NHL Draft History Points To Patience, Promise For Bruins At No. 7 Pick

The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa made an interesting point Wednesday in a story about Bruins general manager Don Sweeney’s ongoing coaching search.

Shinzawa said Sweeney is essentially taking his time, and in laying out potential considerations on the part of the new bench boss, the longtime Bruins reporter pointed to an unlucky NHL draft lottery bounce.

“The next coach is unlikely to have his new employer draft an NHL-ready player in June,” Shinzawa wrote.

Sweeney essentially addressed that same point Monday night after learning his team will draft No. 7 next month in Los Angeles.

“We’re just trying to take the best player that has a chance to be the best player in the National Hockey League, he’s capable of being,” Sweeney told reporters. “You always value hockey sense. You always value skating. You always value how competitive the player is. You try and take the best player you possibly can.”

If recent draft history is proof, the Bruins will most likely get that kind of player. There is typically a dropoff even throughout the first handful of picks.

Take 2007 for example: Patrick Kane went No. 1 overall and immediately made an impact in Chicago, scoring 21 goals with 51 assists while playing every game of the season he was drafted. Meanwhile, Jakub Voracek went No. 7 overall to Columbus. He didn’t make his NHL debut until 2008, he posted just 9-29-38 totals in 80 games. He went on to play 1,058 NHL games with more than 800 points.

The Bruins will take that — it just means they might not get it right away.

Looking back over the last 20 years, it’s hard to find any major whiffs at No. 7 outside of Lias Andersson. The Rangers took the Swedish forward in 2017. He scored seven goals in 110 games and is now back in Sweden playing.

Here’s a list of the No. 7 picks since 2010:

2010: C Jeff Skinner (Carolina)
2011: C Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg)
2012: D Matthew Dumba (Minnesota)
2013: D Darnell Nurse (Edmonton)
2014: D Haydn Fleury (Carolina)
2015: D Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia)
2016: C Clayton Keller (Arizona)
2017: C Lias Andersson (New York Rangers)
2018: D Quinn Hughes (Vancouver)
2019: C Dylan Cozens (Buffalo)
2020: RW Alexander Holtz (New Jersey)
2021: LW William Eklund (San Jose)
2022: D Kevin Korchinski (Chicago)
2023: RW Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia)
2024: Carter Yamechuk (Ottawa)

Again, looking through that list, there are some elite players. In the case of a couple, there’s a Hall of Fame path.

The last two years also serve as good examples of what could happen. Philly drafted Michkov in 2023, and he played the season in Russia. He came over ahead of the 2024-25 campaign and scored 26 goals with 37 assists as a 20-year-old. Yamechuk, taken by the Senators a year ago, spent the season in Calgary, where he posted solid 17-32-49 totals on the Hitmen blue line.

The Bruins got unlucky Monday night, but if they play their cards right moving forward, there’s a strong chance there’s a decent payout around the corner.