NCAA volleyball: How each No. 1 seed can get to the semifinals of the 2024 tournament

The 2024 NCAA volleyball tournament field is down to 16 teams, and we break down who will challenge the top seeds.

An action packed weekend of volleyball whittled down the 2024 NCAA tournament field from 64 teams to a sweet group of 16 teams vying for spots in the semifinals.

The volleyball world will now shift its focus to Pittsburgh, State College, Lincoln and Louisville where the top seeded teams all advanced to host the next two rounds. As Pitt, Penn State, Louisville and Nebraska hope to cap off their home field advantage and earn two more wins to reach the Final Four, let’s reset their regions and assess the difficulty — on a 1-10 scale — for each of those top seeds to advance to the semifinals.

Pitt Regional

No. 1 Pitt vs. No. 4 Oregon

Pitt has familiarity with the Ducks, who played host to the Panthers way back in August in a match Oregon lost 3-0. Despite the sweep, the Ducks kept the second and third sets close, losing those only 27-25 and 25-23.

In the tournament, Oregon swept High Point before dropping the opening set against TCU in the second round. But they came back with some impressive and dominant volleyball to win 3-1 (19-25, 25-21, 25-11, 25-15). Outside hitter Mimi Colyer had 19 kills and two aces en route to the victory. The Ducks had 12 aces as a team to just 10 service errors, with that service pressure leading to long runs that helped reach the dominant scoreline.

Pitt handled both its contests, first against Morehead State and second against Oklahoma. The Sooners gave the Panthers all they could handle in the first set, forcing extra points at 28-26, but eventually Pitt swept 3-0 to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No.7 Missouri

An all-SEC battle, Missouri upset the No. 2 seeded SMU Mustangs in the second round to advance. The Tigers were led by outside hitter Mychael Vernon’s 23 kills while Jordan Iliff scored a double double of 16 kills and 10 digs along with four aces. The Tigers’ serving was crucial, racking up 11 aces in the upset victory.

Missouri has a chance to get revenge on Kentucky, who beat them twice in the year during conference play. The SEC Champion Wildcats will rely on outside hitter Brooklyn DeLeye, UK’s leader in kills who had double digit kills in both wins against the Tigers in the regular season.

Difficulty rating for No. 1 seed Pitt: 4. The Panthers have been the number one ranked team pretty much all year, but the Sooners out-blocked them 17-8 in their second round match. That could be a key for Oregon to try and force an upset, who is the seventh best team in the country in blocks per set. Middle blockers Colby Neal and Onye Ofoegbu would need to come up big for the Ducks to force an upset.

It could be a tricky test, but it’s easier said than done to quiet down the Panthers’ star attackers Olivia Babcock, Torrey Stafford and Valeria Vazquez Gomez. I’d say Pitt has a tough Sweet 16 match, but an easier match-up against either Kentucky or Missouri afterwards. Get through Oregon and things should be smooth sailing.

Penn State Regional

No. 1 Penn State vs. No. 5 Marquette

After dispatching Delaware State in the opening round, Penn State dropped a set against No. 8 North Carolina in the second round, but advanced with a 3-1 win. Outside hitter Jess Mruzik had 21 kills while the Nittany Lions tallied 13 blocks over the Tar Heels.

Marquette advanced to the Sweet Sixteen with wins over FGCU and a five-set thriller in Utah against the Utes. The Golden Eagles had a 2-0 lead before allowing Utah to comeback and force a fifth set. But Marquette held the Utes to .000 hitting percentage in the final set to complete the upset.

No. 2 Creighton vs. No. 3 Texas

Both the Bluejays and Longhorns got to this Sweet Sixteen match off with two sweeps in their opening rounds.

Creighton was able to sweep Ole Miss, even with the first two sets going extra points (28-26, 27-25). But the Bluejays took over in the last set, dominating the Rebels 25-7, hitting .583 while holding Ole Miss in the negatives.

The Bluejays will hope that level of play shows up against the two-time defending champion Longhorns. Texas got here by beating Texas A&M-Corpus Christi then No. 6 seed USC. Madi Skinner had 23 kills in the three set win against the Trojans as the team hit .316 overall.

Difficulty rating for No. 1 seed Penn State: 5. Penn State’s matchup against Marquette looks favorable. Utah out-blocked the Golden Eagles 17-7 despite the loss, and PSU is a physical team who could look to dominate.

The path should get harder in the Elite Eight matchup. Creighton has a lot of offensive firepower with Norah Sis and Ava Martin both averaging over 3 kills per set. The Bluejays are the 15th best serving team in the country, with 1.91 aces per set. And of course, Texas has Madi Skinner and their title pedigree that won’t shrink even with a raucous home crowd for Penn State.

Louisville Regional

No. 2 Stanford vs. No. 6 Florida

Stanford aced their opening two rounds, with sweeps over Sacramento State and Loyola Marymount. Outside hitter Ella Rubin had 15 kills in each match while the Cardinal’s serve was dangerous in both matchups, tallying 16 aces over the two matches.

Meanwhile Florida beat NC State and won a five-set thriller in an upset over the Kansas Jayhawks. In an instant classic match, Florida’s star Kennedy Martin had 33 kills for the Gators — the fifth time she’s reached that mark on the year.

No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 4 Purdue

Louisville dispatched Chicago State in its opening round match before getting pushed to the edge by Northern Iowa in the second round. The Cardinals managed to beat the Panthers after being down 2-1 in the match, winning the last two sets 25-13 then 22-20 — another instant classic. The Cardinals had 25 blocks in that match while Anna DeBeer and Charitie Luper each had 19 kills.

Purdue’s path featured two straight sweeps over Western Michigan and Loyola Chicago, who upset No. 5 seed BYU. Purdue’s star outside hitter Eva Hudson is peaking at the right time, with 20 kills in that last win over Loyola while hitting .563.

Difficulty rating for No. 1 seed Louisville: 9. Maybe this is also because of the fact Louisville looked shaky in the second round, but this is the most likely region where the No. 1 seed falls short.

The Cardinal just knocked off Louisville before the start of the tournament — and might be even more motivated that it didn’t get the No. 1 overall seed. Stanford had four players in double digit kills in that victory and has momentum. Don’t count out Florida and Kennedy Martin either, who is a star in the making in the sport. Purdue and Hudson looked so impressive in its two games. All three of these teams seem like they could take on the Cardinals toe-to-toe. This should be box office, but could be a horror movie for Louisville fans.

Nebraska regional

No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Texas A&M

Wisconsin beat Fairfield 3-0 then Georgia Tech 3-1 to set up a rematch against the Texas A&M Aggies, who the Badgers beat 3-0 back in September. The second best blocking team in the country, Wisconsin had 14 blocks to help rally against the Yellow Jackets to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Big Ten Player of the Year Sarah Franklin had 20 kills in that outing and is having a better season than last year when she won National Player of the Year.

Meanwhile the Aggies won both matches 3-1, first over Colorado State then an upset victory over Arizona State. In that second round match, Logan Lednicky had 27 kills, 11 digs and six blocks in a monumental effort. She’s had 20+ kills in both tournament matches this season.

No. 1 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Dayton

Nebraska cruised in straight sets against Florida A&M and Miami (FL) in the first two rounds. The Huskers held the Hurricanes to just .058 hitting in that second round match and held the Rattlers to -.043 hitting in the opener. In fact, the first set didn’t even get through a full rotation with the Huskers winning 25-3.

After a sweep of Wofford in the first round, the Dayton Flyers out-lasted the Baylor Bears in a five-set thriller to advance to Lincoln. Lexie Almodovar had 34 kills against the Bears in that win, while two other Flyers — Liana Sarkissian and Brooke Smith — also reached double figures.

Difficulty rating for No. 1 seed Nebraska: 3. The Huskers bounced back after a slightly disappointing end to the season to not win the Big Ten title outright because of a loss to Penn State. It must be hard having those high standards. Dayton is plucky and Almodovar is awesome, but Nebraska has too many weapons for that opening match.

If this was about potential storyline rating, I would give it a 10 for the potential of another edition of Wisconsin vs. Nebraska. However, the Huskers beat the Badgers twice in the year without dropping a set. Although the second meeting in Lincoln was closer and Wisconsin was missing its two top defensive specialists due to injuries, I don’t necessarily see any difference. That’s not to discount A&M either, whose outside hitters will give UW some trouble as well.