The #1 Seed Most Likely to Fall in the March Madness 2026 Sweet 16 Round

Like in the many years prior, March Madness 2026 has seen some exciting games, some “unexpected” upsets, and, of course, some busted brackets. Speaking of which, before the start of the men's tournament this year, I made three bold predictions about upsets in week one. And as the games got underway, I was proven right when VCU (No. 11) and the Texas Longhorns (No.11) respectively defeated UNC (No.6) and BYU (No. 6), and was proven right again when UVA (No.3) fell to Tennessee (No.6).

That being said, I’m here to make another bold prediction about the Sweet 16 round of matchups. In particular, about the fate of the remaining No.1 seeds. With the Florida Gators shockingly falling to Iowa (No. 9) in the Round of 32, that leaves Duke, Arizona, and the University of Michigan. 

St. John’s May Deal Duke a Devastating Defeat

Okay, devastating may be a bit of hyperbole here, but I think there’s a real possibility that St. John’s could defeat this year’s overall No. 1 seed, Duke. Let’s be honest, the first week of the tournament, Duke wasn’t as impressive as experts and fans thought they would be. They barely came back in their first-round win over Sienna, and in their second-round game, they got off to a slow start against TCU, only really pulling away in the second half. Therein lies my concern. 

Duke has come out a bit sluggish in the first 20 minutes of gameplay in March Madness, giving teams ample time to score and gain some momentum. So I’m not sure the level of pep talking Coach Jon Scheyer gives his players, but so far it has proven to light a fire under Duke in second halves, that’s been remarkable to see as they claimed victories. However, that’s a vulnerable plan for success in basketball, especially against St. John's.

Leading up to March Madness and through the first week of it, St. John’s has made a habit of claiming victory by starting games with a blazing, and somewhat overwhelming, offense. In the school’s narrow win against Kansas, St. John’s led at the half, 34-26. In the game prior against Northern Iowa, at the half, St. John’s led 47-28. And in the Big East Tournament, St. John’s wound up defeating UConn, and ended the first half of that game, 40-27. 

Here’s the point. St. John’s forces opponents to play catch-up. While Duke is used to playing catch-up in the tournament, that’s incredibly dangerous against a team like St. John’s, as that feeds into their recipe for victory. Additionally, unlike the other teams Duke has faced, St. John’s hasn’t typically come out in the second half flat. If anything, they’re rather consistent with offense. 

Duke is also still having to wrestle with the fact that the bench lacks a bit of depth with Caleb Foster out. While Cayden Boozer (son of NBA great Carlos Boozer) has been stellar stepping into the shoes as the starting point guard, Boozer is playing lots of minutes because the team needs him on the floor with limited backup options. 

When Does Duke Play St. John’s in March Madness 2026? 

Now, could Duke live up to their top ranking and beat St. John’s? Sure, the team can. Let’s not forget, Duke also has an elite defense. Per Fox Sports, Duke ranked third in the regular season, allowing on average 62.5 points per game. 

Tune into the Duke vs St. John’s game on Friday, March 27, at 7:10 pm ET on CBS. You can also watch the game live with a Paramount+ Premium plan subscription.

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