Writers Weigh In: Discussing the Dobson Deal

The Habs made a big splash at the draft, just not in terms of actually drafting players.  Instead, they swung the biggest trade, acquiring Noah Dobson from the Islanders.  Our writers offer up their thoughts on the swap.

Dobson was acquired for Emil Heineman plus the 16th and 17th picks this year.  He was signed to an eight-year, $76 million contract before the trade.

Terry Costaris: Quality right defenders are super hard to find. Montreal has now landed one. Whenever you get a player of Noah Dobson’s calibre, you should jump for joy. I sure am!

He’s a big, skilled, mobile, right-shooting, all-star-calibre defenceman who’s just 25 years old! He could be an anchor for the Montreal Canadiens for the next eight years – his prime years. And they got him on a discount (in terms of both salary and the asking price) because the Islanders were forced to trade him.

Now to obtain such a unicorn, you have to give up something: two first-rounders and above all, Heineman – who I adore. While one can argue that this was, relatively speaking, a “discount” deal, it was nonetheless still a hefty but fair market value price.

Heineman is this draft’s Alexander Romanov, whom I also adored. If Montreal keeps trading players like Romanov and Heineman to the New York Islanders, they may just become my second favourite team.

On the grand scheme of things, the Canadiens, at least on paper, is now a better team. Dobson, so long as he continues to be healthy, adds way more to the Habs’ defence than retired David Savard. So, the Habs are better today than they were pre draft night.

Dobson also now allows both right-shooting defenders, David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux, more runway in their development. While both players want to make it into the NHL ASAP, the two still need further cooking in the AHL.

The Canadiens now have an indisputably legitimate defence. Dobson will help ease the burdens placed on Montreal’s top four which should lead to an overall improvement for the defence and should theoretically reduce the odds of fatigue-related injuries. Further, by making Montreal’s defence more offensively potent, there should also be a cascading effect on the team’s offence. We should also keep in mind that Montreal’s young defencemen will all be one year older and thus, likely better.

And I would be remiss not to mention that Noah Dobson agreeing to an eight-year deal on a discounted salary is a very good sign that other players, via trade or free agency, would now consider Montreal as a desirable destination to play in. This is yet another positive cascading effect.

Finally, here’s a special shoutout to Patrick Roy for being Patrick Roy. Without you, this 30% off scratch-and-save discount deal would never have happened. We Hab fans continue to owe you our debt of gratitude!

Allan Katz: The acquisition of Dobson is obviously a solid development for the Habs. The only downside is that Dobson is a big defenceman who plays smaller than his size with loads of skill, but not tons of grit. I find the most brilliant part of the trade is that Montreal is left with enough trade power to acquire the forwards needed to complete the rebuild. We can safely say the defensive talent needed for a Stanley Cup run is in place. Dobson will help the offense immensely especially because his five-on-five numbers are elite, but the talent void for the second line is shockingly thin.

In place is 33% of the line but the centre and another winger are nowhere to be seen. Yes, they have young bodies such as Joshua Roy and Oliver Kapanen but they have not grabbed their opportunities like we hope they will one day. Even Michael Hage is two to three years away from proving his projected worth. So, the Habs need forward talent and the Dobson trade makes the path to that talent clear enough to see. The trade was exciting, and the Habs path to the cup is clearer. What more could we reasonably expect? Finally, one word: bravo.

Brian La Rose: This is one of those moves where it’s probably not exactly the right time for it to be made but you can’t always get the right player at the right time.  With the Habs squeaking into the playoffs this season, it’s fair to say the rebuild isn’t over and that it’s not time for them to become contenders.  But Dobson was available now, not next year so they needed to strike now and made a solid trade.

The 16th and 17th picks would likely have yielded good secondary pieces (there were some quality players still on the board at that time) and Heineman is a capable bottom-six forward.  But Dobson isn’t a secondary piece, he’s a core one.  Usually, it’s hard to combine some lesser assets and get someone who’s projecting to be a long-term cornerstone.  It’s not like this is a short-term addition; they’re getting Dobson, a premium player at a premium position, for eight years.

There’s some sticker shock on the contract but with a big jump in the cap and two more coming, it was going to be expensive to get something done.  As the cap goes up, it should hold up well enough although it won’t be a bargain at any point either.

There is some risk in that Dobson is coming off a down year and if he plays at that level moving forward, it could be trouble.  But his previous three seasons were much better so there’s reason to think that he can bounce back.  Expectations won’t be quite as high as he won’t have to do as much of the heavy workload in terms of puck-carrying (Hutson will help in that regard obviously) or log number one minutes every night which might help cut down on some of the errors he has been prone to make.

This is a move that pushes the Habs more toward trying to win now but they’re still not at the point where it’s playoffs or bust next season.  But regardless of that, they’ve landed a key piece at a position that’s especially hard to fill and did so for a trade return that they could afford without much issue.  Early or not, that’s a solid trade for the Canadiens.

Peter Longo: With a first-round pick only having a 20-30% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL, trading multiple draft picks and a bottom-six forward to acquire a proven top-four defender is a no-brainer.  Along with Guhle and Hutson, the Habs now have three of four top defencemen in place for the foreseeable future.  And I like the change in strategy from management from a draft-and-develop over many, many years (which may never be successful) to be more aggressive and acquire established players to help the team win today.

Where I do have concerns is the size of the contract combined with the inconsistent play of Dobson. It’s unlikely Dobson can ever play up to this $9.5M contract value as it’s amongst the highest in the league and Dobson will never be that in terms of his play. Clearly, the Islanders made him available so there’s a bit of a disconnect between his play and salary demand. I can only hope that a change in scenery and different coaches can help Dobson elevate his level of play and consistency. Otherwise, Hughes may have just caused himself future problems with his cap management strategy.

Perhaps the biggest part I’m excited for is the next set of moves. The team is desperate for a top-six centre. Acquiring Dobson makes Matheson available and he should be of interest to teams given his recent performance and modest cap hit. Perhaps it even makes one of Reinbacher or more likely Mailloux available as well if needed.

Overall, I like the trade. I like management’s change in strategy to be more aggressive and win now, and I am anxious to see the next moves Hughes can make to further improve the team. I don’t like the overpayment of the contract but if the cap continues to increase, this may be moot.

Norm Szcyrek: I was on vacation in the UK when I heard the news about the Dobson trade, so I can say I was gobsmacked! The past few days, there were rumours of this trade, but there’s always a rumour mill going on in Montreal and many of them go nowhere.

Montreal gets a bona fide first-pairing mobile defenceman who shoots right which fills a big void. Noah scored 70 points two seasons ago. His offence dropped last season but his entire team declined drastically too. His defensive numbers over the past few seasons have been above average. His presence should give the Habs two offensive presences on their top two pairings since he likely won’t be paired with LD Hutson. What Montreal gave up was very acceptable.

What will be the most important adjustment will be on the first wave on the power play. Dobson is excellent in this role and so is Hutson. Unless the coach puts them both on the first power play, someone may suffer a points decline with the man advantage.

David Woodward: There is no question that the Dobson trade addresses a huge hole in the Habs’ lineup and it does improve the team materially in the short to medium term.  Dobson is one of the best young offensive defencemen in the league and, as a right-handed shot, fills a glaring need in the Canadiens’ roster.  While his reputation betrays some defensive shortcomings, the underlying metrics refute this perception to some extent and his offensive prowess is clear.  Dobson has been a power play quarterback and has put up some impressive numbers on an Islanders team that struggles to score goals.

It is unusual for a young player of this quality to become available at the time he is entering his prime.  While Dobson was in the midst of contract negotiations with the Islanders, reports suggest Hab fans can, in part, thank his difficult relationship with Patrick Roy for this acquisition.

Of course, to acquire a player of this calibre (and at this age), one has to give a lot and the Canadiens did so.  For this reason, this pundit is a little less excited than some about the trade.  The Habs dealt Heineman, a former second-round pick, who established himself as a solid fourth-line winger in the bottom six of the lineup.  Before being hit by a car in Utah, as a rookie, Heineman was fifth on the team for points per 60 minutes of play 5×5, with minimal ice time and in a fourth-line role.  He is also a physical winger, something the Canadiens need more of.  Is he replaceable?   Absolutely, but Heineman is a valuable piece.

In addition, by dealing the 16th and 17th picks in the draft, they traded any two of Kashawn Aitcheson, Viktor Eklund, Justin Carbonneau, etc.  There are reports out of Montreal indicating they intended to select Alexander Zharovsky with one of those picks (who they traded up for and selected at pick 34).  Nonetheless, this is a pretty nice haul for the Islanders.

Dobson’s contract will also eat up a lot of cap space.  He is probably worth it.  However, with Hutson coming out of his entry-level deal after the upcoming season, Guhle’s $5.55M AAV kicking in this year and Matheson on an expiring deal, one does not need a CPA to figure out that this will soon become a very expensive back end.

The timing of this type of move also raises questions.  The Canadiens overachieved this past season and snuck into the postseason…but they are not close to contending yet.  If the objective is to build a team that has the ability to compete for the Stanley Cup consistently over a long period of time, will this type of move further that long-term goal?  Normally, this type of move is made when teams are closer to contention.

That said, this scribbler can certainly understand why Hughes made the deal.  A player of this calibre set to enter his prime is rarely available.  And he fills a huge void for the Canadiens.  That type of opportunity does not come along every offseason.

Of course, this is unlikely to be Hughes’s last move.  With Dobson’s arrival, something has to give on the back end.  This pundit expects that Matheson will be moved either prior to the 2025-26 season or certainly no later than the trade deadline.  Absent a Tavares-like hometown discount, the Habs will be unable to afford a new contract for Matheson as Hutson is in line for a Dobsonian payday.  With the depth the Canadiens have on the left side, look for Hughes to move Matheson as part of a package for a second-line centre, the other obvious position that must be addressed over the summer.

On balance, the Dobson deal improves the team materially over the next few seasons but, down the road, the trade may not be the home run that many people seem to think it may be.