49ers mailbag: Here is my starting 11 to open boom-or-bust NFL Draft
SANTA CLARA – Congratulations, you were on the clock and came through with boom-or-bust questions for this NFL Draft edition of our 49ers mailbag:
Who are the Niners selecting in the first round? (@urijr49)
Gosh, that is the one question we neglected to ask John Lynch in Wednesday’s pre-draft press conference!
Here is my starting 11 for Thursday’s NFL Draft opener:
1) Titans: QB Cam Ward
2) Browns: CB/WR Travis Hunter
3) Giants: DE Abdul Carter
4) Patriots: RB Ashton Jeanty
5) Jaguars: WR Tetairoa McMillan
6) Raiders: OT Armand Membou
7) Jets: TE Tyler Warren
8) Panthers: DE Mykel Williams
9) Saints: DT Mason Graham
10) Bears: OT Will Campbell
I fear Lynch will draft Stewart based on his testing rather than his production. Which is more indicative of NFL success? I’d rather they draft (defensive tackles) Nolan or Harmon. (@DenverDrew44)
Stewart indeed tested great at the combine, after totaling just 4 ½ sacks in three seasons at Texas A&M. Georgia’s Mykel Williams also looks like a pass-rushing menace, despite never producing more than five sacks in any of his three seasons at Georgia.
Lynch’s take on conflicting measures: “You want see skills that translate to what we do, but you also want to see that they’ve done it at a high level, or at least that there’s evidence that they can do it, we believe if put in our system that they can translate.
“You end up struggling though when you project too much because these guys have had ample time and there’s always circumstances and context that you take into account as to maybe why this guy is so talented, but he’s never had the production,” Lynch continued. “At some point, the production doesn’t lie.”
The pre-draft process is full of lies. Send in the draft card with Stewart’s name. Or Williams. Or either of those defensive tackles, Walter Nolan or Derrick Harmon. Just restock that D-front.
Any chance the 49ers don’t take a defensive lineman in the first round? (@podman61)
I asked ChatGBT, and its vague answers included “pretty solid,” “very plausible,” and “safe bet.”
But you asked me. And I say: “Pretty plausible they will regret it if they don’t draft a defensive lineman. Bet on that.”
Lynch and (Kyle) Shanahan have been searching for their new Dee Ford for years. Do you think Abdul Carter could be that guy and do you think the 49ers will trade up for him? (@JWalizerJr)
Carter should be a top-three pick, and the 49ers aren’t about to repeat their 2021 gaffe of moving up that high (see: Lance, Trey).
I see a lot of mock drafts having the Niners drafting a CB with the 11th pick. Do you think the draft a CB when there are more pressing needs like DE, OL? (@BayAreaNiner)
Can’t see it. The 49ers’ defensive needs are plentiful, except for a starting cornerback tandem, where they will deploy the homegrown Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green. Also, the 49ers have not spent a first-round pick on a true cornerback since Mike Rumph in 2002; Jimmie Ward (2014) was more of a safety and nickel back.
Who do we steal in the fifth round that turns into a starter/contributor? (@jaycee003)
First-round drama aside, nothing defines this 49ers’ regime’s draft history more than an annual fifth-round dragnet. It’s produced George Kittle (2017), D.J. Reed (2018), Dre Greenlaw (2019), Colton McKivitz (2020), and Deommodore Lenoir (2021). But then came Sam Womack (2022), Darrell Luter (2023) and Robert Beal (2023).
Despite forfeiting this year’s original fifth-round pick because of a 2022 payroll error, the 49ers acquired a pair (Nos. 147 and 160) in last month’s trades of Deebo Samuel (Washington) and Jordan Mason (Minnesota). Now the 49ers can double this year’s fifth-round pleasure: defensive tackle C.J. West (Indiana) and wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. (Tennessee).
Trade down or up (@T8771J)
The 49ers obviously would prefer trading down. They’d accumulate more picks, plus they’d save money to avoid paying a top-tier first-rounder. Lynch didn’t paint an optimistic picture of that happening.
“I feel like there’s a lot of people trying to go that way, probably because what I talked about, the quality of starters that run deep into this draft,” Lynch said, “and generally when everyone wants to do the same thing, there’s not as much opportunity.”
Trade the pick for a proven player or chance it on a player busting? (@_r2g_)
Proven players come with a retail price tag. This year’s 49ers favor a Costco run to buy bargains in bulk.
Two questions. Are they still working on an extension George Kittle? If they hold all 11 picks and keep all 11 picks how many do they reasonably expect to make the team? (@lowbridge)
Lynch spoke Tuesday on Kittle’s would-be third contract: “We’ve had good communication, good talks, and we’ll see where that goes.” I suspect we’ll see this go on through the summer, before he breaks the $20 million-per-year barrier on Labor Day.
As for an 11-pick warchest, I predict they’ll trade some picks to move up the three-day draft board, finish with a nine-man class, and seven rookie defenders make the 53-man roster.
Are we really getting Travis Hunter? (@steppin4oem3)
The 49ers once had a Kendall Hunter. But Travis? Hunter?
You know, in the NFL’s grand scheme of things, the 49ers are now considered the hunter instead of the perennially hunted title contender. “I like that mentality we have and I like the narrative going around,” Christian McCaffrey said. “That’s the kind of stuff you can prove them right or prove them wrong. We have a committed team and a team that’s ready to jell together and realize it’s going to take all of us. That’s how it should be, showing up. I’m excited.”