Could King Felix be the next Verlander?
In a move that was a long overdue, the Seattle Mariners announced yesterday (August 9, 2018) that Felix Hernandez would be headed to the bullpen for the first time in his Major League career. Once, the dominant ace of the Seattle staff and the most sought-after pitcher in all of baseball, Hernandez has endured the worst season in his professional career. Hopefully the move to the bullpen will help King Felix. His velocity is down, he has struggled with command, but more than anything, there seems to be something seriously wrong with the best pitcher in Mariner’s history.
For a year now, I have felt that fixing King Felix would be as simple as observing what Justin Verlander has done over the course of his career. After careful analysis, there seems to be a real correlation between the two pitchers and a recent interview with Verlander could help to reveal how the King could reclaim his crown.
Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander each started their Major League careers in 2005, however their path to the big leagues could not have been more different. Hernandez, as most Seattle fans know, was signed out of Venezuela in 2003 at the age of 17. He worked his way through the Mariner farm system, stopping in Everett, Wisconsin, Inland Empire, San Antonio and finally Tacoma. In 2005, after over 300 minor league innings under his belt, he made his debut for Seattle against Verlander’s Tigers.
Justin Verlander was drafted out of Old Dominion University with the 2nd overall pick in the 2004 Major League Draft. After only 118 innings in the minors, Verlander made his Detroit debut on the 4th of July against the Cleveland Indians. He only made two spot starts for the Tigers, coming up from the Tiger’s Advanced-A team, Lakeland and finished the year at AA Erie. Hernandez had much more success in his first season; however, Verlander was named the American League Rookie of the Year in 2006.
In 2014, Justin Verlander (at age 31) had his worst season as a starting pitcher. In 32 games and 206 innings, his ERA climbed to 4.54 and opponents were hitting .275 against him. His 1.398 WHIP was highest since he led the American league in losses in 2008, his only season in a seven-year span of not making the All-Star team. Opponents averaged 9.7 hits against Verlander, the highest in his career. His strikeouts per 9, 6.9, was the lowest since his first full season. Both his Wins Above Average (-0.9) and his Wins Above Replacement (0.9) were also his lowest.
Ten years into his stellar career, and after three years after being awarded both the Cy Young and American League Most Valuable Player, Justin Verlander appeared to be finished.
In January of 2014, Verlander had core-muscle surgery to repair a tear in his back. This surgery could be the reason for his struggles. In 2015, the Tigers sent him to Toledo with an apparent triceps injury. He made two rehab starts for for the Mud Hens and was recalled. In an August 9th, 2018 Detroit News article Verlander revealed that he believed the Tigers misdiagnosed him. Instead of the triceps injury, he said an MRI revealed he re-tore a muscle in his back,
Five years later, Verlander continues to dominate the American League and has re-discovered his ability to pitch. At age 35, he is one reason removed finishing in the top-five in the Cy Young race and a winning a World Championship for the Astros. Statistically, he is on pace to put together another career season much like his Cy Young/MVP season.
Injury aside, Verlander has grown as a pitcher. This is where I see the biggest problem with Hernandez. He still is trying to be the pitcher he was several years ago. As he ages, he has to adjust in order to still be effective.
In 2014, Verlander’s sudden loss in velocity easily could have been blamed on his injury. He threw his fastball at 92, his slider at 86, his curveball at 79 and had an 83 mph changeup. Just three years earlier, his fastball topped out at 95, a huge difference for a major league pitcher. The back injury was definitely the culprit and it forced Verlander to change his approach on the mound. Although he threw fastballs 57% of the time in ’11, there was not much change in ’14 with the fastball making up 56% of his arsenal. His choice of off-speed pitches reflected the biggest change between his best and worst seasons. Verlander relied on his curveball the most in 2011. He threw the 79 mph pitch 18.3% of the time. He threw a change up 16.3% of his pitches and his slider, as a fourth pitch, 8.4%. In ’14, he relied on the slider and curveball, each around 15% of his pitches and threw less change-ups (13%). When this happened, teams started hitting him harder. Batters went from hitting the ball "softly" against him 25% of the time to only 20%. Hard hit balls jumped from from 22% to 28%.
Through 25 starts this season (an American League high), Verlander’s fastball is back up to 95, and he is throwing it 62% of the time, the highest since 2009. He relies on his slider as his second option, more than any other off-speed pitch, throwing it 22% of the time. His changeup and curveball, which both gained velocity (87.2 and 79.5 respectably) only make up about 15% of his pitch selection. He also has dabbled with a cutter. Batters are still hitting him hard, at a 29% rate, one percent higher than his worst season. The change that has made him more dominant though is that he has thrown more balls inside the strike zone (48.3%) and have hitters make less contact (72.7%) both tops for his career.
There is some definite correlation for Hernandez. Looking at one of his best seasons, (2010, when he won the Cy Young) and comparing it to this season (clearly his worst as a professional), there are a lot of similarities with Verlander’s 2011 and 2014 seasons.
In 2010, a 24-year-old Hernandez used his bravado to mow through the American League. A year removed from taking second in the Cy Young voting and earning his first All-Star nomination, King Felix was ready to prove that he was the best pitcher in baseball. He finished with a mediocre 13-12 season, however wins and losses are not the best measure of a pitcher’s talent, especially for the 101-loss Mariners that season.
Hernandez lived and died with his fastball. He topped it out at 94.1 mph and threw it 60.7% of the time. Seven years later, his fastball has now dropped almost 5 miles per hour at 89.2 and he only throws it 41.8% of the time. The fastball, which used to be his best pitch, topped the 95 mph average over 20% of the times he threw it in 2010. Now, 20% of the time, his fastball does not even reach 89.
Hernandez relied on a knee-buckling changeup in his Cy Young season. The change was thrown 15% of the time, at 89.8 mph, a four mile per hour difference from his fastball. The 86 mph slider and 82 mph curveball made up 24% of the rest of his arsenal.
This season, at age 32, Hernandez still relies on his changeup, but it is his curveball that is his second most thrown pitch. Hernandez’s curveball is thrown 27% of the time at 78.8 mph and has a slow curve he drops in at 72.4 mph. This 10 mph difference is definitely something that can disrupt batter’s timing. The nasty changeup is no longer as nasty. He throws it 25% of the time at 85 miles per hour. The four mile per hour difference is similar to 2010, but has become less king-like and more average. Hernandez utilizes an 82 mph slider, an 89 mph sinker and an 86 mph cutter. The difference in location and movement has not been the issue. The fact that most of his off speed pitches are similar in speed to his fastball is the biggest issue.
I am not trying to say that Hernandez is hurt. There is a good possibility that he could be. What I am trying to say is that I believe Hernandez could easily regain his stuff on the mound, but it will require work. The swagger that he had as a 24-year-old kid is still there and it sucks to face reality especially in a year where the Mariners need King Felix to be kingly. At his age, there is no reason why he could not do what Justin Verlander has done: redefine himself and get back to the dominant pitcher he once was.