The Rotation Options Part 1: Possible Additions

The constant debate here at AN has focused on the A's pitching staff. The perceived weakness in the staff has split our community into two camps: sign Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb or stand pat and see if some of the youngsters develop. Lets delve into these two options!

Part 1: The argument for adding is that we do not have any TOR pitchers as currently constructed and adding a vet could help to bring along a youngster. Of the three options most mentioned Arrieta has the most experience at the TOR so we will start with him.

Arrieta will be 32 in a couple of days and was somewhat a late bloomer with his first good season coming at the age of 28.

Age 28: His line was 25 GS 10-5 2.53 era .989 WHIP

Age 29: 33 GS 22-6 1.77 era .865 WHIP

Age 30: 31 GS 18-8 3.10 era 1.08 WHIP

Age 31: 30 GS 14-10 3.53 era 1.22 WHIP

It is said that they went into the offseason looking for Scherzer/Greinke/Price money. Bruce Levine of 670 the score stated that the starting point in Arrieta talks is 6 years 160 (mlb tr). I firmly believe that there is no way that we would get Arrieta due to the price tag and I would also argue that there is no reason that we would want him due to the major decline in performance heading into post-prime years.

The next best TOR option base on past results is Lynn. He has made 30+ starts 4 times with a 5th season at 29 starts and 6 appearances out of the pen. He has had one lost year due to injury but bounced back strong last season. So using the same approach as with Arrieta lets look at his last few seasons:

Age 25: 29 GS 35G 18-7 3.78 era 1.3a WHIP

Age 26: 33 GS 15-10 3.97 era 1.31 WHIP

Age 27: 33 GS 15-10 2.74 era 1.26 WHIP

Age 28: 31 GS 12-11 3.03 era 1.37 WHIP

Age 29: Out

Age 30: 11-8 3.43 era 1.22 WHIP

Lynn looks like a much lower ceiling but also lower floor than Arreita who also has a couple more potential prime years left in the tank. He is said to be seeking a 3 year 15-20 million AAV contract. According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand pointed to a lot of contracts with AAVs between 12-15 million as likely landing spots for him. If he could be had for 12-13 million for 2 years then it might be a good idea to sign him. The question would then become, does he want to come to Oakland? If so, how low would he be willing to go?

The third option often talked about is Alex Cobb, who like Lynn, is coming back from a lost season due to injury. Cobb is probably in the same contract range as Lynn so it is best to compare these two especially since Arrieta aint happenin.

Age 24: GS 23 11-9 4.03 era 1.25 WHIP

Age 25: GS 22 11-3 2.76 era 1.15 WHIP

Age 26: GS 27 10-9 2.87 era 1.13 WHIP

Age 27: Out

Age 28: GS 5 1-2 8.59 era 1.77 WHIP

Age 29: GS 29 12-10 3.66 era 1.22 WHIP

Cobb is still a younger option than Lynn and is coming off of the year in which he made his most starts and pitched his most innings so there is a longer window in the prime making him a more likely candidate to sign to a 3-4 year deal which is what these pitchers are asking for. He will likely want similar money to Lynn. So the question becomes, which of these two would you rather have for something around 3/39 if they would sign that with the A's?

Overall I think that Cobb is too much like our current rotation. He has only thrown over 150 innings twice in his career (166 in 2014 and 179 last year) While Lynn has been over 200 IP twice and the lowest inning total he has posted in a full season is 175.1. Both of these pitchers come with questions and draft pick compensation but both could be helpful in different ways. Lynn would be a more stabilizing force and potential innings eater while Cobb has higher upside but might only make 25 starts.