Scotland’s Forwards – where next on the road to RWC 2023?

As with some of the Scotland backs, at the 2019 World Cup our team were caught in the midst of a transition phase when it came to the back row.

The John Barclay, Hamish Watson and Ryan Wilson unit had been outstanding at the breakdown through the early part of the Townsend era. But by the end of the opening World Cup fixture against Ireland, Watson was being booked on a plane home after an injury and Barclay and Wilson only started again versus Russia. That campaign was a disaster.

The coaches are likely to leave no stone unturned over the next 12 months in order to ensure they head into 2023 with the forward units that will give them the best possible chance of toppling one or both of Ireland and South Africa in order to get out of the group. Given each of those nation’s strengths, the required performances will almost certainly have to be built on a platform provided by the Scottish pack.

Front row

Where Scotland stand:

1. Rory Sutherland
31 years and 0 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 72% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

2. George Turner
30 years and 11 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 39% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

3. Zander Fagerson
27 years and 7 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 89% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

What could happen in the next 20 months:

While Rory Sutherland is the incumbent in the number 1 shirt he will be under massive pressure from the freshly qualified Pierre Schoeman – the man who consistently got the nod to start during the period when both props were at Edinburgh. It might seem odd to potentially be sidelining the first Scot to play loosehead for a Lions’ Test team for 20 years but Schoeman can match Sutherland at the set piece while providing a much higher work rate around the park.

Until the start of the recent Six Nations, Fraser Brown and Stuart McInally had dominated game time in the number 2 shirt during the Townsend era, starting 33 out of 37 matches between Autumn 2017 and Autumn 2020. Injuries to that duo have allowed the likes of George Turner and David Cherry to press their case. Given that Brown and McInally will be 34 and 33 respectively by the time the next World Cup comes round it’s no bad thing that options have come to the fore already. It looks to be Turner’s jersey to lose right now, but a couple of seasons with Ewan Ashman playing regular first team rugby could see the Sale Sharks’ man right in the conversation to start after a starry first cap during the autumn

Of all the positions in the Scotland side the man with the least pressure on him is Zander Fagerson. While Simon Berghan may provide solid cover the drop off from the first choice starter is arguably larger at tighthead than anywhere else. Converting Oli Kebble across from the loosehead (even if only on a part-time basis) seems to be a nod towards closing this gap. As things stand though, given the generally long development time for props, this is a tricky area for Scotland to cover and develop.

Locks

Where Scotland stand:

4. Scott Cummings
26 years and 10 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 72% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

5. Jonny Gray
29 years and 5 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 50% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

What could happen in the next 20 months:

While there are no Eben Etzebeth-type monsters plying their trade in Scottish rugby, Gregor Townsend has a pretty deep pool of grafting second rows to pick from. The neverending tackle count and rucks hit of someone like Jonny Gray are pretty essential if the dark blues are looking to continue with the twin opensides and breakdown pressure approach in the back row.

It’s hard to see past the two players mentioned above for the starting berths in France. Where things become interesting is when it comes to who provides depth and takes the bench / backup role. Toony was always very keen on Ben Toolis, who has unarguably been the best lineout operator available in this era. The Edinburgh lock’s move to Japan at the end of this season probably puts the kibosh on him being a contender for Scotland selection in future though. Meanwhile Sam Skinner moving back to the capital club as a replacement for Toolis puts him right back in the national spotlight.

There are some next gen players coming through who might provide some extra aggression off the bench. Callum Hunter-Hill looked the part as the most likely nasty bugger to break through from age grade level but his falling out at Edinburgh and limited game time at Saracens have checked his progress. That might put the likes of Alex Craig (junior partner to Hunter-Hill at grade level) and Marshall Sykes in the box seat. Both players have the advantage that they can slot in as a heavyweight blindside flanker if a change is needed in the back row.

Back row

Where Scotland stand:

6. Jamie Ritchie
27 years and 0 months at start of RWC 2023
Has started 94% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

7. Hamish Watson
31 years and 10 months at start of RWC 2023
Has started 89% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

8. Matt Fagerson
25 years and 1 month at start of RWC 2023
Has started 56% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup

What could happen in the next 20 months:

Is the biggest question how to manage Hamish Watson through to the World Cup? Or is it whether the Mish’s pairing with Ritchie is the right one to combat the Irish and South African back rows? If selection is simply a case of picking the two best flankers then Ritchie and Watson are among the first names on the teamsheets. If a different blend is required to counter the relentless physicality of Scotland’s World Cup opponents then some alternative options need to be tested – ideally in high level fixtures.

While a direct backup openside such as Rory Darge will need to be blooded, the likes of Josh Bayliss or Luke Crosbie would alter the picture in the back row. For a really drastic change, Toony might consider a hybrid lock at 6 (as England, Ireland and South Africa have employed at various times). The question would be who has the dynamism to fill that role? Glasgow have experimented with Scott Cummings at blindside but only in friendly matches. If this was to be a realistic option then the locks mentioned above – Skinner, Craig and Sykes – would seem the most likely candidates to be tried out.

It would be rare indeed to get a fully formed international this late in an RWC cycle but barnstorming Glasgow number 8, Jack Dempsey will be eligible to play for the national side in time for next year’s Autumn Tests under new regulations (and subject to approval). The former Waratah played for Australia at the World Cup in Japan but at the tournament in France could be able to compete for a Scotland jersey with his clubmate Matt Fagerson (who should be hitting his peak in two years’ time).

Key players for the three Test series against Argentina in the summer

Ewan Ashman;
Alex Craig;
Marshall Sykes;
Rory Darge;
Josh Bayliss.

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