Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner – Paribas Open
For nearly two decades, the story of the French Open could be summed up by one name: Rafael Nadal.
The silky-smooth Spaniard won a record 14 titles on the clay surfaces of Roland-Garros over a 19-year period, making dominance his day job in Paris. And even in those rare occasions when he didn’t emerge with a trophy, Nadal’s ouster became the headline.
But now that he’s exited stage left, there’s more oxygen for the rest of the field — and plenty of storylines worth following.
Here are a few we’re keeping our eyes on:
Has men’s tennis entered its age of parity?
In 2022, an ascendant Casper Ruud reached the French Open final only to fall to Nadal in a straight-sets rout. It would be the final time Nadal hoisted the trophy on the hallowed Roland-Garros grounds.
“I’m just another one of the victims that he has destroyed on this court in the final,” Ruud said after his loss. He returned to the final the following year, only to once again be swept, this time at the hands of Novak Djokovic.
Now, the clay courts are clear for a new era in men’s tennis.
Beyond Nadal’s well-documented French Open supremacy, he combined with Roger Federer and Djokovic to dominate this millennium. Since 2003, when Federer won Wimbledon for the first time, the Big Three have claimed 66 of 89 Grand Slam titles.
But Nadal and Federer are gone, and Djokovic’s undeniability is suddenly, well, deniable.
Carlos Alcaraz enters Paris as the reigning champion. You may remember how he did it, coming back from down 2-1 to beat Germany’s Alexander Zverev in a five-set roller-coaster.
The 21-year-old Spaniard returns to Roland-Garros on quite the roll, too, having won two clay-court tune-ups (Monte-Carlo, Rome) while finishing runner-up in a third (Barcelona). Alcaraz, seeded second, didn’t enjoy an ideal start to his season — he lost in the quarters of the Australian Open, the semis at Indian Wells and the Round of 64 in Miami — but it appears he’s now all systems go.
Still, that start lends credence to the idea that he does not carry the same air of invincibility that The Big Three once did.
Not that Italy’s Jannik Sinner would necessarily agree with that assessment. A rivalry between Alcaraz and Sinner has simmered since 2023 — but for it to boil over, the Italian would need to put an end to the Spaniard’s four-match winning streak, all of which have come in semis or finals.
The soonest he could do that would be the French Open final.
Sinner, of course, has been a subject of controversy this year, missing every tournament between Australia and Rome as he served a three-month doping ban after failing two drug tests.
The lanky 23-year-old showed little sign of rust in his return, dropping just one set en route to the Italian Open final before falling to Alcaraz. Still, he may not be met warmly by the crowds in Paris.
Meanwhile, England’s Jack Draper (seeded fifth) beat Alcaraz at Indian Wells and went on to win that tournament as well as reach the final of the Madrid, where he lost to Ruud, who is seeded seventh.
Zverev (No. 3), Taylor Fritz (No. 4) and Holger Rune (No. 10) may also have something to say about how this French Open plays out.
And then there’s the sixth-seeded elder statesman…
How much does Djokovic have left in the tank?
The last of the Big Three still competing, Djokovic, even at 38, is no slouch these days.
It’s just that the OG Serbian Djoker’s form is a far cry from his prime — as evidenced by losses to Toronto-born Alejandro Tabilo and Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi in Monte-Carlo and Madrid. In fact, Djokovic only just picked up his first wins of the clay-court season at the Geneva Open, where he’s set to play in Saturday’s final.
There’s also the question of whether the weathered star can withstand the rigours of a Grand Slam — he reached the semis in Australia, beating Alcaraz along the way, only to retire during the ensuing match against Zverev due to injury.
The peaks are still present, but the valleys are lower and more frequent now for Djokovic, whose last major championship remains the 2023 U.S. Open.
Is Iga Swiatek still the player to beat?
Over the past half-decade, Poland’s Swiatek has staked her claim as the clay queen, winning four of the past five French Opens, including three straight. The 23-year-old also won the 2023 U.S. Open, but she’s never reached a Grand Slam final otherwise.
Now, even her surface supremacy is up for debate. Swiatek heads to Roland-Garros scuffling on clay — she lost in the quarterfinals in Stuttgart, dropped a 6-1, 6-1 decision to Coco Gauff in the Madrid semis and was knocked out of Rome in the Round of 32.
Combine that with a pair of earlier losses to rising Russian Mirra Andreeva, and Swiatek has fallen to the fifth seed, making her path to a fourth-straight title that much more difficult.
Swiatek has shown enough flashes — including a stretch of four matches in Australia during which she lost just two games — that she cannot be counted out. But her competitors might still see a crack in her armour.
Aryna Sabalenka, the top seed and reigning U.S. Open champion, beat Gauff to claim the Madrid title before falling in the Rome quarters. She also won in Miami while reaching the finals at Indian Wells and Stuttgart.
The Belarusian is the betting favourite to unseat Swiatek.
“Having a target on my back right now, I love it. I take it as a challenge,” Sabalenka said.
Gauff, the 21-year-old American, has taken minor steps back at each of her last three French Opens, going from finals to semis to quarters.
But she’s now reached consecutive finals — falling to Sabalenka then Jasmine Paolini in Italy — and her draw looks relatively clear.
Andreeva, 18, has arguably been the story of the WTA season, busting out with titles at Dubai and Indian Wells before falling twice to Gauff in clay-court quarterfinals. Luckily for her, the young stars can’t meet until the semis in Paris.
Paolini, the fourth seed, also bears mentioning after claiming her home tournament in Rome. At 22-8 on the season, and having reached finals at both the French Open and Wimbledon last season, the 29-year-old Italian could be primed for a breakout.
Can any Canadian make a run?
Five Canadians will compete in the singles draws, and you can group them into two buckets.
There are the known quantities in Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov and Leylah Fernandez — they each have the talent to make a run, but often the flashes feel too few and far between.
Auger-Aliassime owns two ATP 250 titles on the season but has done little otherwise, including early exits in Monte-Carlo and Madrid before pulling out of Rome with a sore back. Shapovalov took home a title from Dallas in February, beating three top-10 players along the way, but remains just 13-10 on his season.
And Fernandez sits 12-11 and hasn’t won more than one match in a tournament since February.
In the other bucket are rising stars Gabriel Diallo and Victoria Mboko. At 23 and 18, respectively, neither has much history on tour.
Montreal’s Diallo is trending up after making good on a lucky-loser entry in Madrid to reach the quarters.
Mboko, of Toronto, sports a 40-5 record on the season, and won her way into the main draw at Roland-Garros after giving Gauff a three-set scare in Madrid and has five lower-tier victories on the season.
If a Canadian is destined to make a run at the second Grand Slam of the season, it feels like it’ll be one of them.