What is ‘Dangerous’? What is (Acceptably) ‘Safe’?

Henry’s Upcoming Talks: Defining ‘Dangerous,’ ‘Safe,’ and ‘Acceptable Risk’

How would you define terms like ‘dangerous,’ ‘safe,’ or ‘risky’? When is taking a risk acceptable, and when does it become too much?

Our goal with the HAT Framework Method is to guide you in managing avalanche terrain risks so that the ‘danger’ aligns with everyday activities. This is what we call ‘acceptably safe’—recognizing that even routine activities, like driving a car, carry significant risk. For example, car accidents lead to many fatalities annually in countries like the UK, USA, and France.

Moreover, our personal perceptions of what is ‘safe’ often differ widely from person to person, and can be misleading. As renowned avalanche expert, Bruce Tremper discusses in his blog (linked below), we may feel that travelling by plane is dangerous, but, statistically, it’s far safer than driving. This highlights a natural misconception about risk that we often have when considering what’s‘safe’ and what’s ‘dangerous.’

At HAT, we believe that any Talk about Safety needs a clear, foundational definition of  what ‘acceptable risk’ is — what we might call ‘safe’ or ‘acceptably safe.’

Bruce Tremper provides concrete examples, using useful benchmarks derived from extensive research by the international snow and avalanche science community. His article, “What is the Risk of Riding in Avalanche Terrain,” offers a comparison between the risks in avalanche terrain and other activities. [Read his blog article here.]

In his upcoming talks, Henry expands on Tremper’s benchmarks of comparing avalanche terrain risks with those in other everyday activities. He shows that with the right strategies (such as the HAT Framework Method) you can reduce avalanche risk to a level comparable with driving to a ski resort or touring destination.

Ultimately, it all comes down to how effectively you apply your knowledge and experience.

As Bruce Tremper notes in his blog:

Our lives revolve around risk, but it’s a concept most of us don’t understand well. The human brain is good at many things, such as pattern recognition and the nuances of social interaction, but it is notoriously poor at statistics and probability.

People who are afraid to fly don’t mind driving, although, on average, you would have to fly every day for 4,000 years for you to be killed on a commercial aviation flight – whereas automobile fatalities are so common you hardly see them mentioned in the newspaper anymore (32,000 per year in the USA).

We’re afraid to let our kids ride the bus to school, yet there are only 3 deaths per year on school buses and 600 per year from parents driving their kids to school.

So what does this Framework Method, that helps us focus and apply what we know (or what we are learning), look like?

Henry will be explaining this in clear and simple terms at our events this Autumn, with upcoming talks next week in Hemel Hempstead, followed by Manchester, Kendal and Glasgow. See below for more details.

Bruce Tremper reaches a fascinating and encouraging conclusion

Skiing and riding in avalanche terrain is surprisingly safe as long as it’s done using all the risk reduction measures taught in avalanche classes. It’s about the same risk as driving one hour to the trailhead.

There is a big BUT

But randomly riding in 10 potential avalanche paths per day without any risk reduction measures at Considerable or High Danger can be one of the most dangerous sports in the world.

Someone who randomly (i.e. without taking risk reduction measures) rides the centre line of 10 slopes per day in terrain rated as Moderate Danger (2 on a scale of 5) takes roughly the same risk as whitewater kayaking or skydiving.  But still much less dangerous than riding a motorcycle.

Randomly riding the centre line of 10 slopes per day in terrain rated as Considerable Danger (3 on a scale of 5) has roughly the same risk as base jumping, which is considered to be one of the world’s most dangerous sports, and one with a notoriously short expected lifespan for regular participants.

Doing the same in terrain rated as High Danger (4 on a scale of 5) is one of the most dangerous activities in the world besides climbing above 8,000 meters.

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