Fantasy Focus: Samuel Montembeault

For the first time in his career, Samuel Montembeault will enter the season as Montreal’s undisputed number one goaltender.  What should be expected from him in 2024-25?

2023-24

Early on, playing time was hard to come by for any goalie, not just Montembeault.  With the Habs carrying three goalies for what was expected to be a short period of time, he and Jake Allen were getting even playing time while Cayden Primeau further cut into that.  As a result, when December came around, Montembeault had made only nine starts.

Unfortunately for him (and the other two goalies for that matter), that idea of carrying three goalies for a short period of time turned into a much longer period.  That said, Montembeault started to see a bigger share of the workload, getting into 13 contests in December and January, nearly as many as Allen and Primeau combined.  A similar pattern was in place in February as well, a signal that regardless of whether or not they were carrying three goalies all season, Montembeault was going to be the priority of the three for playing time and get around half the starts.

Eventually, as you know, Allen was traded to New Jersey in March, freeing up a bigger share for both remaining netminders.  What was particularly interesting is that Montembeault’s workload didn’t really increase that much; from March to the end of the season, he only played in two more games than Primeau (whose numbers in that stretch were a fair bit better).

While that doesn’t necessarily paint a pretty picture, the Habs committed a three-year, $9.45 million extension to him while giving him a new career-high in starts and games played despite carrying three goalies for three-quarters of the season.  But they opted for a relatively steady approach along the way in terms of how he was deployed, something that likely helped him towards the end of the season.  Notably, he improved his GAA and SV% to his best rates in his three seasons with Montreal despite playing behind a blueline that dealt with its fair share of struggles.

Stats: 41 GP, 16-15-9 record, 0 SO, 3.14 GAA, .903 SV%

3 Year Averages

(With Montembeault only being a full-time NHL player for the three seasons he played in Montreal, we’ll only look at those for the basis of comparison.)

GP: 40
W: 13
L: 17
OTL: 6
SO: 0
GAA: 3.38
SV%: .898

2024-25 Role

In his first two seasons with the Habs, there was some uncertainty as to Montembeault’s role.  When he was first acquired, it was only supposed to be as a short-term replacement for Carey Price (who wound up playing just five games and hasn’t played since) so he became a platoon goalie.  Then, it was what side of the platoon he’d be on with Allen in his second season.  Even last year, the contract extension meant he was part of the plans but how often they’d use him relative to the other two was in question.

At least part of the ambiguity is gone now.  For the first time in his career, Montembeault will go into training camp as the undisputed number one goaltender.  While Primeau should see more action as well, Montembeault will get the majority of the starts.

How big a majority that will be is what remains uncertain.  With 41 games being the high watermark for games played, how much beyond that will they want to go?  Assuming both goalies are healthy, is the target split 45 to 37 for Montembeault?  50 to 32?  55 to 27?  Don’t forget, it’s a contract year for Primeau so they need to evaluate if he’s in the plans for at least the short-term future so they’re going to need to give him a reasonably strong workload as well.

Projected Stats

Out of those three options, I think the actual is going to fall somewhere between the first two.  Adding 15 or more starts seems like a reach and if they tried that, I wouldn’t be shocked if he struggled down the stretch again.  Remember, it’s not as if it’s easy playing behind Montreal’s defence, a group that struggled last season and got rid of two players who at times were among their better defenders (though more so in 2022-23 than 2023-24).  It’s going to be a higher workload than most goalies each game so that has to be accounted for as well which is why I think the split will be closer than I think some expect.

From a fantasy perspective, being a true starter (or strong side of a platoon depending on the split), Montembeault becomes a bit more valuable, especially in deeper leagues where most goalies are snapped up.  Instead of being in the 30-35 range among netminders, he should go somewhere in the mid-20s.

What works against Montembeault is that he’s not likely to have a big increase in wins unless Montreal winds up being one of the bigger surprises in the NHL this season and lands in the thick of a playoff race.  At this point of the summer, it’d be risky from a roster-building perspective to project that happening.

He’ll pile up more saves than most given Montreal’s back end which is notable in head-to-head leagues that have total saves as a category but as a result of that leaky defence, he’s probably going to have a GAA in the low-threes again and a save percentage in the low .900 range.  Even with incremental improvement (as he has had over the last two seasons), those numbers aren’t going to put him into the top 20.  He’s more valuable now than a year ago in most leagues but even with him being the top option now, Montembeault isn’t going to be a top option on a fantasy team.

GP: 49
W: 20
L: 21
OTL: 8
SO: 1
GAA: 3.10
SV%: .905