/patch

Outfield OPS against right handed pitching – medium term fix

Outfield defense generally – medium term fix

Pitching Staff Walk Rate – medium term fix

Just for the record: This is not what I think Rick Hahn will do this offseason. He just traded for Manny Banuelos, I didn't see that coming.

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

• José Abreu – $16 million - tender

• Avisaíl García – $8 million - tender

• Yolmer Sánchez – $4.7 million - tender

• Carlos Rodón – $3.7 million - tender

• Matt Davidson – $2.4 million – tender and trade

• Leury García – $1.9 million – tender and trade

• Danny Farquhar – $1.4 million – non-tender and offer him a job in the front office

I’m trading both Davidson and Leury to the same team who will use them both in platoon roles. These salaries are fine with how I project them to be used, and the opposing team would still clear $5M in salary in the move paying those two players at these prices.

Impending Free Agents

• Miguel González (2018 salary: $4.75 million) – cut loose

• Hector Santiago (2018 salary: $2 million) – cut loose

Club Options

Type "pick up" or "buy out" after both players. (Explain any tough or complicated calls.)

• James Shields: pick up $16 million option/buy out for $2 million

• Nate Jones: pick up $4.65 million option/buy out for $1.25 million

Yes, Nate Jones has an extensive injury history. No, you cannot get a reliever on the open market better than a healthy Nate Jones for $3.4 million. Let’s keep in mind that the reliever market has lately been inflated and moves pretty quickly (Bryan Shaw costs $9M/year, Melancon costs $14M/year, Soria just turned down a $10M option). We’re in an era of highly weaponized bullpens and a Jones-level arm under $5 million (what Zach Duke cost 3 years ago) is a good asset if healthy. I know health is a big issue with Jones, but with his stuff and the reliever market as is, I do not buy the argument that Nate Jones has "no value"

Jones will be traded to a team that will use him in high leverage situations and that team would also clear $3.5M in salary in the move. The acquiring team benefits twofold in that using Jones in high leverage situations keeps their pre-arb guys out of high leverage situations and present and future cost way down.

Extensions

Extend Reynaldo Lopez’s Contract for 7 years, $46 Million with 2 team option years valued at $28 Million (essentially 9 years, $74 Million) ($2M, $3.5M, $5.5M, $7.5, $7.5, $9M, $11M, $13M, $15M).

When the team gets good it will get expensive in terms of overall dollar value and prospect capital required to get missing pieces. It helps to extend upside that’s amenable to an extension. Lopez signed as an amateur for $17,000 and is represented by ISE Baseball, an agency with a good rapport with the Sox. His peripherals indicate he overachieved on ERA and his win-loss record hurts his arbitration case. I feel my speculation on Lopez’s amenability to an extension is warranted and this is a good deal for the player.

He was bogged down with a higher than his typical average hard hit rate this past season (probably due to lack of a consistently effective out pitch that DJ presented in his write up earlier this week). If Lopez can correct this, and I believe he has the makeup and pure arm talent to correct this, this contract turns Lopez into a Quintana-like asset. If Lopez does not improve and just stays a #4 starter, rolling out 185 unconvincingly good innings per year (or slotting to the bullpen for 60ish high octane innings per year), the contract isn’t a big hindrance to future payrolls.

Free agents

Yusei Kikuchi – 5 years, $76 Million, opt out after year 3

Adam Ottavino – 2 years, $24 Million

Kikuchi – I’m overpaying for the role I’m putting him in but may still be light on his market value [there are a lot of variables regarding his cost re: injury, projection, potential suitors] His repertoire reminds me of Andrew Miller, but unlike Andrew Miller I can run Kikuchi out there for 100+ innings. If you don’t have an ace in the rotation (like the Sox) it helps to have a really effective fireman in the bullpen (see Josh Hader, Yusmeiro Petit, Collin McHugh, pre-arbitration Chris Sale, etc.). This is where I’m using Kikuchi this season, and if its determined that he would be better suited to throw 6 innings every 5 days, we can use him there later.

Ottavino – I’m going to let him close for the next 2 seasons. Since he’s been a set up man his whole life, I don’t have to pay him $15M/season or sign him for 4 years. Allowing him a shot at the 9th inning for the next two years lets him go back on the market in 2 years and score a bigger contract, keeps my pre-arbitration potential 9th inning arms out of save situations, keeping their ARB1 number down, and allows me to keep Zack Burdi in the minors until a radar gun hits triple digits.

Trades

Cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for Nate Orf (UTIL). I know the Sox have some cash considerations lying around. So let’s send a little bit to Milwaukee for Nate Orf. Those of you who don’t live in Milwaukee or peruse brewcrewball don’t know why Nate Orf is a legend. To be honest, neither do we. Fangraphs loves him and the hardcore Brewer fans also love him for god knows what reason. Orf has to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from Rule 5 draft. He won’t be added by the Brewers and will definitely be picked in Rule 5. He didn’t do anything in his limited call up to the majors, but did a lot of offensive damage from several different positions all throughout his minor league career. Maybe he’s a quad A player? Or maybe he’s a really good utility piece? He has a solid platoon advantage against lefties (in the minors), which is great to spell Yolmer Sanchez and Moncada and their combined 500 OPS against lefties. He plays passable defense, and I’d like to see what he can do given 200-250 at bats spelling Sanchez, TA, Moncada, and occasionally outfielders. This is a gamble, sure. But when the incumbent options are Leury Garcia and unconvincing home run king Jose Rondon, I’m willing to see how this plays out.

Luis Curbelo (SS/3B) and Blake Battenfield (RHP) to the San Diego Padres for Travis Jankowski (OF). The White Sox outfield had under a 700 OPS against right handed pitching and generally sucks at fielding (other than Gold Glove candidate Adam Engel occasionally robbing home runs.) Jankowski is a low-cost patch to both of these flaws (if given over 200 ABs), can play all 3 outfield spots, and can run pretty well on the bases too. Jankowski is a 4th/5th outfielder controllable for 3 years via arbitration. San Diego is currently rostering something like 17 outfielders and will need to clear a spot. I doubt they have Jankowski ranked in their top 4 and if they get a prospect in name only in Curbelo and a live arm in Battenfield, why not?

Kevin Escorcia (LHP) and John Parke (LHP) to the Toronto Blue Jays for Luke Maile (C). The White Sox catchers were in the bottom of the league in framing last year; Maile was near the top, and Maile has a platoon split that can complement Narvaez that’s geared more towards power against left handed pitching.

Toronto needs to clear roster spots and playing time for both Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire. Might as well get sneaky upside for a guy who’s blocking the guys they actually want to use.

Leury Garcia (UTIL), Matt Davidson (1B/3B/RHP), and Spencer Adams (RHP) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ivan Nova (RHP). The Sox pitching staff walked the most people in baseball last season, and since Giolito still has a high ceiling, I can’t fix that problem just by cutting him right now. Like Moncada, Giolito needs another ½ season to evaluate what exactly he is. So I’m going to buy a pitcher with a traditionally low walk rate that can give me some innings. Nova is one of those guys.

Nova is on a 1 year deal for $9.2M on a team that is traditionally cash strapped. This team also has 5 other starting options on the current iteration of its roster and Mitch Keller ready to come up the minute his service clock expires. They move their #4 starter for controllable pieces that either complement the weak platoon splits of their younger players (e.g. Davidson for Moran, Bell) or can sub in anywhere the Pirates are riding inexperience (e.g. Leury in the middle infield or outfield as needed) and clear roughly $5M in salary. I think it’s a win-win. Some of you may not, and I’m happy to engage a debate with you.

Welington Castillo (C), Juan Minaya (RHP), Steele Walker (OF), Alec Hansen (RHP), and Davis Martin (RHP) to the Los Angeles Angels for Andrew Heaney (LHP) and Blake Parker (RHP). I actually think this one is more controversial than the next one just because of how difficult Heaney is to evaluate. The Sox starting pitching farm is almost exclusively right-handed power arms. I am getting a lefty, coming off of a low walk rate last year with 3 years of control via arbitration. I do believe last year was a breakout for Heaney where he showed reliable mid-rotation potential. As a result, I have to give up two 50 FV prospects and a 45 FV prospect. I also feel getting rid of Castillo appeases most Sox fans, but am aware he still has an above average bat for his position.

Dour Angels perspective: Since 2014, Heaney has had 1 year where he’s topped 150 innings. He (and every other Angels pitcher) presents a huge injury risk and right now his value is high enough to get two 50 FV guys. They also add value by replacing Blake Parker with a younger, cheaper, more controllable, similar arm. Even after the Kevan Smith signing, the current Angels 40-man roster catching staff has roughly 800 below average at bats in the majors. They’re still going to supplement it. And they’re probably not going to overpay Grandal/Wilson Ramos to do it. I would kick in some Castillo salary here if I ultimately have to. Losing Heaney might be a tough sell to the Angels fanbase, but rumor has them pretty in on Patrick Corbin – that would soften the blow. They also have something like 8-9 other injury prone starters with #3 or 4 starter upside.

Nate Jones (RHP), Blake Rutherford (OF), Carson Fulmer (RHP), and Jake Burger (3B) to the Tampa Bay Rays for Kevin Kiermaier (OF). Why the Sox would want Kevin Kiermaier isn’t the issue people have with trades involving him in offseason plans

The issues people have (and will likely continue to have) with this one arise out of three false premises: 1) Kiermaier is on a great contract and 2) Kiermaier is a ~7 WAR player therefore the return should be astronomically high.

Here goes: 1) Kiermaier plays for the Rays. The Rays payroll was ~$68 Million last year and typically sits near that number, even in contending years. Kiermaier is set to make $8 Million next year and into the 8 figures in a few years (12-15% of their overall payroll?) This amount of money FOR THE RAYS SPECIFICALLY is a big deal. Chris Archer was expensive for them. In addition to Kiermaier’s high salary (relative to the Rays), the team has Mallex Smith, Tommy Pham, and Austin Meadows ready to contribute as an above-average, MUCH cheaper outfield. Kiermaier is now expensive for them and he’s blocking guys. 2) He has also missed a full season’s worth of games over the past 3 years and is no longer the 7 win player he used to be. He’s still a good player, albeit declining, and his Aaron Rowand impression in center is really fun to watch, but let’s not confuse him with Mookie Betts. Kiermaier is a streaky hitter that plays really good defense and a bit of an injury risk in center. He earned a 2.5 WAR last year and that’s probably closer to who he is now than the 7 WAR player he used to be before his body started gradually breaking down I don’t think he’s worth Eloy Jimenez and/or Dylan Cease (or any top 50 prospect) and I don’t think I’m light on value with this offer. The Rays have different conceptions of value than most other rosters (cost considerations, player usage). Fulmer is a discount Glasnow, and if the Rays feel like they can extract his upside like they did with Glasnow, that’s a piece they can use right now. Rutherford is on the almighty MLB Top 100 list and can slide in when Tommy Pham gets expensive in 1-2 years. Jake Burger is an enigma due to freak injuries, but was a former 1st rounder and a highly regarded amateur power bat. Nate Jones can be their 9th inning guy right now and keep ARB1 salaries on their other late inning options down Rays value low cost more than any other franchise in baseball.

Summary

Catching: Omar Narvaez, Luke Maile

I’m platooning this all the way. Both bats play up on the platoon split. And the pitching staff gets occasionally really good framing when going up against a LHP.

Infield: Jose Abreu (1B), Yoan Moncada (2B), Tim Anderson (SS), Yolmer Sanchez (3B), Daniel Palka (DH), Nate Orf (INF)

The first four are my starters. I will be using Orf to take away Moncada’s and Sanchez’s at bats against lefties (mostly Sanchez, because Moncada is in my future plans and needs more reps against lefties before I fully write that part of his game off, and its still unknown whether Orf’s minor league ability to crush left handed pitching translates to the majors) while spelling TA, Yolmer, and Yoan when they need days off against RHP. I anticipate Orf getting between 200-250 at bats here, with Yolmer losing maybe 100 AB’s against lefties and Yoan losing about 70. I have Palka DHing against all righties with a rotational DH when a LHP is on the mound.

Outfield (Opening Day): Avisail Garcia (RF), Kevin Kiermaier (CF), Travis Jankowski (LF), Adam Engel (OF)

Outfield (post-service clock): Eloy Jimenez (RF), Avisail Garcia (LF), Kevin Kiermaier (CF), Travis Jankowski (OF), Adam Engel (OF)

When Eloy’s up, he’s in right field every game and I’ll get creative using the other four. I thought Eloy was ready to contribute last year and was kept down purely for service time reasons (scorching hot take) and I think he will definitely be ready this year. There are some complementary platoon splits (Kiermaier/Engel makes sense to me as does Garcia/Jankowski), and a few guys can be part of the rotational DH against lefties. It’s a better outfield than last year both offensively and defensively. It blocks a few guys in the short term, which is fine with me as banking on several prospects to breakout at a certain time isn’t the best recipe for success.

Starting Rotation: Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Andrew Heaney, Ivan Nova, Lucas Giolito

Should be better than last year if everyone’s healthy and Giolito gets a fire lit under him because Lopez gets an extension while Giolito technically has to battle Dylan Covey for a rotation spot. Kikuchi/Covey will get occasional spot starts. And minor call ups for September or in case of injury are probably going to be Jordan Stephens, Jordan Guerrero, and maybe Dylan Cease/Dane Dunning if they’re having good years and the Sox are contending.

Bullpen – Firemen: Yusei Kikuchi, Dylan Covey

Covey has better splits as a reliever and the general critique was he got killed 3rd time through the order. This role allows me to extract efficient innings out of him while keeping him away from his biggest weakness. Kikuchi is probably/definitely overqualified for this role, but its similar logic. Rest and recovery in the NPB is different systemically than rest and recovery in the MLB. There will be an adjustment period, and injury concerns are heightened when the training regimen changes. Since Kikuchi has a history of shoulder fatigue, I don’t want to put a ton of innings on his arm right away. If he’s his best self for 80-100 innings, I’ll take that over a possible dead arm around 150 innings.

Bullpen – Low/Medium Leverage: Ryan Burr (probably cut when Eloy arrives), Ian Hamilton, Caleb Frare

Let them loose, for one batter to one inning at a time.

Bullpen – Medium/High Leverage: Blake Parker, Jace Fry, Adam Ottavino

Ottavino gets the Ninth, Parker and Fry get the 7th and 8th as set up/high leverage guys.

This team should be a lot better than the last one while still leaving it around a $95-100 million payroll (roughly 25th in the league). Rick Renteria will still have to platoon the crap out of starting lineup and Eloy, Moncada and Giolito will need to approach their ceilings this year to push for the playoffs, but it’s a step in the right direction in addressing 4 noticeable flaws. Hope you all enjoyed reading this, and sorry I didn’t pay an old 3B with a bad haircut 100 million dollars, but next offseason might have a few good 3B in it if I need one (spoiler: I’m going after Xander).