Habs Stats: The First 30 games
Another five games, another 0.600 points percentage rate. This is great news during a brutal stretch of 13 games in 23 days. Yet, this sequence still has a sour taste. The 6-1 beatdown against Tampa Bay effectively highlighted all the recurring issues the team has had throughout the season, in one single game. Defensive breakdowns were common, both goaltenders underperformed, and early goals against in all three periods of the game killed any momentum that remained.
The stats from the last five games are not bad at all. In fact, there are improvements that merit mention. Shots For are increasing, while Faceoffs, power play, and the penalty kill are all above average. The 13 Goals For in five games was the second-lowest this year despite the average Shot For count being the highest at 29. That explains a low PDO For, suggesting a return to average can be expected.
Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge have also improved in many aspects. They have moved up the ranks considerably in offensive zone time and mid-range shots (from 24th and 29th after 25 games, respectively). Although they do still have a high shooting percentage of 12.4%, they have dropped to second in the league behind Dallas.
Despite the challenges and issues with the team recently causing them to drop in the standings, they are still doing much better than last year so far. They are 10 points ahead with the same number of games. Last year at this time, Cayden Primeau was having a hard time stopping the puck for the Habs and was two weeks away from being sent back to Laval after going through waivers. The team’s average save percentage with the Primeau-Montembeault duo compared to the Dobes-Montembeault duo went from 0.881 to 0.902, jump-starting the team’s comeback to a playoff berth in the last game of the season.
It would be difficult to find anyone before the current season that would have predicted another major goalie crisis in Montreal, yet here we are in December with a team save percentage of 0.870 from Dobes and Montembeault. This time though, it seems that both goaltenders are having consistency issues. Compared to last year, their Goal Save Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAE/60) went from 0.617 to 0.006 for Dobes and 0.418 to -0.469 for Montembeault. Things got a little better for Montembeault in the last 10 games with his GSAE/60 at 0.000 but Dobes’ GSAE/60 dropped to -0.720 in his last 10 games.
The recall of Jacob Fowler for the Pittsburgh game on December 11th was surely not in the plans for Kent Hughes. Certainly, he would have preferred to call him up to either replace an injured goalie or after playoff teams are decided at the end of the season. Thankfully, Fowler’s performance was beyond expectations. His stats are elite level with 3.208 GSAE/60, the highest in the league. This is just one game, though. We only need to remember Dobes’ first game (4-0 shutout vs Florida) last year to realize that consistency is very difficult to achieve for rookies, especially for goalies. That said, Dobes and Fowler have very different styles. The latter is much more technical, poised, and moves very little in his crease. This style is much more prone to consistency than what Dobes has shown.
Hughes and St-Louis probably have a lot more questions than answers at this point. Is Fowler able to maintain this level of play? Should Dobes be sent back to Laval (no waivers needed) to find his game? Can Montembeault act as the backup until he finds his game? Whatever is the case, either Montembeault or Dobes needs to perform at last year’s level.
Besides goaltending, the team is performing at a level to make the playoffs. With average goaltending, the Habs would undoubtedly have a few more points in the standings. With how tight the Atlantic Division is, this would put them well within the top three teams. The silver lining is that the fans have yet another talented rookie prospect to follow his progression in Montreal.