Portugal vs. Armenia: How a win, tie, or loss would affect their 2026 World Cup qualifying finish
This Sunday will bring an end to the action in Group F of the European qualifiers. Portugal will face Armenia at home, while simultaneously Hungary and Ireland meet in Budapest. Without Cristiano Ronaldo, Roberto Martinez’s team will try to secure their spot in the FIFA World Cup 2026.
In their last two matches, Portugal depended on themselves to reach the objective, yet still let the chance slip away. In October, they were beating Hungary in the World Cup qualifiers — a result that secured first place in the group — but a stoppage-time goal from Dominik Szoboszlai ruined the celebration.
And last Thursday in Ireland, things went terribly wrong. Once again, Roberto Martinez’s team stepped onto the field knowing that a win was enough to reach the World Cup spot. However, the hosts surprised them with two goals, and then Ronaldo was sent off, which ended any possibility of a comeback.
Now Portugal have a third and final chance to secure first place in Group F and, therefore, achieve direct qualification to the FIFA tournament that will be played next summer in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
What happens if Portugal beat Armenia?
If they secure a win against Armenia this Sunday at Estadio Do Dragao in Porto, Portugal will reach 13 points in the Group F standings and claim the top spot. That means they will secure direct qualification for the World Cup 2026.
What happens if Portugal tie against Armenia?
If Portugal earn a draw at home against Armenia, they will reach 11 points in the standings and will have to wait for what happens in Budapest. If Hungary beat Ireland, they will draw level with Portugal at the top of Group F.
In that case, the first tiebreaker is goal difference, where Portugal hold a +5 advantage. Hungary currently have +2, so they would need to win by at least three goals to move ahead of Ronaldo’s team. If goal difference is also tied, the next tiebreaker is head-to-head results, where Portugal have the advantage with one win and one draw.
What happens if Portugal lose against Armenia?
In the unlikely event that Portugal lose to the weakest team in the group, they will have to wait for the result of the other match. If Hungary win, they will qualify directly for the World Cup, and Portugal will have to play the European playoff in March.
If Ireland win in Budapest, they will be tied with Portugal at 10 points each, and the same tiebreaker rules mentioned earlier would apply. Finally, if Hungary and Ireland draw, Portugal will qualify for the World Cup even if they lose to Armenia, and Hungary would play the March playoff.