Fantasy Focus: Juraj Slafkovsky
Last season was a tale of two halves for Juraj Slafkovsky, who saved his best for last. Will he be able to carry that performance over this coming season?
2023-24
After an inconsistent rookie season that ended early due to injury, it’s fair to say that expectations weren’t particularly high heading into the season. That said, by the time the calendar turned to November, Slafkovsky had just two goals and five assists in 23 games. Basically, he was somehow still producing below expectations, leaving some to wonder if he’d be better suited by spending some time in Laval.
Then December came around and he got a little better with two goals and four assists in 13 games. Those numbers don’t jump off the chart but it was in that month that he was moved onto the top line. Slafkovsky didn’t light it up right away but did enough for the experiment to continue.
Keeping him alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield proved to be the right decision. Between January and February, he potted 18 points in 24 games which is more than he had in the first three months of the season combined. That was a big step in the right direction. Then in the final six weeks, the output went up again, this time to 19 points in 22 contests. Granted, with nothing to play for (other than a late push for 20 goals and a $250,000 bonus), you don’t want to draw many conclusions but the fact he finished strong can’t hurt.
One of the takeaways from the season for me was that he was able to stay healthy and play all 82 games despite his playing time jumping to more than 19 minutes a night in the second half of the season. That’s a big hurdle for a lot of young players to clear early in their career – especially those not coming from the CHL – so seeing Slafkovsky power through despite bigger playing time was particularly nice to see.
Stats: 82 GP, 20-30-50, -19, 55 PIMS, 6 PPG, 2 GWG, 152 shots, 17:56 ATOI
Normally, this is where we’d look at the averages but with the sample size only being two years (and the first season being a 10-point showing in 39 games), there’s nothing that can be relevantly gleaned from that so let’s skip that section and move on.
2024-25 Role
There’s a temptation to say that Slafkovsky should simply stay with Caufield and Suzuki based on the way things went in the second half of last season. Don’t overthink it and leave well enough alone. I think it’s a logical argument and heading into training camp, I feel Martin St. Louis will go with that approach and keep that top line intact.
While we’d all like to see the three of them pick up where they left off and produce like a legitimate top line, that’s probably not going to happen. Simply odds being odds, between them all being young players who will have ups and downs and the all-too-real possibility of injuries, the trio isn’t staying intact for all 82 games.
Back in training camp last year, it looked like Slafkovsky and Kirby Dach were showing some early signs of chemistry as a second line with some size and offensive upside. At some point, I suspect they’ll go back to that when it comes time to shape things up. But even in that situation, he’s a safe bet to play in the top six after the eight-year, $7.6M per season extension that the Habs gave Slafkovsky this summer.
When it comes to special teams, Slafkovsky was a fixture on the top power play in the second half of last season. I think he’s likely to stay there with Patrik Laine perhaps going to the second unit but if they want to experiment with Slafkovsky being the focal point of a power play unit, it’s possible he moves down at some point. As for the penalty kill, that’s unlikely to be on the horizon for him in the near future if at all.
Projected Stats
In a perfect world, Slafkovsky maintains (or improves upon) his second-half production, giving him a shot at pushing for around 75 points. However, things are rarely that simple and output isn’t generally that consistent, especially for young players. Even GM Kent Hughes has previously acknowledged there are still going to be ups and downs in Slafkovsky’s development and performance. It’s not a case of things are only going to go up from here.
And that’s what makes Slafkovsky a tempting but risky proposition when it comes to fantasy hockey. If it’s the best-case scenario and he produces like a top liner, he’s the type of pick that could win your pool as you’ll have gotten a high-end return on an ADP that’s likely to fall somewhere in the low-100’s. But if he holds at a point total around what he had last season or things go sideways, it’s going to be a costly overdraft.
I’m inclined to forecast an uptick in production but not the big jump like his second-half output might suggest. I’m not sure that he’s going to be that productive over a full season this early in his career. But a push past the 60-point mark is doable and that, coupled with Montreal’s generous counting of hits, makes Slafkovsky a very viable power forward in all formats.
GP: 78
Goals: 26
Assists: 37
Points: 63
+/-: -16
PIMS: 64
PPG: 7
GWG: 3
Shots: 188