Snowing in the Northern French Alps this week !
Snow, rain, wind and bright spells. The week ahead has it all in the N French Alps & surrounding areas.
A real mixture of weather and snow conditions lies ahead for the N French Alps this coming week. A storm from Monday to Wednesday morning is expected to bring plenty of fresh snow to the N French Alps. Higher temperatures and rain up to higher altitudes, at the beginning of the storm(s) – with lower temperatures at the end of the storm is good news for the quality of snow that we will end up with and the overall stability of the snowpack (the free water created by rain and melting is now freezing and contributing to solidifying the snowpack especially from 2000m and below). This is why the danger levels will be one level, or maybe even two levels, lower below approx 2000m.
With yo-yoing temperatures, mostly above average for the time of season, when the storm started on Sunday/Monday night and throughout most of Monday it was only snowing at very high altitudes, with a rain/snow limit around 2300 m. On Monday night and into Tuesday, temperatures decreased with snow falling down to altitudes of 1100 m. Amounts of snowfall expected vary from region to region, but roughly around 40 cm of fresh snow above 2400 m, and maybe up to 90 cm in the Vanoise area of Savoie (e.g. Courchevel, Les Menuires…).
Any precipitation should die out by Wednesday morning, followed by a couple of clear days, with more snow showers probably coming in on Friday/Saturday.
Avalanche Bulletin
Meteo France had been seriously considering raising the avalanche risk to a high 4/5 for Tuesday, but they rightly changed that decision to keep levels at a ‘considerable’ 3/5 above 1800m, and a ‘moderate’ 2/5 at lower altitudes. This was due to the amount of precipitation that actually fell as rain on Monday, particularly below 1800 m, and as very humidified snow above that, refreezing and solidifying overnight.
An avalanche risk of ‘considerable’ 3 should never be underestimated, as discussed in a previous snow report. And there is a chance of the danger level spiking briefly up to ‘high’ 4 over the next 24 hrs from this writing.
See these avalanche danger scale definitions from the European Avalanche Warning Services.
Above 2500m, the fresh snow which remained dry (above the rain/snow limit) on Monday will become a future temporary weak layer. There is also a persistant weak layer in the snowpack that is buried deep and not easy to trigger BUT with all this new snow (weight) coming down on top of the exisiting layers, we all should not rule out the possibility of triggering a massive avalanche on steep (most probable on North’ish slopes). Weak layers are at the root of almost all serious avalanche accidents in the Alps. So anyone who is heading for steep slopes with fresh snow needs to think seriously beforehand i.e. APPLY key safety points that are outlined in our Framework.
Weather forecast : Tues 28th Jan to Sun 2nd Feb
See the snow report below from Snow-Forecast.com.
Safety is Freedom!
To be safe and have more fun when you’re off-piste, check out our 12 minute overview of the HAT Framework method and the Essentials Talk entitled “Safety is Freedom Pocket Guide” on Video. It contains the key points that you need to know and to apply in order to keep things acceptably safe off-piste and ski touring, and to have more fun with or without a professional!
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