Bologna vs. Roma: Europa League derby favourite not so clear

Roma and Bologna will meet in the Europa League Round of 16, and although the Giallorossi appear slightly favourites to qualify for the quarter-finals, their victory is not guaranteed.

Roma and Bologna, the only two Serie A representatives in the Europa League, will meet in the Round of 16, which is surely no good news for Italian football.

By looking at the Serie A standings, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side looks favourite as the Giallorossi sit fourth, level on 50 points with Napoli, while Bologna are eighth with just 36 points, creating a gap that, on paper, appears as predictable as outcomes calculated by casino platform software.

The first leg will be played in Bologna on March 12, while the decider is scheduled for March 19 at the Stadio Olimpico. The winner will face Aston Villa or Lille in the quarter-finals.

Roma have collected better results than Bologna this season, both domestically and in Europe. The Giallorossi, in fact, finished the Europa League group phase in the top eight, qualifying directly for the next round, whereas Bologna had to go through the knockout play-off, where they beat Norwegian side Brann with a 2-0 aggregate win.

Bologna, however, will prioritise the cup competition, given that they are already quite far away from a Conference League spot in Serie A.

Roma, on the other hand, can’t afford to drop points in the league as they aim to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2017-18.

At the same time, Bologna coach Vincenzo Italiano has a special relationship with cup competitions. He has never lifted a European silverware, as Gian Piero Gasperini did with Atalanta in 2023-24, but he has already reached three finals with Fiorentina and one with Bologna.

During Italiano’s spell at the Franchi, Fiorentina reached two Conference League Finals and one Coppa Italia Final, losing all three.

At Bologna, Italiano won the Coppa Italia, beating Milan 1-0 in the 2024-25 Final.

The head-to-head record with Gasperini is also quite balanced, with Italiano winning seven of their previous 15 meetings, drawing three times, and losing five.

As previously mentioned, the Serie A derby between Bologna and Roma is not necessarily good news for Italian football, as directors of both sides have highlighted.

“As a player, I played in an (all-Italian) final with Juventus. We would have preferred to avoid it for a lot of reasons, including the emotional aspect,” said Bologna executive Marco Di Vaio.

“We’ll prepare well. It would have been a great challenge against Freiburg as well. We’ll see what happens.”

Roma’s Frederic Massara seemed to agree with his colleague: “Perhaps, it could lose a bit of the charm coming from a European match, but we know it’s a nice game, with a lot at stake. The regret is for the ranking, as this does not favour Italy.”