La Vuelta D’Esperation

The Vuelta is an odd beast, perched as it is in its own little bubble, oddly isolated from the rest of the cycling season. Almost no-one actually plans for the Vuelta – given its distance from the beginning of the season, doing so is almost entirely a waste of effort, given the vagaries of form, fitness and collision. Unlike the Tour and the Giro, LaVuelta doesn’t even have its own warm up races, unless you include the Blink Blink tour, which judging by the complete lack of commonality of start lists, almost nobody does. Rather, the race is populated by a mixture of those who – for one reason or another – need to rescue their season, and those who – again, for one reason or another – are simply here for the beer (here’s looking at you, Stuey O’Grady). This gives the race an extremely strange vibe, part Last Orders and part Last Chance Saloon. All of which is a lead in to saying that the dynamics of the race are best viewed through the prism of the pressures facing the teams and riders who are taking part. At any give time, almost half the race would give its right kidney for a result – the trick is knowing which half. Therefore, ladies and gentlemen, I give you: the Addict official LaVuelta Desperation Index.

Astana

I sometimes think you have to be desperate just to ride for Astana, what with Vino lurking in the background like an albino vampire, but then this is cycling and Astana has money, so join the dots. In terms of specific, rather than general, desperation this Astana selection appears to be less desperate and more unjustifiably optimistic – it’s a tough ask for Aru to go back in the ring against the guys who just knocked him down, supported by a weaker team and against a field that is if anything stronger than it was in the Tour. Beyond that, there will be a certain amount of personal desperation from Aru, as he is in the middle of contract negotiations with Astana and UAE. While neither of those two outfits are exactly strapped for actual cash, a good performance here is likely to be the difference between Fabio being merely covered in money or actively drowned in the stuff. This could be one of those occasions where the rider is more stressed by the team.

Desperation index: reasonably desperate, given the dollars riding on it. Oh, and the fans would desperately like Aru to learn how to use his team

AG2R

Somewhere between relaxed and depressed, is my read of the situation. AG2R – as we know – had a cracking Tour de France, with Bardet riding high and the team throwing all sorts of jujitsu down on the road as and when required. And 3rd place in the Tour would in times past be classed as a triumph worth of its own Arc. Any yet: there is no question than Bardet himself was massively disappointed in his own result, and his podium felt as much like defeat as it was possible for 3rd place to feel (the abiding image of AG2R’s tour for me is not the many triumphs, it’s a wordless Bardet under a towel in Marseille). It’s likely that Romain won’t actually fight for GC (he’s hoping to "figure prominently in those stages that correspond to my strengths") but a good performance in specific stages will go a long way towards rebuilding morale. Furthermore, completing a second grand tour in a year will be another step towards the strength he needs next year. And – whether he knows it or not – a decent time trial might help for the future as well. All in all, I’m saying that AG2R are relaxed but nervous: the last thing they need is for Romain to feel thrown to the lions again.

Desperation index: relaxed, but aware things could go pear shaped.

Bahrain-Merida

Bahrain’s desperation is personal, and consists of Vincenzo Nibali’s fight against old father time. The number of Grand Tour’s the Shark can reasonably expect to be competitive in is declining rapidly towards zero (some on this site argue it is already there) and while Nibali rode his smarts and race knowledge to a Podium in Italy, he never seriously looked like turning 3rd into 1st. Still, he arrives at the start with a relatively strong team behind him (and his brother), though I admit I am very confused to see Franco Pellizotti’s name on the list, and is definitely on the superior preparation curve to most of the other favorites. To me, this race falls into the category of "last, best chance to win a final GT" for our Vicenzo – the fields are getting crowded, quickly. The only factor to lessen the desperation is that Nibs has been there and done that: his legacy really isn’t going to be much changed whether he wins this Vuelta or no. So he can go about this with focus and professionalism, and see what comes.

Desperation index: tick tock, tick tock

BMC

If there was ever a disaster of a season, BMC has had it. Something you can say pretty much every season, I know. I have no real idea what BMC are for, except creating usable tax losses for Andy Rihs, but I am guessing even he is distinctly unimpressed by the CHF/ results ratio of the team. At some stage, he has got to be tempted to blow the whole thing up, and spend his time and energy on something less expensive, for example heating his Swiss Chalet with a dollar-bill fired furnace. So yes, you could say BMC are desperate for a result. They are also, unfortunately, desperate for a clue, as they are pitching up with the ever reliable "four leader" strategy and have assembled a squad that appears to have been selected via that well known combination of blindfold and drawing pin. Tejay will get another chance to demonstrate that he and steep hills don’t mix*, Rohan Dennis is most definitely not going to feature in the GC, Sammy Sanchez is older than some of the statues that are being removed in the US, and Nico Roche is still, last time I looked, Nico Roche, though from the evidence of the Tour, he has added some bizarrely large guns, which are definitely going to help him up the Alto de los Machucos. The rest of the team (all five of them) are going to go for stage wins.

*You have to love Tejay, who continues to prove that his career is satirical performance art of the finest quality by providing Cycling News with the following gem: "It's a tough course with lots of steep uphill finishes that lends many different opportunities for attacks and an explosive style of racing". Apparently, that’s a good thing…

Update: the legend of SamSan’s long life has been revealed to be what it is. Down from four leaders to three.

Desperation index: not waving but drowning

Desperation index update: truly desperate

Bora Hansgrohe

Like Bora themselves, I’ve got nothing. I mean, I know they are Pro Tour and everything, but I have them pegged in my mind as the Peter Sagan show (to be fair, it’s usually a pretty good show, unless you are Mark Cavendish’s shoulder). So a look at their starting team, and yep: no Slovakian. Hence, I can only assume that for Bora in this race, anything that goes on Tour, stays on Tour. This squad feels thoroughly phoned in.

Desperation index: here for the beer, or "stage hunting" as it is known

Cannondale-Drapac

Cannondale-Drapac have been the butt of much criticism (not least from me) for their transmogrification from an easily definable group of scappy-but-clean (or clean-but-scappy) underdogs to your basic average collection of "meh". And in truth, 2017 for the most part continued to demonstrate their faultless ability to turn bronze into bronze, with the summary of their year being a great big collection of nothing. Coming into July, Seb Langeveld’s 3rd at Roubaix may have been the highlight of the year, alongside Pierre Rolland’s stage win at the Giro. Given expectations at the beginning of the Tour, the Vuelta was shaping up to be a genuinely desperate last roll of the dice to keep the year somewhat respectable – cue stage hunting galore. And then the Tour happened, Rigo Uran magically reappeared as a GC racer (without doing any actual GC racing) and the sun is out and God’s in his heaven. The Vuelta has gone from a "must have" to "nice bonus" in the time it takes to say "Romain Bardet really can’t time trial". All of which means that Andrew Talansky can continue to explore whether there is any reality behind his hype without the pressure of actually needing to win anything.

Desperation index: surprisingly chilled.

Dimension Data

I find it difficult to get a read on Team DD. On the one hand, they have their history of Africa and the alignment with Qhubeka, all of which speaks to a "we’re here to show the jersey vibe", especially when combined with the fact they have a slightly odd collection of stage hunters and no real financial muscle. On the other hand, they are (now) a ProTour team, and that in itself has to come with some expectations, expectations that DiDi has signally failed to meet this year. Admittedly, Sagan’s elbow had something to do with that, but even so you have to judge the step up as a step back from last year’s raiding. As a result, expect lots of break presence from the squad, and a general prayer that one or more of them stick.

Desperation index: got to be there, just a little

FDJ

FDJ I think gets a "French team in Spain" holiday pass here. Given their year, with Pinot missing out on the podium in Italy and Demarre being underwhelming and then unwell in France, there ought to be some keenness to get a result. However, FDJ is as good as an institution as cycling has, having been around since at least 1997, 2018 is already financed, and to heck with it, there are French second tier races to win. All of which adds up to a distinctly underwhelming squad pitching up to – eh, what? Nimes? Time Trial? Merde.

Desperation index: desperately disappointed the race starts in Nimes and they actually have to pay attention. And that said start in Nimes will involve TT bikes.

Katusha-Alpecin

Quick everyone, name something that Katusha has done this year. Well, yes, I suppose Alexander Kristoff did indeed win the RideLondon and its obscenely out of proportion purse. Other than that? Simon Spilak winning the Tour de no-one-cares-about-Suisse-this-year? Yep, that sound you hear is the bottom of the barrel being scraped. Rather amazingly, Kristoff has north of 1000 CQ ranking points, which merely demonstrates that in cycling, you win or you die. My read is that therefore the pressure on Ilnur Zakarin to replicate his 5th at the Giro, ideally in a way which is somewhat (more) memorable, is considerable. There are a fair amount of Russian export dollars invested in Katusha, almost certainly not by the Russian mob, and a return on investment is expected.

Desperation index: "Does he have hands? Does he have a face? Then it wasn’t us"*

*I may have been watching The Wire recently

Lotto-Jumbo

Lotto are one of the few teams that is actually in a fairly comfortable slot. While they are no longer the Rabonaut of ancient history, they have done a nice job of showing the jersey and nailing results. They have also turned up with a team that looks both well balanced and fresh. Sure, I don’t think Cruiseship will actually trouble the podium, and Bobo Gesink is a stage hunter now, but given their resources this is a well set up team that has the freedom to take the race as it comes.

Desperation index: keeping calm and carrying on

Lotto-Soudal

If there aren’t sweaty palms on the Lotto team bus, there damn well ought to be. Lotto have been on a downward trend for a few years now, and this year has been particularly down, topped off by Andre Greipel breaking his famous ten year streak of winning at least one stage in every Grand Tour he has ridden in. There has been frankly pretty much nothing to write home about this year, and the idea of this team as a rival to Quick-Step (its position only a few years ago) is a bit laughable now. So yes, I would say everyone should be feeling the pressure. At least the team they are bringing – despite it being a classic Vuelta team of the "whoever we have left standing" variety - actually has some good stories: we will get our usual dose of Crazy, who always enlivens any race he is in, and Adam Hansen is looking to complete his 241st consecutive Grand Tour (ok, 19th, but still, chap-oh!).

Desperation index: desperately hoping Hansen makes it to the end of the race

Movistar

It really wasn’t supposed to be like this. When he sat down in January, Eusebio Unzue would have been hoping for Valverde to sweep up the Ardennes, Quintana to land the Giro-Tour double, and then the Green Bullet to bring home the Vuelta as a swansong for a year of total domination. And things certainly opened to plan, with the team dominating the early season Spanish races, Quintana winning Tirreno-Adriatico, and Valverde doing the Fleche / Liege twostep. Then the wheels fell off. Nairo lost a climby Giro to some random Dutch timetriallist and then was ineffective in the Tour as a result, and Valverde suffered a horror crash in the opening Tour TT / swimming competition. The result is that they arrive in their home Grand Tour notionally led by a combination of the 23 year old Marc Soler and the 23 stone* Carlos Betancur. This was most definitely not the plan. It’s fair to say that the season post-April has been an unmitigated disaster. Come this Vuelta, I have no idea whether they will actually give the GC a run (irrelevant though that thought may be) or just hurl their group of B-list climbers at every break going and hope that something sticks. Whichever way it goes, Unzue is certain to be feeling the heat from his sponsors, who most definitely do not fund the team so that they can be invisible in their home GT.

*Sorry – Carlos has turned his career (and weight) around, and in any case fat shaming dudes who are 70kg is a little silly, but I couldn’t resist…

Desperation index: desperately wondering what the heck happened.

Orica Scott

The last time I saw a desperate Australian, it was 2010 and he was looking at Alastair Cook rack up another daddy hundred. Since that is seven years and ago and in an entirely different sport, I doubt that Orica would admit to much pressure. Nevertheless, I had thought that Orica had had a fairly decent year, but that appears to be recency bias dominated by ANother Yates’ white jersey at the Tour. Truth be told, I think their spring took a step backwards, with nothing much to write home about. Yates1 did ok at the Giro, though perhaps less well than he hoped (losing the Young Rider comp to Bobby J would have stung), and Yates2 did well at the Tour. The net effect is that they definitely will want to perform at the Vuelta, both for developmental reasons and to burnish a season that has been close but not cigar fulfilled. Furthermore, they are led by 2 (or 3) riders who have quite some things to prove in Esteban Chaves and #Idontknowwhichoneiswhich Yates, all of whom are effectively auditioning for leadership at next year’s Tour. Certainly, individual ambitions will be high up the list of priorities, even without the desire to put a decent result on the board for the team. Orica aren’t desperate – but if things go awry the pressure will ramp up pretty quickly.

Desperation index: "I’ll tell you what pressure is. Pressure is a Messerschmitt up your arse. Playing cricket [ok, pro cycling] is not." Keith Miller, Australian cricket legend (and WW2 Mosquito pilot).

Quick-Step Floors

Honestly, I doubt Patrick Lefevere could find Spain on a map. Let’s face it, the only reason he knows where France is is that it has Roubaix in it, so anything south of the Pyrenees is a long way from his natural comfort zone, especially when it is later in the year than, say, April. QS and the Vuelta are definitely a "last day at school" combo. While the spring was acceptable rather than brilliant (Gilbert saving their blushes with a remarkable 50km saunter in the Ronde), the Steppers have actually managed to have a pretty good stage race season, what with Gaviria and Bobby Jungels’ exploits in May and Dan Martin surprising everyone by racing competitively through the three weeks in July. The blemish was Kittel’s crash surrendering the Green jersey, but even then he brought home enough stage win bacon to feed the team for the month. Even the Vuelta squad is set up to have a relaxing time: Alaphilippe would like to do well (and may well do so) but is primarily about coming back to racing following a tough season, and the rest of the starting group are probably on stage-hunting duty, unless Jungels has suddenly learned how to climb 20% ramps. All in all, I think it will be a pretty relaxed group who will be happy to take the race as it comes.

Desperation index: when the cat’s away…

Sunweb

I think we should go right ahead and rename the Webbies "Team Sunlounger". Having somewhat surprisingly won the Giro, and then dominated pretty much every storyline going at the Tour, Sunweb have had an amazing year, especially given their relatively constrained financial firepower. Plus, they just Doomed the other Grand Tour (even if it does have a silly name). Frankly, the entire team could crash coming down the start ramp of the TTT, and this season would still be a runaway success. Barguil will – as he likes – tilt at stages, and Wilco Kelderman will aim for a top 10, but honestly there isn’t a team in the peloton who are playing with as much house money as Sunweb.

Desperation index: really not desperate in any way at all

Sky

Desperation is an emotion, and we know the Bots don’t do that. Furthermore, they paid the yearly bills in July, so August is gravy. That having been said, let’s not underestimate the "focus" that will be present in #MarginalGainsLand. They clearly took a pretty major risk with Chris Froome’s prep for the Tour, a risk that just paid off, and they will be extremely keen to land the rationale for that risk, especially since I don’t think they take the risk again. Froome personally clearly has unfinished business with the Vuelta, and this will be the best form he will ever have had coming in. I am tempted to say that if he doesn’t win this year, he never will, and there are certain people* who will question his GT quality if he doesn’t add a pink or red garland to the multiple yellows in his suitcase.

*Disclosure: I am not one of them

Sky have also come loaded for bear: given that this is their 3rd full on GT tilt of the year, this is a pretty impressive squad that they are wheeling out to help Froome tilt at his windmill. I was going to list the "key domestiques" but there isn’t a passenger amongst them. No, let’s face it, the Death Star isn’t going to be a party bus this year.

Desperation status: Sky don’t do desperation, but if they did, it would be the best desperation in the world

Trek-Segafredo

Well, we know what Trek’s about this Vuelta, and it is the Alberto Contador farewell tour. In truth, Trek was always going to be about El Pistolero this race, so his retirement merely comfirms the fact. Personally, I think this lowers the pressure on what was already a relatively chilled squad: the sponsor’s names will be all over coverage (unless AC crashes himself out) and there has in any case been enough Bauke Mollema related action this year to keep hopes up for the future. Within the team there may be a few stressed characters: John Degonkolb undoubtedly wants to engage in a bit of timely season rescuing, and Jarlinson Pantano will be hoping for the opportunity to roam, but I think at the end of each day the team’s management are going to look at the papers, see pictures of Contador all over every front page, and be quietly tranquilo.

Desperation levels: personal agendas aside, the team’s job should be easy

UAE Team Emirates

Another new team, another petrochemical sponsor, another year of absolute crickets. Rui Costa’s occasional relevance in the Giro notwithstanding, Louis Mientje’s tilt at white in France was the absolute highlight of a totally forgettable debut. This squad has stage hunting all over it, but even a successful breakaway is unlikely to dry the palms overmuch. This is a team with much ground to make up, and very few weapons to make it up with.

Desperation levels: I wonder if Arab Petrochemical tycoons are any more relaxed than Russian ones?

Cofidis

I was about to say something snarky about a French Pro-Conti team in Spain, and then I remembered the fond memories I have of David Moncoutié (the man who put the "ou" in "insouciant") taking out a holiday timeshare on the Mountains Jersey for the years between 2008 and 2011, with four stage wins along the way. So it isn’t as if the team has no track record in the Vuelta. In addition, their season has been something of a disaster, with a relative non show from Nasser Bouhani in the Tour (with his best a 4th on the Champs), and otherwise a dreary and small collection of SSR wins, with probably the best being Bouhanni himself at Paris-Camembert (still the leader in the clubhouse for "most ridiculous race name"). In addition, with the rise of some real live French racers, it cannot any longer be enough simply to sling a string of onions around your shoulders and say "Boeff" every few minutes to stay relevant to L’Equipe. All of which is a long way around to saying I think that Cofidis ought to be pretty damn desperate. However, they left their big hitter (pun most definitely intended) at home and are led by Danny Navarro, who has had a distinctly quiet season and in any case is approximately 349 years old. I’m therefore calling this one for the "on tour" brigade.

Desperation index: Desperately wondering where the heck they are

Caja-Rural Seguros

Spanish Pro-conti team in the Vuelta. Need I say more? If they aren’t in every break, every day, there will be blood.

Desperation index: totally.

Aqua-Blue Sport

An Irish Pro-Conti team filled with Sky’s Northern European rejects, at the Vuelta. Yeah, I have no idea either.

Desperation index: to get out of the sun before they fry like a crisp

Manzana Postbon

It’s safe to say I know nothing about Manzana Postbon, except to say, see above re Caja Rural.

Desperation index: desperately hoping to be better than Caja Rural