Fantasy Focus: Patrik Laine
Through the first few articles in our annual series, we’ve covered some of Montreal’s safer players to project. It’s time to flip the script and look at one of the biggest wild cards for the upcoming season, Patrik Laine.
2024-25
While many knew there were some risks when the Habs acquired the final two seasons of Laine’s contract in a late-summer trade with Columbus, most felt the gamble was worth it. Beyond keeping the Habs in LTIR for another season (leading to a bonus carryover penalty of more than $1.75 million), the return (Jordan Harris) wasn’t a significant loss and if it didn’t work out, they at least added a second-round pick for their efforts. But there was some optimism heading into training camp.
That optimism lasted not much longer than the first paragraph of this article, however. Laine suffered a knee injury in a preseason game against Toronto. At first, it seemed like it was going to be an ACL tear which would have carried a much longer recovery time. But he eventually found a specialist who suggested rehab could do the trick and it only kept him out for about two-and-a-half months.
When he returned, he started with a bang. Over his first 18 games, Laine scored a dozen goals with a whopping ten of those coming on the power play. That put him among the league leaders at the time despite the fact that he didn’t start his season until December. Now, a 24.5% shooting percentage wasn’t going to be sustainable and eventually, teams caught on that it might not be a bad idea to actually try to cover him from his spot at the left faceoff dot that he likes to shoot from.
As the adjustments were made, Laine’s production started to drop over the next couple of months and as that happened, so did his ice time, something he found a way to sneak in a public complaint about at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Then, in April, as the Habs were fighting for a playoff spot, his production dropped to a single goal in nine regular season games while averaging only a little over 13 minutes a night. That carried over to the first two games of the playoffs before he was shut down with a broken finger, ending the year on a down note.
Regular Season Stats: 52 GP, 20-13-33, -14, 14 PIMS, 15 PPG, 5 GWG, 116 shots, 14:18 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 2 GP, 0-1-1, -2, 2 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 6 shots, 11:42 ATOI
5-Year Averages
GP: 50
Goals: 18
Assists: 19
Points: 37
+/-: -17
PIMS: 19
PPG: 7
GWG: 3
Shots: 126
2025-26 Role
There are some players whose roles are pretty secure heading into the season. While there might be some tinkering done here and there, they know what type of ice time they’ll be getting. Laine is most definitely not one of those players. Frankly, his role might be the least predictable of anyone on the Habs this coming season.
While Laine was a big power play weapon last season, his five-on-five play often left a lot to be desired. He was used on a few different lines and both wings but nothing could really stick for any extended period of time. Then, as his confidence faded, his play weakened and he went lower on the depth chart. Odds being odds and Laine’s history being what it is, that’s probably going to happen again.
To start the season, I think Montreal will try to have him on the second line. That will get his ice time more to what he’s used to (and where he doesn’t complain) to try to get him starting strong and get some confidence going. That’s also where Ivan Demidov will likely start and the two of them seem to be working on developing some chemistry over the summer so giving them a chance to play together makes sense. Laine can definitely have success in that role although it wouldn’t shock me if Martin St. Louis is a little quicker with the trigger on changing things there if he struggles. Assuming Jake Evans takes over in Christian Dvorak’s role, Laine’s other location if he’s moved down is likely to be the fourth line. I suspect he’ll see time in both spots.
Even on the power play, Laine’s role probably isn’t secure. On the one hand, when you’re among the power play goal leaders, your spot on the number one unit should be secure. On the other hand, he’s a stationary player on a man advantage group that St. Louis has talked about being less predictable. We saw a brief example of that in the final few playoff games. Accordingly, I think it’s quite possible that they put Laine on a more traditional second unit where he can be the triggerman, getting feeds from Noah Dobson and then move him up when injuries arise to the top wave. Again, there’s going to be some variance in his role.
Projected Stats
There are a lot of ifs when it comes to Laine. If he’s healthy and engaged, he has legitimate 60-plus-point upside and if he can do that from the second line, Montreal’s long-standing need for a quality second line should be somewhat addressed which would be a big boost for their playoff hopes. He has that type of upside.
But history has shown that expecting that to happen would be foolhardy. Laine hasn’t made it through a season with some sort of significant issue since before COVID. Between that and the fact he’s coming back from a knee injury that some doctors felt needed surgery, I don’t think he can be trusted to make it through a full season unscathed.
From a fantasy perspective, he’s especially appealing for leagues that put an extra emphasis on goals, power play points, and shots although a drop in shooting percentage is likely after coming in at over 17% last season. Having dual wing eligibility helps as well. But you’re not going to get much in the way of physicality despite his size and again, the likelihood of injury and more of a volatile role are reasons to lower him in your rankings as well.
Depending on the type of league you’re in, Laine profiles as a mid-to-late-round pick with a bit more volatility in head-to-head pools where he might win you a week and then do next to nothing for the next few. But with all that said, he’s a fascinating wild card pick this season.
GP: 66
Goals: 24
Assists: 22
Points: 46
+/-: -10
PIMS: 36
PPG: 9
GWG: 4
Shots: 148