Champions League: How many points are needed to advance?
The UEFA Champions League has introduced a new format, replacing the traditional group stage with a league phase. This significant change has left many fans confused, with some describing the format as overwhelming and complex. To help clarify the situation, a platform for statistics has calculated how many points teams will likely need to secure a spot in the knockout rounds.
The previous Champions League format featured 32 teams divided into eight groups of four. Each team played six matches—three at home and three away—against the other three teams in their group. The top two teams from each group would advance to the round of 16.
Starting from the new campaign, the group stage is replaced by a single league phase, involving 36 teams. Each team will play eight matches—four at home and four away—against eight different opponents. These opponents will be drawn from four seeding pots, ensuring a mix of matchups across various levels of competition.
In this new league phase, all 36 teams are ranked together in a single table based on their performance across the eight matches. The top eight teams in the league standings will automatically qualify for the round of 16. Teams finishing between 9th and 24th will enter a two-legged knockout phase play-off to compete for the remaining eight spots in the round of 16. Teams that finish 25th or lower will be eliminated from the competition; they will have no opportunity to drop into the UEFA Europa League.
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How many points do clubs need to go past League Phase?
With the new format, the number of points required to qualify for the knockout stages will differ from the previous group stage system. Football Meets Data claims that they have run over 10,000 ELO-based scenarios. Thus, per their calculations, it is estimated that teams will need around 15 points to secure a top-eight finish; that way, they will automatically qualify for the round of 16. This would typically require five wins out of the eight matches or a combination of wins and draws.
Nine points should be more than enough for clubs hoping to finish in the top 24,; it would provide them an opportunity to participate in the elimination round play-offs. This means that even with a few losses, teams could still have a chance to advance to the next stage.
Why is it confusing?
The confusion among fans primarily stems from the drastic shift from the familiar group stage format to this new league phase. In the previous format, the progression was straightforward—finish in the top two of your group, and you advance. The new format, however, introduces more variables, as teams are now competing in a broader pool and the matchups are not home-and-away against the same three teams but rather against eight different opponents.
Another source of confusion is the introduction of a play-off round for teams finishing between 9th and 24th. This means that a team could finish as low as 24th in the league phase and still have a shot at reaching the round of 16, depending on their performance in the play-offs.
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