The Rotation Part 2: Internal Options

The A's FO has stated that they are up against the budget and will not be spending any more money which makes the addition of Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn unlikely. Our corner of the internet has been at each others throats over this issue with many points being made on both sides about the validity of the claims that we have no money or that Fisher is just pocketing it all and is a cheap bastard like our other ownerships past. I am not here to get into these argument, I am here to see what the best path forward is financials be damned. In part 1 I covered the 3 most talked about options with their pro/cons (https://www.athleticsnation.com/2018/3/4/17078158/the-rotation-options-part-1-possible-additions).

Our current rotation is sounding like Manaea/Graveman 1 and 2 (order to be determined), Mengden #3, Blackburn as the favorite to have a spot at the back and the 5th spot being taken by one of the other guys. First I will focus on the 4 that have been seemingly given votes of confidence by Melvin or the FO in interviews.

My preference for OD starter is Manaea. He has shown flashes of potential but in his two years he has not quite locked it in for the full season. Last year in April he went 1-2 with a 5.18 era in 5 starts but then followed that up with 19 starts from May-July in which he had a 7-3 record and 3.5 era. He struggled again in August to the tune of 1-3 9.17 in 5 starts that encompassed 17.2 IP. In September he found his form again and went 3-2 with a 3.54 ERA.

His rookie season started off much like last year. In 6 starts between April and May he rocked a 1-3 record in 6 starts with an era of 7.03. He then followed that up by going 6-6 with a 2.96 era.

Keep in mind that he is only 26 years old and is reaching his prime years. If he starts the season strong then we have a legit #2 moving forward who has ACE potential.

Verdict: #1 in our OD rotation #1 ceiling #2 best fit #3 floor

Graveman is the #2 on this staff but profiles more as a 3/4 starter. Here is a breakdown of his 3 years in the green and gold:

Age 24: GS 21 6-9 4.05 era 1.4 WHIP

Age 25: GS 31 10-11 4.11 era 1.3 WHIP

Age 26: GS 19 6-4 4.19 era 1.39 WHIP

Once the rest of the rotation shakes out he will then settle into his rightful place as the #4. He is a good player but he is not an OD starter or TOR type guy despite his 2015 spring training where he went 3-1 with a .36 era in 6 starts.

Verdict: #2 in our OD rotation #3 ceiling #4 Best fit #5 floor

Spot #3 in our rotation is most likely going to Daniel Mengden. In his age 23 season he came up and was dominated by MLB hitters to the tune of a 6.5 era in 14 starts where he went 2-9. Last year he made two very forgettable early season starts where he gave up 9 runs in 8 innings. He was then banished to Nashville where many barely 24 year olds go to figure out what needs to be worked on. When he returned in September the results were much better. He only gave up 6 runs in 35 IP for a 3-1 record and 1.54 era. It is important to take late season stats with a grain of salt due to late season roster composition but the fact of the matter is that he dominated a bunch of ML and guys deemed to be ML ready. Mengden still comes with question marks. Is he the guy we saw in his age 23 and start of age 24 seasons? Or has he progressed?

Verdict: #3 in our OD rotation #2 ceiling #5 floor

Next on the votes of confidence list is Blackburn. Blackburn is your prototypical #5 starter who bounces between AAA and the back of your rotation due to strength. He is the kind of player that AN loves to fall in love with but we all know he is just waiting for the clock to strike midnight and our hearts will be broken. I hope the glass slipper continues to fit because last year was a miracle in may ways. 3-1 with a 3.22 era in 58.2 IP over 10 starts. The major problem here is that he only struck out 22 batters in those 58+ innings which by every metric says he will get tagged. Somehow he did not. I am rooting for him but we will see what happens this year.

Verdict: #4 OD rotation #5 Ceiling Likely a AAAA player.

Now we get to the part of our rotation where we have no idea what will happen. The 40 man roster options here are:

The "no way" options:

Alcantara (not happening, either slides into the pen or is DFA'd), Bassitt (will start the year in Nashville for sure), Montas (headed for Nashville to continue the SP experiment before the eventual move to the bullpen)

The "contenders": Gossett, Triggs, Cotton.

Lets start with Andrew Triggs. In two years in the green and gold we have seen Triggs in 36 games with 18 of those being starts. He is 6-7 with a 4.29 era and a 1.28 WHIP. He has also struggled with injury missing out on the bulk of last year with a bum hip. The case for him in our rotation is that he went 4-1 with a 1.84 era in his first 5 starts last year. The next 5 were perfectly fine starts where we went 1-3 but had a still very good 3.45 era. Then in June it all fell apart to the tune of 0-2 17.18 era and a jacked up hip. The case against him is that he has an injury history and 10 really good to decent starts is a very small sample size.

Verdict: Best fit - Long reliever

Daniel Gossett had a no good very bad 2017. 4-11 with a 6.11 era does not instill a lot of confidence. This was also his first taste of the major leagues. AN's own Alex Hall posted this article upon his callup last year (https://www.athleticsnation.com/2017/6/10/15776946/oakland-as-expected-recall-daniel-gossett-mlb-debut). This is a young guy with tons of upside and 4 pitches who struggled in his first cup of tea. I would preach patience with him.

Verdict: AAA to start the year. First guy up.

The touch the feel of Cotton, the fabric of our lives. The fabric of A's fans lives is woven through the myriad of prospects and potential just hoping that they pan our. I feel that Cotton is the best option for the 5th spot in the rotation. He has an absolutely filthy changeup and if he can figure it out has the highest ceiling in this group. If there is one thing that this season should be about it is figuring out who is most likely to achieve their promise and seeing who flames out. In Cotton's debut he went 2-0 with a 2.15 era in 5 late season starts. This is what I will dub the Daric Barton effect (at the age of 21 he played in 18 late season games where he slashed .347/.429/1.067 and had 13 xbh). We all know how that worked out. That isnt to say that the potential wasnt there it is just a caution that late season stats can mean absolutely nothing or in fact be very very dangerous. Last year Cotton was torched. In 24 starts he went 9-10 with a 5.58 era. You cant even paint a rosy picture looking at the monthly splits. His best month he went 2-2 with a 4.18 era and that was the only month the era was under 5. BUT, there is still potential there. The A's need to figure out what they actually have which is why he should get the first crack at the rotation.

Verdict: #5 OD rotation #3 ceiling AAAA floor.

Complicating matters is the options or lack thereof for some of the people listed. The solution is to, please for the love of all that is holy, not have Casilla or Hendriks on the OD roster. This opens up a spot in the pen for Triggs and possibly Alcantara depending on 7 or 8 man pen.

I was starting to run out of steam there or I would have taken the dive even further on this. So, looking at the options, Add a piece or try out the youngsters? I would vote to try out the youngsters because this year is not the year we have a true shot at contention and we need to see who sticks before they all run out of options and some blossom in other uniforms. However, I would not by any means be upset if Lynn or Cobb was added for on a short term deal with a reasonable AAV.

My OD rotation would look like this:

MLB: Manaea, Graveman, Mengden, Cotton, Blackburn

AAA: Puk, Gossett, Holmes, Bassit, Montas

MLB Pen: Triggs,Alcantara, Hatcher, Culombe, Pagan, Petit, Buchter, Treinen

AAA: Dull, Trivino

DFA or trade: Casilla and Hendriks

I'm probably missing something here but hey, free content!