Early season takeaways: Stewart-Haas Racing, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Busch lead the way
Analyzing what’s happened through the first six weeks of the 2018 Cup Series season and what to look for when NASCAR returns after its Easter holiday break.
After a six-race stretch to begin the 2018 season that involved crisscrossing the country with races on both coasts, the NASCAR Cup Series is off this weekend. For some, the break is timely as it allows them to regroup and recalculate following a difficult start to the season. For others, hitting the pause button means a halt to a rollicking opening where the wins and good finishes were in abundance.
Although six races into a 26-race regular season may seem a little early to make any definitive conclusions on what’s transpired thus far, this is also effectively the one-quarter mark of the regular season. Enough has happened already to provide a pretty good snapshot to assess what’s occurred and to gauge the impact going forward.
Austin Dillon, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Clint Bowyer have virtually solidified their spots in the playoff field by registering a win. And though they have yet to win themselves, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson have each demonstrated both speed and consistency through the opening weeks to feel good about their playoff aspirations.
Theoretically, this leaves six of 16 postseason berths up for grabs. Among the next tier of drivers, the likeliest choices to qualify (in no particular order): Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, and then a battle between Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, and Alex Bowman for the final spot. Of course, there is always a surprise winner or two that emerges, which will only further muddle things.
Rarely does Kyle Busch find himself overshadowed, but thanks to Harvick winning three consecutive races and Stewart-Haas Racing’s sterling overall performance, that is the position he finds himself in even though he’s been superb. No, the 2015 Cup Series champion has yet to win, but he does have three runner-up finishes and is atop the points standings.
Busch’s season-first victory is going to occur soon. And when it does, expect it to be the first of many for a driver seemingly well on his way to making the championship final four for a fourth straight year.
If the playoffs started today, all four SHR drivers would qualify, underscoring the organizational-wide dominance exhibited by the team co-owned by Tony Stewart and Gene Haas.
That Harvick and Kurt Busch are doing well is no surprise, as each has made playoffs every season since joining SHR in 2014. The same cannot be said of Bowyer, who after a turbulent first season with SHR has rebounded by elevating his performance where he’s now more in line with what is expected of a driver aligned with top organization.
As for Almirola, he was half a lap away from winning the Daytona 500 and has proven to be a significant upgrade over the previous driver of the No. 10 car. He’s given the team a level of consistency it lacked, with already as many top-10 finishes (two) as Danica Patrick had in her past 100 races with SHR. And things should only continue to improve as Almirola further acclimates himself to his new home.
If Roush Fenway Racing is to place a driver in the postseason its hopes again hinge on winning next month at Talladega Superspeedway or at Daytona International Speedway in July. Neither Ricky Stenhouse Jr. nor Trevor Bayne have the consistency or the speed to think either can punch their playoff ticket by accumulating enough points. And with Roush’s cars a class below the sport’s powerhouses, a win on other than restrictor-plate track is doubtful.
The good news is Stenhouse went back-to-back in plate races a year ago, and Bayne’s lone Cup Series victory came in the Daytona 500. It also helps that both know Talladega and Daytona are essentially must-wins, allowing Stenhouse and Bayne to race unfettered and as aggressive as they need to be to capture the checkered flag.
Despite sweeping personnel changes and Chevrolet replacing the outdated SS with a sleeker Camaro body style, Hendrick Motorsports continues to languish well below its customary high standards. Most weeks, its four drivers — Bowman, Elliott, Johnson, and rookie William Byron — have largely been nonfactors and routinely well behind the pace set by SHR, Joe Gibbs Racing, Furniture Row Racing, and Team Penske.
The consensus within Hendrick during the offseason was that success wouldn’t be instantaneous and the best barometer of where it stood compared other teams could come late spring, early summer after having actual on-track time with the new Camaro and then tweaking the car accordingly; a valid and realistic timetable.
I saw this quote from Babe Ruth:
— Jimmie Johnson (@JimmieJohnson) March 26, 2018
It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up.
I couldn’t agree more and can’t wait to get back to the track.
Still, even with all the changes, Hendrick should be better than it has shown. Bowman, Byron, Elliott, and Johnson have combined for just five top-10 finishes — the same number Logano, Truex, and Kyle Busch have racked up themselves — and outside of the Daytona 500, none of them have been close to reaching victory lane.
It is evident a lot of work needs to be done if Hendrick is going to return as the measuring stick every other team judge itself against. As it stands, only Bowman (14th in points) is in a position above the playoff cutline, while Johnson (17th) is the only driver inside the top 20 who’s not led a single lap.
What championship hangover? This isn’t applicable to Truex, who not only already has a victory but enters the off week riding a streak of five consecutive top-five finishes.