Betting Market Still Like Red Sox’s Playoff Chances Despite Slump

The Boston Red Sox have hit a rough patch down the wire, but they remain in control of their postseason path.

Boston’s breathing room in the American League playoff standings has evaporated after losing five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians sprinted into the picture by winning seven straight.

The Red Sox now lead the Guardians by just 1.5 games with 10 days left in the regular season. Fans may be getting nervous, but the betting markets still convey confidence in the Red Sox playing October baseball.

DraftKings gives the Red Sox -400 odds of making the playoffs, as of Friday morning. Wagering $100 on Boston punching a postseason ticket would net a mere $25 profit.

The Guardians, who are suddenly 3.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central, have +215 odds of reaching the playoffs.

A -400 line translates to an 80 percent implied probability. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox an 83 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, and ESPN is right in line with an 82.6 percent probability.

Oddsmakers may maintain reservations about Cleveland given the club’s minus-23 run differential. Boston, on the other hand, wields the AL’s second-highest scoring margin (+102) after the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox also won four of six games over the Guardians this season, giving them the crucial head-to-head tiebreaker. Cleveland has one more game remaining than Boston, playing a doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday.

Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet is also scheduled to make two more starts, including Friday night’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

While the Red Sox remain strongly positioned to make the playoffs, DraftKings ascribes a less optimistic +1300 line to win the AL and a +3000 chance to win the World Series.