Racing Report: 2024 Q1 performance against published targets

Upon publication of the 2024 fixture list, the BHA introduced a two-year trial of a number of initiatives designed to maximise opportunities around our biggest fixtures and increase the public’s engagement with horseracing.

To measure the effectiveness of these changes, 12 targets were agreed with the Horserace Betting Levy Board (HBLB) and published. Reviews of these will be undertaken on a quarterly basis by the industry’s Commercial Committee prior to consideration by the BHA Board, in order to track the impact of the initiatives, and in some cases so that necessary adjustments can be applied across the course of the two years.

A detailed review of the first quarter of 2024 has now taken place and the following blog will outline the overall performance of the racing product.

Please note: Where possible, specifically in sporting performance, viewing figures and racecourse attendance, analysis also includes the month of April. This is not possible for betting data, which is received later than these other data sets.

It is very important to stress that it is early days into the two-year trial to be reporting on numbers. Moreover, the period under review was beset by wet weather and a relatively high level of abandonments, including of some key meetings and races. It will be possible to form a more reliable view of how things are progressing once we get to the end of June and have data for the first half of the year.

The Targets

The agreed targets comprised a combination of measures, some of which were specific to 2024 and others which covered the entirety of the two-year trial period.

At this stage, it is possible to update on nine of the 12, with three of the targets being based around longer-term timescales.

The remaining nine targets can be assessed based on the four criteria of betting performance, sporting performance, viewing (those watching via streams, racing broadcasts or in betting shops) and racecourse attendance.

When assessing each of these it is, as stated upon publication of the targets last year, important that the data is viewed with some caution. Small sample sizes such as the first quarter of a two-year trial period can deliver perceived short-term wins and losses and therefore all should be considered in this context.

Sporting performance

It will come as news to nobody that the aforementioned wet start to 2024 has had an impact on our racing product for this period.

A total of 2,907 races were run up to 30 April this year, 42 fewer than the same period in 2023. This comprises 94 more Flat races and 136 fewer Jumps fixtures.

Turning to the specific targets, the first in this area relates to prize money at Premier fixtures, specifically that it should increase by £6-7m in 2024, and for total prize money at the remainder of the fixture list to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

Progress towards this target is on track following the first quarter of 2024, with total prize money £1 million higher than in 2023, with Premier meetings £3.2 million higher and core fixtures £2.2 million lower.

As far as race competitiveness is concerned, the weather has had an impact over the Jumps, where nearly all measures of competitiveness are tracking below 2021 and 2023 but ahead of 2022, almost certainly as a consequence of the wet weather and associated ground conditions. In all, 71% of Jumps races have been run on soft ground or softer, as opposed to 43% last year, 36% in 2022 and 39% in 2023.

Flat meetings, however, have performed comparatively well so far this year. Competitiveness at Flat Premier meetings is running at a four-year high for average field size, percentage of races with eight or more runners and the percentage of races with odds-against favourites. At Flat core fixtures, 70% of races have had at least eight runners, also a four-year high.

As a result, we are partially on track to meet three of the published targets, namely:

• To grow average field sizes at Premier and core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023;
• To grow the percentage of races with 8+ runners at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023 and;
• To grow the percentage of races with an odds-against favourite at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

For each of the above, Premier and Core Jumps fixtures have yet to meet the targets.

Betting performance

Two of the analysed targets relate to betting performance. They are:

• Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek floodlit fixtures by 15 to 20% and;
• Slowing the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier Fixtures showing 1 to 2% better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list.

As has already been publicised, the first targets, linked to the six-meeting trial of Sunday evening meetings, was not achieved and an update regarding that pilot was issued last month.

The second of the targets requires some context to consider in full, and can be said to be somewhat on track to being achieved. The impact of affordability checks and the challenging economic climate have contributed towards betting on racing having been in decline for some time and that trend has continued from January to March, when total betting turnover dropped by 5.9%. More positively, the betting companies report that the number of active bettors are up, in particular on Saturdays.

It is too early to be reaching any strong conclusions on betting numbers but, removing the effect of the Cheltenham Festival, Premier Racedays are outperforming betting on the rest of the fixture list; the decline at Premier Fixtures was 2.7%, compared with 5.2% across Core meetings.

The introduction of Premier Raceday fixtures on Sundays has seen a particularly strong start, with betting turnover per race at these meetings 21.3% higher compared to equivalent fixtures in 2023.

Racecourse attendances

As has been well documented elsewhere, attendance at racecourses remains a challenge for the industry. A total of 409 completed fixtures took place up to 30 April, down ten (2.4%) from the same period in 2023, with total attendances 6.4% lower than that same period in 2023.

Premier Racedays have performed slightly better, being down 4.5%, especially on Saturdays, where the decrease is 2%. This does, however, mean that we are not on track at this point against one of the targets, which was to halt the decline in total attendance at Premier Fixtures in 2024 and then increasing them by 5 to 10% in 2025 versus 2023.

Saturdays as a whole have seen attendances down 32,000 on the first four months of the year but this has undoubtedly been impacted by abandonments and, with Premier meetings holding up reasonably well, we remain on track to hit the target of having Saturday attendances largely having recovered by 2025.

Core meetings have seen a greater decline of 7.7% but have suffered more as a result of abandonments.

The three Saturday fixtures moved out of the day’s protected window have shown mixed results compared to the same fixture in 2023. At Thirsk, the crowd was slightly up by 2%, Yarmouth saw a drop of 10% and Ripon lost 44%, approximately 2,000 people. There are a number of factors that can contribute to this and it is too early at this stage to properly assess the impact of these moves. We will continue to monitor this as the trial progresses.

Viewing figures

In Q1 of 2024, ITV Racing’s average audience increased by 11% year on year in to 514,000, with a small increase in audience share over the same period.

Whilst this is good news, this performance is behind that achieved in Q1 2022 (average audience 552,000) and reflects a levelling out of wider linear TV audience trends for live sport, which began to be seen in Q4 2023.

A published target, which recognised the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shops, was to reduce the number of clashing races (defined as a British or Irish race running into a British race) on Saturday afternoons (up to 5pm) in 2024 from over 8% to 5%.

While the number of clashes has reduced, from 10.4% to 8.8% in the first period of 2024, there remains work to be done to meet this target.

Next steps

Overall, these figures demonstrate the scale of the work still to be done in order to ensure racing is performing as best as it can, with the best horses racing on our biggest racedays and engaging the public more than we are currently.

It is important to keep in mind that these figures represent only the first quarter of the first year of a two-year trial of a package of initiatives There is still a long way to go and not every quarter of these two years will see, for example, the kind of challenging weather conditions we have seen in Q1.

The picture will become clearer as we progress through 2024. When the first half of the year is considered as a whole, there we be more we can say with some degree of certainty about the performance of the racing product and what tweaks may or may not be needed to maximise the trial period.

We will report on the first half of the year later in the summer.

Summary of progress against targets

Target 2

Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) floodlit fixtures by 15 to 20%.

Not achieved – Total digital turnover averaged 3.6% higher than midweek floodlit fixtures across the six fixtures.

Target 3

Slowing the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier Fixtures showing 1-2% better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list.

On track if excluding impact of the Cheltenham Festival – Premier (excluding Cheltenham Festival) down 2.7% compared with Core down 5.2%.

Target 4

To halt the decline in total attendances at Premier Fixtures in 2024, and then increasing by 5-10% in 2025 versus 2023.

Not on track – Total attendances at Premier Fixtures staged in both 2023 and 2024 were 561k in 2024 (down 4.5%).

Target 5

For Saturday attendances to have largely recovered by 2025.

On track – Saturdays down 32k first 4 months but impacted by abandonments and Premier holding up well compared to rest of fixtures.

Target 6

Recognising the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shop, the target is to reduce the number of clashing races (defined as a British or Irish race running into a British race) on Saturdays afternoons (up to5pm) in 2024 from over 8% to 5%.

Not on track – Year to date, the number of clashes on Saturday afternoon has fallen from 10.4% to 8.8% of all races.

Target 9

Total prize money at Premier Fixtures to increase by £6-7m in 2024 and for total prize money at the remainder of the fixturelist to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

On track – Total prize money at Premier Fixtures increased by £3.2m.

Target 10

To grow average field sizes at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier. Not Achieved: Flat Core, Jump Premier, Jump Core.

Target 11

To grow the percentage of races with 8+ runners at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier, Flat Core. Not Achieved: Jump Premier, Jump Core.

Target 12

To grow the percentage of races with an odds-against favourite at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier. Not Achieved: Flat Core, Jump Premier, Jump Core.