Big Ten football preview: Expanded conference should produce a fascinating race … for third place
Our quest to decode the Big Ten pecking order did not take long or require a deep dive into conference history. The access key to 2024 was conveniently available in 2023 — in last year’s West division standings.
You might recall that Iowa finished two games clear of Northwestern and Wisconsin. But from there, the West was an absolute cluster: Four teams (Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska and Purdue) tied for fourth place with 3-6 records in league play.
The Hotline does not like picking ties, even when forecasting an 18-team race with no divisions and nine conference games. So against our better judgment, we didn’t pick ties.
But there will be ties in 2024, folks. Three-team ties. Four-team ties. Maybe even a five-team tie. And it will be like that up and down the standings.
The blueprint for the first season of the Big Ten’s new chapter can be found in the final season of the Big Ten’s previous era.
Who figured the West division, with its antiquated offenses and single-digit final scores, was actually ahead of its time?
To the forecast …
1. Ohio State: It’s national championship or bust for the Buckeyes — OK, maybe reaching the title game will suffice — and with good reason: They’re stocked on the lines of scrimmage and at the skill positions thanks to a dream combination of returning stars and high-level transfers. But Ohio State will have to earn its berth in the conference title game: The schedule is rugged with Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Iowa.
2. Oregon: The Ducks should get comfortable in their new home fairly quickly. Like Ohio State, they retained top talent and loaded up with elite transfers, including Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel. That said, coach Dan Lanning must prove he can win close games against premier competition, and the Ducks must navigate a slew of cross-country trips in the second half of the season. The Wisconsin game strikes us as particularly dangerous.
3. Penn State: We see a sizable gap between the top two and everyone else, with the Nittany Lions as the frontrunners for third place. The defense will be superb at all levels, but is quarterback Drew Allar ready to make big throws in crucial situations of make-or-break games? The Nittany Lions don’t play Oregon or Michigan, which should help their quest to become the best of the rest.
4. Iowa: The schedule rotation played a central role in our forecast, particularly with the Hawkeyes. They don’t face Michigan. Or Penn State. Or Oregon. Or USC. Add a slew of returning starters and the upgrade to new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, who replaced Brian Ferentz, and a first-rate season could unfold in Iowa City.
5. Michigan: The more we examine the Wolverines, the more skeptical we become. It’s not just the transition to rookie coach Sherrone Moore or the loss of so much NFL talent or the challenging schedule or the lingering NCAA scandal or the uncertainty at quarterback or the hangover from a glorious season. It’s all of that, plus obstacles that we haven’t considered — but are sure to surface.
6. USC: It takes unusual circumstances for the Trojans to be cast down onto the second tier. But combine the Big Ten move with the loss of Caleb Williams and doubts about Lincoln Riley’s defense and, well, USC looks more like pretender than contender. We expect the Trojans to improve on defense but regress on offense and meander through the season, well behind the Big Ten’s big two.
7. Nebraska: The Hotline expects a major uptick in Lincoln, just as second-year coach Matt Rhule produced turnarounds in his second seasons at Temple and Baylor. Much depends on freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who doesn’t need to make game-winning plays so much as he must avoid game-losing mistakes. Notably, the schedule does not include Oregon, Michigan or Penn State. Looking for a mega-sleeper to sneak into the conference championship game? Consider the Huskers.
8. Wisconsin: If not Rhule, then Luke Fickell — one of the second-year head coaches will produce an upside surprise (but probably not both). The Badgers lost six games last season and failed to score more than 14 points in four of the defeats, so solutions are needed on that side of scrimmage. Fortunately, a Week Three visit from Alabama means we won’t have to wait long to assess Wisconsin’s viability in the Big Ten race.
9. Rutgers: There were several contenders, but the Scarlet Knights emerged as the biggest winners in the conference schedule lottery. They don’t play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. Which means Greg Schiano is living right … and has zero excuses for anything less than a top-half finish.
10. Maryland: We have reached the point in the forecast when it becomes exceedingly difficult to identify material differences in mediocre teams and craft a witty or pithy comment. So let’s just wish the Terps well and move along.
11. Washington: If Jedd Fisch intended to lower expectations for UW when he took the podium at Big Ten media days and detailed all the roster and staff changes on Montlake, he certainly succeeded. The Huskies simply don’t have the continuity where it matters most, on the offensive line and in the secondary, to stack together enough wins to contend. Especially not with one of the toughest road schedules (Iowa, Penn State, Oregon) in the conference.
12. Indiana: We mulled slotting the Hoosiers as high as No. 10 and as low as No. 15 — they are difficult to read with a new coach, Curt Cignetti, who won big at James Madison. Success in the Group of Five doesn’t always translate to the power conference level, especially when it comes to football coaches at basketball schools surrounded by football blue bloods.
13. Michigan State: Speaking of football coaches at basketball schools surrounded by football blue bloods, Jonathan Smith faces a difficult task in his new gig, at least this year. Eventually, Aidan Chiles could become a stellar quarterback and lift the Spartans out of the mass of mediocrity in the middle of the Big Ten standings. But not this year. Too soon.
14. Illinois: The Hotline is oddly intrigued by an 18-team conference in which the first school represented alphabetically is, in fact, Illinois (and seven school names start with vowels). As for coach Bret Bielema’s fourth season in Champagne, we offer this context: Seven wins would be an achievement of the highest order.
15. Minnesota: The post-COVID era has seen a regression in Minnesota’s performance, from 6-3 in conference play in 2021 to 5-4 in 2022 to 3-6 last season. Changing the trajectory — or simply hitting pause for one year — depends largely on the play of quarterback Max Brosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire.
16. UCLA: DeShaun Foster quipped recently that he’s “keeping receipts” from skeptical pundits, and we admire his confidence and candor. The Hotline prefers to track air miles, and here’s what our UCLA spreadsheet shows: at Hawaii, at LSU, at Penn State, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, at Washington. All this without a proven quarterback or a single position group that ranks among the best in the Big Ten — and with a rookie head coach. UCLA’s ceiling is probably 10th place, while its floor is the floor.
17. Northwestern: Did we mention floors? Because the Wildcats could very well claim that space for their own. The uplifting performance in 2023 under interim (now permanent) coach David Braun will give way to the grim roster reality for a school that cannot execute quick makeovers.
18. Purdue: The intent here is not to pick on Purdue — there are several candidates for the Big Ten cellar. We simply found it exceedingly difficult to identify more than two or three winnable games for the Boilermakers given a schedule that features Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.
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