Sleepwalking to Safety or Disaster? Leeds United's Nervy Run-In
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The points are trickling in but the goals aren't and with seven games to go, Daniel Farke's Leeds United face a question that gets harder to ignore with every goalless stalemate: are they drifting to safety, or drifting towards disaster?
A second successive 0-0, this time at home to Brentford on Saturday evening, means Leeds have now gone four consecutive league games without scoring. For a side with the crowd behind them, under the Elland Road lights, it was a frustrating non-event. The point keeps Leeds four clear of the drop zone, but it does precious little to calm the nerves of a fanbase that had hoped for something more decisive. And critically, Leeds have not won a single league game since they beat Forest back in early February.
The wider picture moved in Leeds' favour this weekend, at least. West Ham's 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa was welcome news, and Forest's emphatic 3-0 dismantling of Spurs sent genuine shockwaves through the relegation conversation. Leeds actually find themselves in a marginally more comfortable position than they did seven days ago, but the manner of the football being served up makes it very difficult to feel good about it.
Leeds sit 15th with 33 points, four clear of the drop. Below them, Nottingham Forest have climbed above Spurs into 16th on 32 points. Spurs, now collapsed to 17th on 30 points, seemingly in freefall with just three points from their last ten games telling its own grim story. West Ham taking that final relegation spot in 18th on 29 points, still the most likely candidates for the drop and given a timely reminder this weekend that their recent good form is no guarantee of safety. Opta now give West Ham a 58.22% chance of relegation, Spurs 26.51%, Forest 8.46% and Leeds 6.93%. Reassuring numbers for Leeds, but the closeness between everyone is a reminder that this is far from over.
There is a version of this story where Farke's conservative approach is pragmatic genius. Two clean sheets in a row are not nothing, and grinding out results whilst the chaos below does the heavy lifting has its own logic. But a side that cannot score cannot win, and a side that cannot win cannot pull clear. Four games without a goal is not a tactical masterclass. It is a crisis of attacking intent that, if it continues, will drag Leeds back into the very danger they are trying to escape.
The root of the problem is painfully visible to anyone who has watched Leeds in recent weeks. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, a striker who has proven throughout his career that he thrives on service, has now gone six matches without a goal. That in itself is not a disaster, all strikers have dry spells, but the manner of his isolation is the real concern. Calvert-Lewin is a penalty box striker, a header of the ball, a finisher who needs deliveries into the danger areas to do his best work. He is getting almost none of that. With no genuine wide players to stretch play and deliver the kind of crosses he feeds on, he is spending too much of his time chasing lost causes and holding up the ball in isolation, unsupported or uninvolved.
Lukas Nmecha has done little to ease that burden. Farke has him playing neither as a true second striker or a winger, instead occupying a curious no man's land that suits nobody, least of all the centre-forward who needs runners and service around him. It is a combination that looks increasingly like a tactical misfit, and Farke will need to find an answer quickly. Then there is Brenden Aaronson, who showed flashes of quality earlier in the season but is currently enduring some of his worst form of the season. The American is creating very little, offering minimal threat, giving the ball away and failing to provide the spark that might unlock stubborn defensive blocks. For a team that relies on energy and pressing from its attacking players, Aaronson's dip in form has left Leeds looking toothless in the final third.
The fixture list does Leeds no immediate favours either. First up is a trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, and this is not the stumbling, uncertain Amorim team of earlier in the season. Michael Carrick’s side arrive at this fixture with momentum and confidence restored. A Leeds side that has forgotten how to score travelling to a resurgent Old Trafford is not a fixture that inspires confidence, and a defeat there could prove deeply damaging should Leeds lose and West Ham take the points on offer against bottom club Wolves. The gap between the two clubs could shrink to just one point, with six games still to play the sleepwalk suddenly becomes a stumble into serious trouble.
After the trip across the Pennines, the fixture list does begin to look kinder. Wolves and Burnley are both struggling sides, and those back-to-back home games look like genuine opportunities to rediscover some attacking rhythm and put points on the board. Bournemouth away in between will be no pushover, but they have little left to play for. The Spurs game is one Leeds should be targeting too, given how broken that team look. Brighton, as ever, will pass the ball beautifully and create problems, but they are a side without the cutting edge to punish too severely. It is a run that, on paper, should yield enough points to secure survival comfortably but only if Leeds can find their scoring boots again.
The final game of the season is the one everybody wants to forget about. Leeds travel to the London Stadium to face West Ham, and the nightmare scenario is arriving there with survival still riding on the result. A raucous, hostile crowd, West Ham fighting for their Premier League lives, 90 minutes of pure nerve-shredding tension. It’s the kind of occasion that could go either way, and nobody of a Leeds persuasion wants to be in that position. The goal between now and then is simple: make that game irrelevant. Win two or three of the games before it, reach 40 points with a game or two to spare, and let the final day drama belong to someone else.
But to win games, Leeds need to score goals. And to score goals, Farke needs to find a way to get the best out of Calvert-Lewin, which means width, delivery and support that has been conspicuously absent. The return of Okafor could help but you feel like Gnonto and James have much more to offer during the run in, if only Farke would turn to them earlier. The draws are keeping Leeds afloat, but the nerves are not settling. The players are there. The crowd is there. The fixtures, for the most part, are there. What is missing is the football and time, with seven games remaining, is beginning to run out.
A second successive 0-0, this time at home to Brentford on Saturday evening, means Leeds have now gone four consecutive league games without scoring. For a side with the crowd behind them, under the Elland Road lights, it was a frustrating non-event. The point keeps Leeds four clear of the drop zone, but it does precious little to calm the nerves of a fanbase that had hoped for something more decisive. And critically, Leeds have not won a single league game since they beat Forest back in early February.
The wider picture moved in Leeds' favour this weekend, at least. West Ham's 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa was welcome news, and Forest's emphatic 3-0 dismantling of Spurs sent genuine shockwaves through the relegation conversation. Leeds actually find themselves in a marginally more comfortable position than they did seven days ago, but the manner of the football being served up makes it very difficult to feel good about it.
Leeds sit 15th with 33 points, four clear of the drop. Below them, Nottingham Forest have climbed above Spurs into 16th on 32 points. Spurs, now collapsed to 17th on 30 points, seemingly in freefall with just three points from their last ten games telling its own grim story. West Ham taking that final relegation spot in 18th on 29 points, still the most likely candidates for the drop and given a timely reminder this weekend that their recent good form is no guarantee of safety. Opta now give West Ham a 58.22% chance of relegation, Spurs 26.51%, Forest 8.46% and Leeds 6.93%. Reassuring numbers for Leeds, but the closeness between everyone is a reminder that this is far from over.
There is a version of this story where Farke's conservative approach is pragmatic genius. Two clean sheets in a row are not nothing, and grinding out results whilst the chaos below does the heavy lifting has its own logic. But a side that cannot score cannot win, and a side that cannot win cannot pull clear. Four games without a goal is not a tactical masterclass. It is a crisis of attacking intent that, if it continues, will drag Leeds back into the very danger they are trying to escape.
The root of the problem is painfully visible to anyone who has watched Leeds in recent weeks. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, a striker who has proven throughout his career that he thrives on service, has now gone six matches without a goal. That in itself is not a disaster, all strikers have dry spells, but the manner of his isolation is the real concern. Calvert-Lewin is a penalty box striker, a header of the ball, a finisher who needs deliveries into the danger areas to do his best work. He is getting almost none of that. With no genuine wide players to stretch play and deliver the kind of crosses he feeds on, he is spending too much of his time chasing lost causes and holding up the ball in isolation, unsupported or uninvolved.
Lukas Nmecha has done little to ease that burden. Farke has him playing neither as a true second striker or a winger, instead occupying a curious no man's land that suits nobody, least of all the centre-forward who needs runners and service around him. It is a combination that looks increasingly like a tactical misfit, and Farke will need to find an answer quickly. Then there is Brenden Aaronson, who showed flashes of quality earlier in the season but is currently enduring some of his worst form of the season. The American is creating very little, offering minimal threat, giving the ball away and failing to provide the spark that might unlock stubborn defensive blocks. For a team that relies on energy and pressing from its attacking players, Aaronson's dip in form has left Leeds looking toothless in the final third.
The fixture list does Leeds no immediate favours either. First up is a trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, and this is not the stumbling, uncertain Amorim team of earlier in the season. Michael Carrick’s side arrive at this fixture with momentum and confidence restored. A Leeds side that has forgotten how to score travelling to a resurgent Old Trafford is not a fixture that inspires confidence, and a defeat there could prove deeply damaging should Leeds lose and West Ham take the points on offer against bottom club Wolves. The gap between the two clubs could shrink to just one point, with six games still to play the sleepwalk suddenly becomes a stumble into serious trouble.
After the trip across the Pennines, the fixture list does begin to look kinder. Wolves and Burnley are both struggling sides, and those back-to-back home games look like genuine opportunities to rediscover some attacking rhythm and put points on the board. Bournemouth away in between will be no pushover, but they have little left to play for. The Spurs game is one Leeds should be targeting too, given how broken that team look. Brighton, as ever, will pass the ball beautifully and create problems, but they are a side without the cutting edge to punish too severely. It is a run that, on paper, should yield enough points to secure survival comfortably but only if Leeds can find their scoring boots again.
The final game of the season is the one everybody wants to forget about. Leeds travel to the London Stadium to face West Ham, and the nightmare scenario is arriving there with survival still riding on the result. A raucous, hostile crowd, West Ham fighting for their Premier League lives, 90 minutes of pure nerve-shredding tension. It’s the kind of occasion that could go either way, and nobody of a Leeds persuasion wants to be in that position. The goal between now and then is simple: make that game irrelevant. Win two or three of the games before it, reach 40 points with a game or two to spare, and let the final day drama belong to someone else.
But to win games, Leeds need to score goals. And to score goals, Farke needs to find a way to get the best out of Calvert-Lewin, which means width, delivery and support that has been conspicuously absent. The return of Okafor could help but you feel like Gnonto and James have much more to offer during the run in, if only Farke would turn to them earlier. The draws are keeping Leeds afloat, but the nerves are not settling. The players are there. The crowd is there. The fixtures, for the most part, are there. What is missing is the football and time, with seven games remaining, is beginning to run out.